FC Wil v Neuchatel Xamax
FC Wil were able to maintain their lead at the top of the Challenge League table after an enthralling away encounter against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last Sunday. The visitors led by three goals before the forty-minute mark, proceeded to concede three themselves by the seventieth minute and eventually edged out SLO after a goal from Lavdim Zumberi in the eighty-third minute. FC Wil’s away form has been patchy, to say the least, they have dropped eighteen points on the road compared to just four at home, so they would’ve been more than pleased to get the win to stay ahead on goal difference.
It seems that no matter what Neuchatel Xamax do, it just isn’t enough. The effort is there in spades, but the Xamaxians remain rooted to the bottom of the table after a match against Lausanne that they led in, levelled after failing behind but also ultimately lost with just six minutes to play. Five points separate Xamax from Vaduz and safety and there couldn’t be a more ominous away trip lying in wait as they begin to run out of games to save their season.
Wil have the best home record in the league and unlike last weekend and in most of their away travels, they’re watertight at this venue having conceded just six goals in ten games, three of which came in one match against Schaffhausen while at a man disadvantage. Xamax have picked up just two points away from home all season and their lack of goals simply means that they will be outgunned by the league’s top scorers.
Yverdon-Sport v Vaduz
Yverdon-Sport continued their 100% record coming out of the winter break with another impressive victory as they ran out 2-1 winners at Brugglifeld against Aarau last weekend. Much has been said about the transformation of this team since last season and they deserve every plaudit coming their way as they maintained their grasp on the second automatic promotion spot while moving level on points with leaders Wil. The result also kept them out in front as the best away team in the league, a quirky stat considering they have also conceded the most goals away from home. The main thing is that they’re getting the job done and doing it in style too.
Principality club Vaduz hit a new low last time out as they were handily beaten 3-0 at home by FC Thun. Having beaten Lausanne at the end of November and kept Thun and Wil at bay with two draws more recently, that crushing defeat at home to Thun and away at the lowest scorers in the league Schaffhausen last weekend will have dampened the spirits again at the Rheinpark. Their trip to the Municipal on Friday night will be met with trepidation for a team that competed in the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage this season but are far from those heights now.
The home form of YS isn’t quite as good compared to their performances elsewhere, but other than a three-game winless run in September, they have been fantastic in front of their own fans. They have won the other seven games they have played and are currently on a five-game winning run at home, a streak that included a 3-1 victory over Vaduz. One result against SLO aside, Vaduz have struggled away from home, picking up points only against teams in the bottom half. I think they’ll be on the end of another loss here.
Schaffhausen v Aarau
Schaffhausen, much like their opponents on Friday, are in a state of limbo. Down in seventh, they have no relegation worries to speak of but are too far adrift in regard to the promotion battle at the top. FCS have returned from the winter break in fine fettle though, building on a 1-0 win over Bellinzona in November to pick up a draw and two straight wins in their last three games. Considering they won just four games in the first half of the season and at one stage endured an eight-game winless run, this is a marked improvement from last season’s play-off finalists.
Aarau are in the same boat down in sixth, they are nine points behind the promotion play-off spot and inconsistent form suggests they simply won’t be able to make a last-gasp run to save a season that looked very promising when the first ball was kicked. Having gone three unbeaten pre and post-winter break, as well as having their star striker back, things were looking up at Brugglifeld. However, a humbling 4-1 defeat to Lausanne followed up by a loss at home to Yverdon has served as a reminder of Aarau’s position this season in the promotion discussion.
These were two evenly-matched sides last season as they battled for promotion at the top. Fast-forward twelve months and they are evenly-matched again, just down in the bottom half. I think we’ll see a tight game to represent that at the Wefox Arena. Schaffhausen don’t score or concede a huge amount of goals, but they are capable of continuing their recent scoring run against a team that has the second-worst away defence in the league. On the flip side, Aarau have scored the third-highest amount of goals away from home and they have the attacking quality to break through this stubborn defence.
ADO Den Haag v PEC Zwolle
Seven matches in the Eerste Divisie this Friday and the most interesting game is the one between ADO and PEC Zwolle, as they are the most in-form teams at the moment. PEC Zwolle are heading straight for promotion. They are 15 points clear of the number three and only a massive screw-up in the last 14 games could cost them direct promotion. PEC are finding the goal pretty easy at the moment, with strikers Lennart Thy and Younes Taha in great form. They also see star player Thomas van der Belt return from a suspension for this game, so they should be at their strongest.
