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Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Top of the league Tottenham, there’s a sentence few thought we would be hearing after the departure of record goalscorer Harry Kane and a dismal 22/23 campaign; but that is exactly where Ange Postecoglou has managed to drag this new-look Spurs side to.
Despite playing on Monday night, Spurs will go again on Friday, making the short trip across London to Selhurst Park to face Roy Hodgson’s Eagles.
Sitting in 11th, exactly the position Palace seem to love, the South Londoners will be no pushovers, and apart from a tight 1-0 loss to Arsenal, they are unbeaten at home this season, beating Wolves and recording draws with Fulham and Nottingham Forest.
This will be a tough test however, with Spurs absolutely flying at the minute. Unbeaten this season in all competitions (not counting the penalty shoot-out loss to Fulham in the EFL Cup), Spurs have won five of their last six, with their one draw coming away to north London rivals Arsenal.
This could very well be a great game for a bet, and in this article, we will break down the key stats to give you the best possible chance of landing a nice Friday night bet builder winner to set yourself up for the rest of the weekend.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
🧤 Crystal Palace stats: Sam Johnstone likely to be busy
With Spurs likely to dominate the ball, and being a team which is not afraid to have a dig, checking out the goalkeeper saves market could be a solid option.
Palace’s keeper has made at least two saves in all four home games this season, whilst keepers in games against Spurs have made at least three per game, averaging four saves per 90.
Crystal Palace’s goalkeeper to make 3+ saves is priced up at a nice-looking 1.50, whilst backing Sam Johnstone to make four or more saves is sitting at 2.20.
Having kept two home clean sheets in a row, coupled with another for England in the international break, Johnstone will want to forget last weekend’s 4-0 drubbing by putting in another top performance to secure his third home clean sheet in a row.
Prediction: Crystal Palace goalkeeper 3+ saves @ 1.50
Prediction: Crystal Palace goalkeeper 4+ saves @ 2.20
🟨 Tottenham stats: Spurs card happy away from home
In all five of Spurs’ Premier League away fixtures, they have had at least three cards come their way, three cards in three games and two games in which they received four.
Whilst card numbers have certainly dropped since the start of the season, Spurs have continued to pick them up at a remarkable rate. Their opponents have not been as obliging, however, and a Spurs card match bet would have won in four of five.
The one exception is their game at Turf Moor, in which Spurs had three, but Burnley had four. Palace meanwhile have had fewer cards than their opponents in three of their four home games.
Backing the card match bet could be a nice value play, with Palace averaging just 1.5 cards per game at Selhurst Park, or alternatively, you could look to go over 1.5 or even over 2.5 cards for Ange Postecoglou’s side.
Prediction: Tottenham to receive the most cards @ 1.91
Prediction: Tottenham over 1.5 cards @ 1.17
Prediction: Tottenham over 2.5 cards @ 1.67
🎯 Crystal Palace offensive stats: Eagles fly highest against the toughest opponents
Palace perform much better in home games in which teams come to play, rather than to defend. The games in which they have seen less of the ball, against Arsenal and Wolves have resulted in an average xG of 1.55, whereas the games in which Palace had most of the ball, Fulham and Notts Forest saw an average of just 0.55 xG, a stark contrast.
They failed to score in both the Fulham and the Forest games, and lost the xG battle in both, suggesting that tonight may actually be better for any shot-based markets for the Eagles.
They had 14 shots against Arsenal, and 16 against Wolves, but then 7 and 8 in their Fulham and Forest games, so exploring shot-happy Palace players to have 1 or 2 shots tonight could be a nice value option.
Odsonne Edouard averages two shots per game and is priced at 1.33 to take 2+ shots here. He also averages over a shot on target per game, and as the Eagles racked up 10 of those against Wolves, taking him at 1.62 for 1+ shots on target does look appealing.
Prediction: Odsonne Edouard 2+ shots @ 1.33
Prediction: Odsonne Edouard 1+ shot on target @ 1.62
🎯 Tottenham offensive stats: Free-flowing Spurs open the floodgates on the road
Spurs have not struggled going forwards in the opening weeks of the season, racking up 12 goals in five games, and notching at least 1.3 xG in each contest.
They have managed at least 13 shots in each of their five away games, including 13 against Arsenal, and 15 against Luton despite being down a man for the entire second half.
With at least four shots on target in each of their games so far, this market looks appealing, with good odds on all the usual suspects, but a nice value play might be to back Pape Matar Sarr to notch a shot on target, which is sitting at 2.10.
Sarr has had a shot on target in six of Tottenham’s nine Premier League games, the exceptions being against Arsenal, where he was not able to get forward as much, against Luton, where again the red card to Yves Bissouma hampered him going forwards, and at Fulham last time out, where he only completed 61 minutes.
With Bissouma able to pick up some of the defensive slack after his suspension against Fulham, this looks a nice option to really boost those bet builder odds.
Prediction: Pape Matar Sarr 1+ shot on target @ 2.10
🛑 Crystal Palace defensive stats: Palace’s foul-happy right flank
Jordan Ayew is the Crystal Palace player who makes the most fouls, and he looks a likely suspect to commit some here.
The Ghanaian winger will be forced back in this game, and with Richarlison, James Maddison and Son Heung-min all rotating and picking up space on his side, he has numerous threats to deal with. At 1.20 to commit 1+ fouls, and 2.00 to commit 2+, this should be a solid pick for any Crystal Palace v Tottenham bet builder.
Jefferson Lerma is another one to watch. Sitting in behind Ayew, he commits 1.4 fouls per game, and will have to keep a close eye on Maddison, who loves to find pockets on his side. Maddison draws 3 fouls per game, so Lerma is unlikely to get through this one without making at least one foul.
The Colombian midfielder is priced at 1.30 to commit one foul, and 2.40 to commit two.
Prediction: Jordan Ayew 1+ foul @ 1.20
Prediction: Jordan Ayew 2+ fouls @ 2.00
Prediction: Jefferson Lerma 1+ foul @ 1.30
Prediction: Jefferson Lerma 2+ fouls @ 2.40
🛑 Tottenham defensive stats: Fouls destined for Udogie?
When Crystal Palace do get forward, there is an incredibly obvious matchup to go at here. Jordan Ayew draws more fouls than any other Palace player, at 3.44 per game, well clear of anyone else.
He will be up against Spurs’ left-back Destiny Udogie, who commits more fouls than any other Tottenham player, again by a significant distance, his 2.11 nearly being a full foul clear of Yves Bissouma’s 1.38 in second place.
1+ foul is probably not worth taking at 1.17, but 2+ fouls at 1.94 looks very appealing. Udogie has committed 2 fouls in six of his nine Premier League appearances, only failing to do so in their three games against the newly-promoted sides, in which he had much less defensive work to get through.
Up against a wily operator in Ayew, and a better side in Palace, it seems likely that Udogie will be adding to his tally of games with multiple fouls committed.
Prediction: Destiny Udogie 1+ foul @ 1.17
Prediction: Destiny Udogie 2+ fouls @ 1.94
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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