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England v Wales Bet Builder Tips, 20/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

England v Wales Bet Builder Tips, 20/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Wednesday 8 October, 20253 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

In this article...

England welcome Wales to Wembley for a friendly, with Thomas Tuchel looking to fine-tune his England side following patches of positivity in the performances so far.

Craig Bellamy will be optimistic of his nation's chances of claiming their first win over England in some 40 years, with the resurgence that Wales have seen under his tenure so far.

For extra insight, check out these England v Wales Betting Stats available on the Match Centre.

These recommended Best Bet Builder Bookmakers are worth a look for the week's international action.

✚ Add picks to your betslip to place bets directly on Andy's Bet Club.


England v Wales Best Bet Builder Bets
  • England v Wales
  • International Friendly
  • 19:45
4 Selections @ 3.40

England to Win

This England side have the quality to beat any side in the world, but it’s clear that Tuchel still has some work to do to uncover his best and most effective lineup. England have slipped up at Wembley in recent months after a dominant record for the majority of Southgate’s tenure when playing at the national stadium.

They lost to Greece in the Nations League and, more recently, to Senegal in a friendly, which was Tuchel’s first defeat as England manager. England’s 5-0 win over Serbia last time out was England’s best performance under Thomas Tuchel so far, and England can build on that victory here, putting right their performance in the most recent friendly match against Senegal.

Wales have improved under Craig Bellamy, but they are still quite a way off in their development when it comes to challenging England, even in a game like this. Even if Tuchel decides to rotate the side and try something different, England have the quality from the bench to change the game and restore normal order. 

England have won five of their six matches under Tuchel across all competitions and have only conceded three goals across these fixtures, with all three coming in one game.

Over 2.5 Goals

Pickford has been a bystander for large periods in England’s qualifying matches so far, but I expect that to change here with the newfound confidence that Wales are playing with in the final third under Craig Bellamy.

Pickford has been forced into making just one save across England’s five qualifying matches so far, but context is important; these are all games in which England dominated the game and dictated proceedings throughout - it’s unlikely that they are afforded that dominance here.

Dean Henderson featured in goal for England’s most recent friendly, which was at Wembley against Senegal. It was England’s only real test under Tuchel so far, and they really struggled, losing 3-1 in the end and relying on Henderson to keep the score down with the keeper forced into making six saves.

Wales have already shown that they can be an attacking threat through their 4-3 defeat against Belgium a few months ago. As well as the three goals they scored, they drew five saves from Matz Sels, who was in goal for Belgium that day.

Bukayo Saka to have 1+ Shots on Target

I think Saka has been the best player in an England shirt over the last few years. He always performs in a Three Lions shirt and can now nail down his place in the side with players like Madueke threatening to offer competition to his starting role.

Saka has already scored two goals in the Premier League this season and has also netted in the Champions League. He’s had three shots on target across his five appearances domestically (0.78 per 90) and maintained a shot on target average of 1.19 shots on target per 90 across his 25 Premier League appearances last season.

Some players find their level drops slightly when playing on the international stage, given the pressure that accompanies it but Saka regularly rises to the occasion. He scored a crucial goal for England in the European Championships last summer and will want to impress Tuchel here, seeing as he hasn’t really had a chance to show his best skills in front of the Three Lions boss. 

Brennan Johnson to have 1+ Shots

Brennan Johnson is a reliable player for his country and has already scored once during the qualifying campaign, with his goal coming against Belgium in Wales’ 4-3 defeat to Rudi Garcia’s side.

This is a friendly game, so there probably won’t be as much intensity in the game as there usually is, though this is usually the case with qualifiers anyway, as players are looking to stay fit and have one eye on their club duties. Johnson has had five shots across his five appearances in qualifying so far (1.23 per 90).

Johnson will be a threat on the counter here for Wales. England like to push quite high up the pitch, but don’t really have the speed in the backline to account for someone like Johnson running in behind, so the Spurs winger should cause problems. Johnson usually lines up in a more central role for his country, which can offer him a direct path to goal when Wales can get it forward quickly. 

Johnson averaged 2.25 shots per 90 for Wales during their Nations League campaign last year and maintained an average of 2.23 shots per 90 across his 33 Premier League appearances last season, with these shots resulting in 11 Premier League goals.

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England v Wales Best Longshot Bets
  • England v Wales
  • International Friendly
  • 19:45
3 Selections @ 21.00

Both Teams to Score

I think this price is pretty generous. Another angle I was looking at for Wales was the shot market - you can get pretty decent prices for Wales shots and shots on target here if the goal feels a little out of reach. 