ADO Den Haag had a terrible start to the season, but since manager Dick Advocaat took over from Dirk Kuyt, their faith quickly turned. Advocaat lost his first game with ADO, but has since gone on a 9-match unbeaten streak. Star players like Thomas Verheydt and Ricardo Kishna, who both handed in a transfer request under Kuyt, changed their attitude, withdrew their request and became important again. With Joey Sleegers they signed another attacking player with proven scoring credentials in the Eerste Divisie.
Even though Advocaat is known to clean up defence first, they have most of their quality going forward, while the defence still looks a bit shaky at times. Against the attacking quality from PEC, that should mean a match with lots of scoring opportunities and several goals.
Telstar v Jong PSV
Telstar have been in good form recently. They won three from their last four games and are slowly climbing up to the play-off spots. They are also doing well in the third phase and winning that would directly guarantee them a spot in the play-offs. Usually, they aren’t creating a lot of chances, but since they barely give away anything in defence, one goal was enough in each of the last two games.
The last victory was against the Utrecht academy team and Telstar are getting another one of those this week with Jong PSV, but the opponent don’t seem to have a strong squad going into this game. The first team are playing the Europa League match in Sevilla on Thursday at 8pm and manager Ruud van Nistelrooij has decided to take several of the Jong PSV players with him. That is the case for Mathijs Tielemans and Mohamed Nassoh, the two starting central midfielders for Jong PSV and centre back Emmanuel van de Blaak. They will almost certainly not get any game time in the EL, so there is a chance they’ll still appear for Jong PSV the next day, but the double travel on the day of the game won’t be ideal.
Apart from that, players like Fode Fofana, Richard Ledezma, Savio, who are in between the first team and Jong PSV aren’t available for either of the teams due to fitness issues and goalkeeper Kjell Peersman is ill and might not recover in time for Friday. That makes Telstar favourite to take the victory in their own stadium.
Heracles Almelo v Willem II
Willem II are finally on the way up with three victories in a row, but they haven’t faced a challenge like this one, against a favourite for promotion Heracles Almelo. Willem II have had a relatively steady defence all season, but under previous manager Kevin Hofland it seemed like they forgot how to go forward, as they barely created anything. It cost Hofland his job and Reinier Robbemond has clearly worked on the attacking strength. Willem II scored nine times in the last three games and the three victories were deserved.
However, against Heracles Almelo they’ll face a much stronger opponent. Heracles are looking good for promotion behind PEC Zwolle, but most importantly, they are almost unbeatable on their own plastic pitch. They won nine from the 11 games played in their own stadium this season. Their only defeat came against PEC Zwolle a couple of weeks ago, but in that game, Heracles missed several starters. Including Anas Ouahim, who became MOTM last week in the 2-0 victory over MVV after scoring both goals.
Heracles aren’t in the brilliant form they had at the start of the season, but in the home games on the synthetic pitch that many opponents fear, they are still very dominant with a season xG of 3.73 against 1.18, so I’d put my money on a home victory.
Wexford FC v Waterford
What a way to start the new First Division season as local rivals Wexford and Waterford clash in a game that could give us plenty of clues for the year ahead. Waterford are the short priced favourites to win the league this season after blowing their chance at promotion in last years play-off final while Wexford have undergone a winter of major investment.
James Keddy, who was Longford Town’s assistant last season, has managed to bring a large chunk of last season’s Town squad with him as he steps into management for the first time having been a very well respected player in the League of Ireland. As a result, expectations are probably higher than ever before at Wexford and should the so called “big two” Waterford and Galway fail to fire, Wexford could be a potential dark horse for the title.
However, Waterford should have absolutely no excuses this season with the Blues having all the resources to go and finally secure a return to the top flight. While Waterford have lost their two best players to Fleetwood Town, the fact Fleetwood are a sister club of Waterford means they have direct access to promising talent and have duly tapped into that resource with Barry Baggley and Christopher Conn-Clarke both arriving at the RSC while Connor Parsons (Wycombe Wanderers), Giles Phillips (Aldershot Town), and Charles Ondo (Huddersfield Town – loan) are further UK imports this season.
Given Waterford’s knowledge and contacts in the British market, there’s a good chance they’ll unearth a gem or two among their crop of relatively unknown signings just as they did with Phoenix Patterson and Junior Quitirna who were the two best players in the First Division by some margin before their moves to Fleetwood in recent weeks.
Both Wexford and Waterford have unbelievable options in the final third with Jordan Adeyemo a proven finisher who has signed for Wexford from Longford Town where he netted 8 times in just 13 appearances while Ronan Coughlan has signed for Waterford and is stepping down from the top-flight. If fit and hungry, Coughlan could be a class above in the First Division.
Wexford have been scoring plenty of goals in pre-season while Waterford were the divisions top scorers last season and will go out to win every game this season. This should be a cracker.
