At this point, it doesn’t feel like a Super Bowl without Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are looking to capture their third Super Bowl win in the last five seasons. A Tom Brady-like Super Bowl run.

The Chiefs offense lulled everyone to sleep throughout the season and they are peaking at the perfect time. They have scored 80 fewer points in this regular season than any other year during the Mahomes era. Obviously, that didn’t matter because they are in the Big Game yet again.

The Chiefs were road underdogs in back-to-back play-off games and came out victorious. Betting against Mahomes is a dangerous game. He is the best quarterback in the league. Despite having a relatively weak wide receiver core, Mahomes will find a way to be competitive.

Does Mahomes have one more great performance in him this season against an elite 49ers defense? His talents will be put to the test. The 49ers play zone defense on a majority of their plays. With a stout defensive line that generates pressure, they have the luxury of only rushing four players. In that scenario, Mahomes has thrown the second-most interceptions with 10.

At the end of the day, it’s Patrick Mahomes.

The main reason why the Chiefs offense looks “back” is the resurrection of Travis Kelce. For the first time since the 2015 season, Kelce finished the year without 1,000 receiving yards. His five receiving touchdowns were also a near career low as he has only caught one since October 22nd.

In the play-offs, Travis Kelce has been a new man. He is coming off a perfect 11 reception game on 11 targets for 116 yards and one touchdown. In the Divisional Round, Kelce hauled in two touchdowns in a three-point victory over the Bills. Even at 34-years-old, Kelce still has juice left.

The 49ers defense will likely be honing in on Kelce, but they have already given up big games to opposing tight ends this season. Trey McBridge had 102 yards on 10 receptions. TJ Hockenson had 86 yards on 11 receptions. Last week, Sam LaPorta had 97 yards on nine receptions in the Conference Championship game. Kelce will be able to exploit this matchup.

Being Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 option, Kelce will be peppered with targets. It’s not that crazy to bet Kelce to win the Super Bowl MVP at 13.0. He may even propose after the game.

In his second year in the league, Isiah Pacheco has fully taken over the Chiefs backfield. Over his last eight games, Pacheco is averaging 83 rushing yards per game with eight total touchdowns. He has scored in each of the Chiefs three play-off games and is 1.83 to score in the Super Bowl.

The weather has been dicey in all three Chiefs play-off games and they have leaned heavily on Pacheco. He had 63 total carries for 254 rushing yards and was even active in the passing game, catching all six of his targets.

Pacheco will get most of his rushing attempts out of shotgun, where he averages 2.77 yards after contact per carry. He is a down-hill runner who embraces contact. Shockingly, the 49ers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry out of shotgun, making this a strong matchup.

Pacheco’s rushing prop is 65.5 yards. He has cleared that in all three play-off games and in seven of his last nine games. The 49ers have shown a tendency to give up explosive plays on the ground. The Packers and Lions combined to rush for 318 yards in their play-off games. Pacheco will get plenty of opportunities to break one.

The X Factor for the San Francisco 49ers is quarterback Brock Purdy. He has the best quartet of weapons in football at his disposal, including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Compared to most quarterbacks, Purdy’s job is relatively simple.

Purdy is the only question mark we have that is preventing us from tipping up the 49ers. He has played against two top-5 pass defenses (Cleveland and Baltimore) and did not fare well in either matchup. Purdy combined to complete 50.8% of his passing attempts, while throwing one touchdown and five interceptions.

Purdy will have his hands full against a Chiefs defense that ranks second in pressure rate and fourth in passing yards allowed with 176.5 per game. The 49ers will not be able to afford a slow start like they did against the Packers and Lions. Purdy was able to make plays in both play-off games to ultimately lead the 49ers to two massive come-from-behind victories.

Which Purdy will show up in the Super Bowl? The one who was the favorite to win the NFL MVP before Week 16 or the Purdy we have seen in the first half of the last two play-off games?

For as good as the Chiefs are defending the pass, they are nearly the opposite against the run. They have allowed 113.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 18th in the league. This will their run defense’s toughest test to date, trying to tackle the elusive Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey was the regular season rushing leader by nearly 300 yards this season. After a lull during the middle of the year, McCaffrey has been dominant recently. Over his last eight games, including the play-offs, McCaffrey is averaging 102.75 rushing yards per game with 11 total touchdowns. He is the main reason the 49ers are in the Super Bowl after reaching paydirt twice in each of their play-off games.

Diving a little deeper, the 49ers use a zone blocking scheme on a majority of their rushing attempts. The Chiefs run defense against zone blocking ranks 29th in the league, allowing 4.62 yards per carry. McCaffrey’s 90.5 rushing yard prop feels a little light for Super Bowl 58.

McCaffrey is also Brock Purdy’s security blanket in the passing game. He has caught at least four receptions in each of his last five games with 7.4 targets per game during that time.

Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are all intriguing players to watch, but the former has the most upside for a potential game-breaking moment. The dual-threat wide receiver has scored 12 total touchdowns this season, seven receiving and five rushing.

After only playing nine snaps against the Packers in the Divisional Round due to injury, Samuel was heavily involved in the game plan against the Lions in the NFC Championship. He hauled in eight receptions on nine targets for 89 yards. He also had three rushing attempts. The 49ers want to get the ball in Samuel’s hands as much as possible to take pressure off of Brock Purdy.

In the 11 games when Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle were all healthy, Samuel led the trio with a 22.8% target share. That does not include any of his elite rushing upside. Against a two-high safety look that the Chiefs defense led the league in this season, Samuel had an even higher target share at 27.2%. Samuel will be heavily involved in this matchup.

The best way to get Samuel exposure onside is with his combined rushing and receiving line of 79.5 yards or his anytime touchdown prop at 2.35.