The late afternoon game in the Premier League sees Aston Villa travel to Elland Road as both teams try to enter the top half of the table. Leeds started the season very well with seven points from their first three games but are winless in three since. Villa on the other hand started the season very slowly with just three points in their first five games, but a four-point return against Man City and Southampton has made their league position more acceptable.
Leeds have been very good at home so far this season, beating Wolves, comfortably beating Chelsea, and a point against Everton. Goals have not been a problem and they have scored 10 in their first six. Whilst they are only 13th going into this game, they will feel confident that this will be higher because they have at least one, if not two, games in hand on most teams. They had been fairly solid at the back in their first few games but an Ivan Toney hattrick in a 5-2 loss at Brentford before the international break has given rise to a few concerns. They will be boosted by the return of Rasmus Kristensen and Rodrigo, even though Jesse Marsch will not be there due to a touchline ban.
Aston Villa’s away form so far this season has been a massive cause for concern, losing all three at Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, conceding eight. Whilst some of the pressure has been taken off Gerrard because of their two most recent results before the break, they will still need to find a good run of form to continue marching up the table. Villa will be without Boubacar Kamara who went off injured against Southampton, and they have also lost Lucas Digne over the break. Added to long term absentees Diego Carlos and Matty Cash, three of Villa’s starting back four will be missing for Sunday’s game.
Leeds United v Aston Villa Bet Builder Tips
Leeds to Win
As mentioned before, Leeds have started very well at home with seven points from their first three games – the most noteworthy of which was a 3-0 defeat of Chelsea. In addition, this has been deserved, with over 1.5 xGF per game and around 1.0 xGA per 90, and they will be hoping to continue that run of form here. They will be boosted by players returning from injury and this should be the sort of game that can get them back playing well and getting wins.
Aston Villa on the other hand have been abysmal away from home. Not only do they have no points, but the performances have not been good, conceding over 2xGA per game and having less than 0.7xGF in the course of these games. Given that they are missing three of their four starting defenders, as well as Kamara in midfield, Leeds should have plenty of opportunities.
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Prediction: Leeds to Win
Both Teams to Score
Leeds have seen twenty goals in their first six games. They have managed to score in five of these games, only failing to do so at Brighton, where they were perhaps unfortunate not to score with their xGF of 1.07. They also have conceded in every game with the exception of the Chelsea game. Both teams have scored in four of the six games and both teams have had over 1xGF in five of the games. Last time out, Brentford racked up 2.85xGF and Leeds managed 2.21xG for in London.
Aston Villa have been extremely poor away from home but have been much better recently and this gives me hope that they can find the back of the net at least once. They have conceded eight goals in their three away games this season but have also managed to score in two. Although last time out against Southampton they kept their first clean sheet of the season, given the difficulties they’ve got at the back I don’t fancy them to keep another one here. They’ve scored in six of their last seven and Leeds have been fairly suspect defensively at times this season.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score
Over 5.5 Leeds Corners
As explained earlier, I fancy Leeds to have plenty of opportunities and to attack at every potential opportunity. Across the season, they have averaged 5.67 corners per game, and at home have managed 20 in their three home games so far. Aston Villa have afforded plenty of opportunities for their opponents and concede an average of 5.14 corners per game. Away from home, this number rises to 6.33 per game, and with their injuries at the back, I expect them to be on the back foot, allowing Leeds plenty of chances to get forward.
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Prediction: Over 5.5 Leeds Corners
Luis Sinisterra to have 1+ Shot on Target
As explained above, I expect Leeds to dominate the game and have plenty of opportunities. One of their new signings, Luis Sinisterra, has come into the team and has performed very well. He is still being eased in and is yet to complete more than 63 minutes in a match, but has scored three goals already, one on each of his starts. With Rodrigo’s absence he has had to step up and he certainly has done that. In just under 250 minutes of football, he has managed four shots on target, including at least one in each of his starts. This is not something to be surprised about as he has managed over 1 shot on target per 90 across his career so far. Last season in the Eredivisie, he averaged almost three shots per game and 1.27 shots on target per 90. The Colombian should have plenty of opportunities again against either Villa full back (likely to be Ashley Young or Augustinsson) who are both back-ups. He also was only given a half in both of Colombia’s games over the international break and should start here given that the game is the late afternoon game on Sunday.
Aston Villa have conceded 19 shots on target in their three away games so far, including eight at both Selhurst Park and the Emirates. In these games, at least one winger has managed a shot on target, and in the Palace game, both Zaha and Ayew managed two each. Martinelli also managed two for the Gunners. Sinisterra can play on both sides, and I expect him to attack both defenders, particularly an ageing Ashley Young, and as their main threat, I think he’ll manage to get a shot on target here.
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Prediction: Luis Sinisterra to have 1+ Shot on Target
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Predicted Line-ups
Leeds United predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Kristensen, Cooper, Koch, Struijk; Adams, Roca; Sinisterra, Aaronson, Harrison; Bamford
Aston Villa predicted XI (4-3-3): Martinez; Young, Konsa, Mings, Augustinsson; McGinn, Luiz, Ramsey; Buendia, Watkins, Coutinho
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How to watch Leeds United v Aston Villa in the Premier League?
📅 When is Leeds United v Aston Villa? / Sunday, 2nd October 2022, 4:30PM
🏟 Where is Leeds United v Aston Villa? / Elland Road (Leeds)
📺 What TV channel is Leeds United v Aston Villa on? / Sky Sports Main Event
🟨 …And who is the referee for Leeds United v Aston Villa? / S. Attwell 🏴