Kerry FC v Cobh Ramblers
History will be made at Mounthawk Park in Tralee on Friday night as Kerry FC play their first ever game at senior League of Ireland level. The club from the Kingdom have been building towards this moment in the underage leagues in recent years but now they step up to play with the big boys.
Given Cobh Ramblers were the bottom side in the First Division last season you’d think this would be an ideal opener for Kerry but the visitors have put far more investment into the playing budget than we’ve seen for years with Shane Keegan signing some really good players.
Goalkeeper Lee Steacy has Premier Division and promotion winning experience and arrives from Drogheda United while strikers Charlie Lyons and Wilson Waweru have signed for one of the title favourites Galway and will enjoy regular game time at Cobh.
However, it’s the signing of former Ipswich Town midfielder Jack Doherty that really announced the start of a big winter at Cobh with Doherty one of the best number tens in the division when he’s fully fit and on a going day.
While I don’t see Cobh breaking into the play-offs this season, they most certainly should show big improvement from last season and should have a few clubs behind them. One of those clubs should be Kerry, as newcomers and an amtuer side with a mix and match of local youngsters and journeymen this season should all be about establishing the club as a viable LOI outfit going forward but absolutely nothing is expected of them. Results this season will very much be a bonus.
Dundalk v UCD
Dundalk overachieved last season as Stephen O’Donnell put together a squad from scratch and overcame some key injuries throughout the season to deliver a third place finish and with it a return to European competition. Time doesn’t stand still in this game though and the Dundalk fans are a demanding bunch having been spoilt with domestic and European success over the last decade. However, there is now guarantee the Lilywhites will be able to build on what they achieved last year with Stephen O’Donnell’s squad looking on the thin side ahead of a campaign in which they’ll be fighting in the league, FAI Cup, and Europe.
While five new additions have arrived at Oriel Park during the off-season, they are all relative gambles arriving from the UK. With Shamrock Rovers and Derry City having the pick up the cream of the crop in Ireland, it’s proved difficult for clubs like Dundalk to shop within the Irish market.
All of that is for another day however, as Dundalk have been handed the ideal opening fixture with relegation favourites UCD set to visit Oriel Park on Friday night. The Students performed minor miracles in staying in the top-flight last season and repeating that feat again this term will be doubly difficult after a raft of departures from the UCD Bowl.
Dundalk were almost foot perfect at home last season with O’Donnell’s boys losing just once and winning 12 of their 18 home matches. This is a dream opening fixture for Dundalk who should win with a bit to spare with bigger tests to come in the coming weeks.
Shelbourne v Drogheda United
7th hosts 8th from last year’s Premier Division as beaten FAI Cup finalists Shelbourne welcome a Drogheda United side who are being tipped to struggle for survival going into the new campaign. Kevin Doherty did a fantastic job with the Drogs last season as he built a team that was extremely difficult to beat, especially at home, and kept the part-timers up without much to any drama at all.
Drogheda have paid the price again though for being a strongly performing part-time team with a number of their top performers from last season moving on.
As for Damien Duff’s Shelbourne, as they’ve commonly become known, last season can also be viewed as a success for them as the Ireland legend reestablished the Reds in the top-flight following promotion while he also brought Shelbourne to a first cup final since 2011. Shels were totally outclassed by Derry City in the final, and so they should have been, after all it was 2nd v 7th in terms of league standings but it certainly did serve as an eye opener as to how much further Shels have to travel if they are to recapture the glory days of the early noughties.
In terms of Shelbourne’s off-season, Duff has made some nice signings in the middle of the park and at the back but there still appears to be a void waiting to be filled by a proven number nine.
Drogheda have lost on their last three visits to Tolka Park, including a 6-0 humbling here at the end of last season, so this looks an ideal season opener for Damien Duff’s Reds. Shelbourne were the fourth lowest scoring side in the division last season and scoring goals may prove to be an issue again this season.
However, having won their last 3 games at home against Drogheda, including a 6-0 thrashing towards the end of last season (yes, I see the irony), this looks a nice opening game for the Dublin club.
Greenock Morton v Dundee
It’s fourth against second in the Championship on Saturday, with Morton and Dundee both clubs seeking to bounce back from recent difficult spells. Both picked up good wins last weekend, with the Greenock side defeating league leaders Queen’s Park 3-2 at home and the Dark Blues overcoming Cove Rangers 3-0 at Dens Park.
Saturday’s match between the clubs is likely to follow a similar pattern. Seven of Morton’s 10 home matches this season have seen over 2.5 goals, while the last two alone have seen eight goals. The Tons’ recent fixtures have had a strong tendency to be open games. Seven of their last nine league matches have seen at least three goals while both sides have found the net in all but one of their last 10.
