Backing Aston Villa to win fewer than six corners, away from home against United, looks like excellent value.

Key to this selection is the vast difference in Villa’s home and away records, with Unai Emery’s men averaging a massive 7.42 at home, compared to an unimpressive 4.78 when on the road. They’ve won under 5.5 corners in 67% of their league games away from Villa Park, and have maintained a similar record in recent times. Across their last two away clashes, Villa accumulated a combined two corners against Bournemouth and Man City.

Man United have averaged a mere 3.78 corners conceded per game at Old Trafford, restricting their opponents to fewer than six in 78% of matches they’ve hosted. Across both home and away fixtures, this selection has come home in 10 of United’s last 13.  A perfect home record has seen this line land in each of their last six at home.

Wolves have averaged 5.78 corners conceded per 90 this season, which is pretty high but remains firmly below what Brentford would require to upset this selection. Wolves have allowed their opposition fewer than seven in 68% of matches to date, including 72% at Molineux, where this clash will unfold. A strong recent record has rendered this selection profitable in 12 of Wolves’ last 13 league games.

Brentford have offered nothing special in the corners department, particularly away from home, where they’ve averaged just 4.11 per game. Of their 17 games outside of the Gtech Community Stadium, only once have they exceeded the threshold - all the way back in gameweek 23, in a clash with Crystal Palace. Across their last 13 games, only against Man United did Brentford win seven or more corners.

Nottingham Forest’s average of 4.11 corners won per game ranks 14th in the league, offering little to suggest they can outscore Chelsea in this department. Although statistically insignificant, this rate drops marginally to 4.06 when playing at the City Ground. 

Chelsea boast a far healthier rate of 6.22 per match - the 5th-most of any side in the league. Similarly to Forest, they’re seemingly unaffected by the away fans, with their rate staying at 5.94 when on the road.

Nottingham Forest boast the league’s 2nd-worst corner preventative record, averaging 6.41 conceded per game, trailing only Ipswich (6.73). Fortunately for us, it doesn’t get much prettier at home, with Forest still conceding 6.11 in matches they’ve hosted. 

That’s in stark contrast to Chelsea who concede at a rate of just 3.57 per game, with this average barely changing according to whether they’re home or away. Only Arsenal and Man City boast stronger records than the Blues.

Given that Chelsea both win more and concede less than Nottingham Forest, it shouldn’t surprise you to learn that they also have a better record in corner match bets. The Blues have won more corners than their opponents in 26 of their 37 matches to date, meanwhile Forest have failed to do so in 28, having played the same number of games.

Athletic Bilbao have averaged no more than 5.16 corners per match this season, a respectable rate but not one which warrants odds as long as this, given the calibre of their opponents. Athletic have failed to exceed the 5.5 mark in 68% of their league matches to date, including five of their most recent six.

Moreover, Barcelona’s preventative record amongst the best of any side in La Liga, averaging just 3.97 conceded per game. They’ve allowed their opposition fewer than six in 78% of their games, with this line landing in each of their most recent 10 league games. Over this run, they’ve averaged 2.8 conceded per 90, with their opponents not once managing more than four.