Wales are a different side under Craig Bellamy, and they will take the opportunity to be bold here, seeing as it is a friendly encounter. The game that stood out to me when watching Wales in qualifying was their 4-3 defeat to Belgium away from home. 

Even though they lost the game, I hadn’t seen a Welsh side play with that courage and confidence since their famous 2016 side, which reached the latter stages of the European Championship. They can use that mentality and approach here, with England’s defensive setup easily being the most vulnerable aspect of the side.

Wales can cause England problems with their speed in forward areas. Sorba Thomas and Brennan Johnson will cause issues with their runs in behind, which the England backline may struggle to match. There isn’t much speed there, and Wales will look to exploit that as frequently as possible.

Harry Wilson to have 1+ shots on Target

Wilson is a different player when he lines up for his national side. He’s a quality player who performs regularly for Fulham, but the step up in his output is notable when he’s playing on the international stage.

Wilson is currently averaging 0.64 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season; however, you only need to glance at his numbers on the international stage to see how important he is to Bellamy's system. Wilson's average stood at 1.60 shots on target per 90 during the last Nations League campaign, and he has had a shot on target in each of his last eight international games.

Wilson has scored 14 goals across his 64 caps for Wales and also registered 11 assists in these matches. I’d expect Wilson to get a few opportunities from set pieces as well here; he usually takes free kicks for Wales and can use these situations as an avenue to a goal contribution in this friendly match-up.

Jordan James to be Shown a Card

Jordan James is currently on loan at Leicester from Rennes. There’s still a big expectation around the 21-year-old, but our focus is on his aggressive nature in what should be a busy part of the pitch. 

James has already received a booking in qualifying across just 210 minutes of football. He committed three fouls in this period (1.29 per 90). James received four cards across his 16 starts for Rennes in Ligue 1 last season, averaging 1.98 fouls committed per 90 across these fixtures.

It is a friendly, so the bar for cautions is higher than it would usually be, but James should line up against Morgan Rogers here with Jude Bellingham left out of the squad for this camp. Rogers hasn’t been at his best for Villa this season, but was one of England’s best players in their 5-0 win over Serbia and should cause James problems here.

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📂 England v Wales Cheat Sheet

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📈 England v Wales Form & Tactics

England ended their last camp on a real high with their best display under Thomas Tuchel so far in what was seen as their most difficult qualifying game. 

They comfortably overcame Serbia by a 5-0 scoreline with five different scorers. England needed a result like this to wash away some of the noise that was beginning to grow around Tuchel’s attitude and approach to games; that noise can quickly come back, though, if Tuchel’s side were to disappoint here.

Wales are a nation that is growing under Craig Bellamy. The manager wants them to play with no fear, and I’d expect them to take the game to England here, given that there is no jeopardy for them. 

Wales have shown this ambition in qualifying already and would struggle more against a low block, but England’s willingness to pour forward should offer them opportunities in moments of transition.


📔 England v Wales Formation & Team News

Tuchel has once again raised eyebrows with his squad selection for this camp. Managing a nation like England always means that you’re going to have to make some tough decisions when it comes to squad selections, but it does feel like Tuchel has missed a few tap-ins.

Leaving out Jude Bellingham is always going to catch headlines, but that decision is more justified to me than leaving out both Grealish and Wharton - arguably the best two English players in the Premier League so far this season. He has called up Jordan Henderson, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and there is a first Three Lions involvement for Nico O’Reilly, who has filled in for Reece James.

There aren’t too many surprises in the Wales squad, with Bellamy going with his usual crop of players. Bellamy has experimented with a variety of systems in his time as Wales manager, but I’d expect Wales to line up in some iteration of a 5-4-1 or 5-3-2, which is designed to exploit the gaps that England leave at the back.


📊 England v Wales Key Stats

  • Wales have not beaten England in over 40 years.

  • England have won five of their six matches under Tuchel to nil.

  • Craig Bellamy has only lost two of his 12 matches as Wales head coach.

  • Jack Grealish. Adam Wharton and Jude Bellingham are all absent from the England squad for this camp.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, as well as World Cup Predictions for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

For Thursday's football, we also have a World Cup Qualifying Accumulator, as well as Scotland v Greece Bet Builder Tips, Czech Republic v Croatia Betting Tips, and Malta v Netherlands Bet Builder Tips.

Goals bettors can cheer on our Over 2.5 Goals Acca Tips and Both Teams to Score Tips.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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