I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again; The Cincinnati Bengals are being underestimated. Last week they travelled to Buffalo as 5.5 point underdogs and blew Josh Allen’s Bills out the water winning 27-10. They capitalised on Allen’s shakiness and Tre Flowers was the star of a lockdown Bengals defence, allowing Bills receivers few yards after catch and blitzing with great efficiency.

Their defence shut down Allen and the Bills, but Joe Burrow showed his class with 2 early passing touchdowns and a third that was dubiously ruled out to Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow had a superb game, scrambling for 31 yards on 6 attempts and throwing for 242 yards and the 2 passing touchdowns that we tipped last weekend.

The Chiefs, despite all their talent especially with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, come into this game as underdogs in my eyes and have a tendency to struggle against Burrow and the Bengals. 3 wins on the spin has led to Bengals players calling Arrowhead, “Burrowhead”. A dominant week 17 win last year was then capped off with victory in the AFC Championship in this exact fixture 12 months ago. The Chiefs secondary have struggled in coverage against Chase and the Bengals wideouts, allowing Burrow to sling it deep. Couple that track record with Patrick Mahomes’ injury and I’m taking the Bengals to cover a 7.5 point spread.

Isiah Pacheco, despite being a 7th round pick in the 2022 Draft, has inherited the RB1 role in this Chiefs offence, beating out Clyde Edwards-Helaire who was taken in the first round a couple years ago. Jerrick McKinnon has taken some of the snaps relying on his receiving threat to earn a snap % but I expect Pacheco to sail over his rushing prop today.

Pacheco had 95 yards in his first playoff game last week and came close to his second career 100 yard game. He has been extremely consistent averaging 5 yards per carry with a longest run of just 31 yards, showing his ability to gain first downs for the Chiefs offence. Mahomes’ injury limits his ability to scramble out the pocket and he will be restricted which will leads to the Chiefs relying on running backs to make up for his lack of mobility. In order to provide that dynamic aspect of their offence, I expect the Chiefs to rely on Pacheco more than when he racked up 66 yards against the Bengals in their first meeting.

Travis Kelce had 14 receptions last week, single-handedly dominating the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars average the 3rd most receptions to tight ends in the league and the Bengals average the 6th most so I’m expecting a similar story today, particularly as Mahomes hits his checkdown more when he can’t evade pressure and doesn’t want to put his ankle at risk.

When Mahomes has been at his evasive best, Kelce has still managed 4 receptions minimum every game and I expect the Chiefs Quarterback to lean on his All-Pro tight end more than usual today, particularly with his experience at this level. Kelce has 13 receiving touchdowns in his last 12 playoff games, including one in the Super Bowl. I like Kelce to see plenty of the ball today with him cashing his over 6.5 receptions prop. He won’t have the 14 like last week or maybe not even 10 like last year’s AFC Championship when Mahomes split targets between Kelce and Hill, but I like him to have over 6.5.

Ja’Marr Chase announced himself more than ever against the Chiefs in week 17 of the regular season last year against the Chiefs. It turns out 11 receptions for 266 yards with 3 touchdowns does that. The Chiefs secondary couldn’t handle Burrow or Chase, as Burrow threw 446 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I like Chase to have quite a few receiving yards today as he looks to beat the Chiefs deep down the field but also find the end zone at a price of Evens. Chase has scored in 5 of his last 6 games with 9 total touchdowns in his last 9, similar numbers to Travis Kelce who recorded us a winner last week. Chase had 97 yards without a touchdown against the Chiefs last time but with 4 total touchdowns in the two games prior, I back Chase to find the end zone. He averages 9.8 targets against the Chiefs with 8 catches for 139 yards on average. Couple that with the Chiefs ranking 31st against opponents’ wide receiver 1’s and this is great value.