Dundee, meanwhile, boast strong offensive potential, with 40 goals scored in 23 matches. Last weekend’s easy win over Cove was testimony to their attacking strength. James McPake’s side have forged a reptation for being strong at the back and with only 26 goals conceded this season they have the strongest rear-guard in the Championship. However, they are up against a Morton side that has scored 10 times in its last four home matches.
Both previous matches between these clubs finished 0-0 this season – the only scoreless draws that either side has played out in the league – but given that both games produced an xG of above 2, these can be seen as statistical quirk. Expect something to give in this match.
Sassuolo v Napoli
There are two ways in which this bet could come in. The obvious one is that Napoli are superb at football and they seem to be making a habit of 3-0 victories.
Their last two Serie A matches have been won by that scoreline and it is as if Luciano Spalletti and his players have figured out the perfect level of exertion needed to win a game comfortably.
Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are just scoring goals for fun right now and the likes of Hirving Lozano, Piotr Zielinski and Stanislav Lobotka are making it easy for them. Sassuolo possess one of the worst defences in Serie A this season and it is almost unfathomable that they could keep Napoli out at the Mapei Stadium on Friday night.
The other way this bet could come in, though, is if Sassuolo manage to take any of the chances that they likely will create as they have plenty of talented attackers and they have nothing to lose against the runaway league leaders.
The Neroverdi create a lot of chances and look dangerous against whoever they face, they just don’t convert enough of them. That is evidenced by when they beat AC Milan 5-2. Chance creation isn’t the problem and occasionally they do find the back of the net.
The likes of Domenico Berardi or Armand Lauriente may well grab a goal in this one, but expect Napoli to already be two or three goals ahead at that stage.
Auxerre v Lyon
Are Lyon finally back? It’s always a little difficult to tell, with the Rhone side capable of throwing in a random poor result at apparently any moment. Nevertheless, the signs are positive for the moment. A run of five wins in six, including back-to-back home victories against Lille and Lens.
Auxerre, meanwhile, are treading water at best. With one win since the summer transfer window closed, they have spent the season in quite lamentable form and even a change of coach has not come close to solving their problems. They had been on a seven-match losing streak before recent draws against Reims and bottom side Angers.
Scoring goals has been the hosts’ problem. They have been shut out in six of their last nine league matches.
Lyon, meanwhile, have kept three clean sheets in six in the league and have only conceded one in their last three away matches. AJA, on the other hand, have failed to score in their last three home fixtures.
OL should get the win here, but at present there is some risk to be factored in for a team that is capable of putting in a woeful showing at any time. Instead, there is a greater likelihood of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
Lyon’s most notable recent slips in recent times – against Brest (0-0), Nantes (0-0) and Clermont (0-1) – have come because they have failed in front of goal. Top scorer Alexandre Lacazette misses this match due to a thigh injury, so if there is to be an upset, it may well be because OL have misfired.
And given Auxerre’s lamentable offensive record – they have scored 19 in 23 games – backing against both teams scoring looks very generous at evens.
Guaireña v Cerro Porteño
The albiceleste are back in the Parque de Guairá looking for their first home win of the season and their first ever win over Cerro Porteño. The game will mark Facundo Sava’s debut as manager of El Ciclón as the former Fulham striker takes the reins from interim manager Diego Gavlián.
Guaireña relied on a last gasp equalizer from defender Paulo Lima to salvage a point last weekend against Trinidense. Until now Roberto Torres’ style of play hasn’t been working, Milton Maciel and Antoino Marín were his wingers but couldn’t cause any kind of impact. Mario Otazú must be pushing for a starting spot, the left winger has been involved in the side’s last two goals despite only spending 63 minutes on the pitch. Defensively there are plenty of question marks around the side that has conceded five goals in their opening three games. Torres has persisted with the same central midfield pair of Juan Aguilar and youngster Marcelo Acosta but the latter is expected to make way for veteran Miguel Paniagua who returns from a three-match suspension.
Cerro Porteño have traditionally traveled well to Villarrica winning four of their five games there. It has also been a happy hunting ground for striker Robert Morales who has scored three goals in his last two visits to the stadium. The azulgrana’s problem so far this season has been doing enough to win games, unbeaten after three matches but they’ve only scored one goal in each match. Sava averaged 1.4 goals per game at his most recent club Patronato and 1.6 per game before that in Quilmes, so there is a hope he can spark the offense into life. There are no fresh injury worries, but the doubt remains over how Sava will structure his defence with three different players partnering Patiño at center back so far.
Most recently Cerro won 3-1 against Guaireña on the final day of the 2022 Clausura season, but that match was played in Encaranción. Their last two games in Villarrica ended in 2-0 wins and despite all their issues, the new manager bounce should help them to another away win.
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