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Below is a breakdown of all our NFL predictions ahead of Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday. We have eight best bets for this game, so feel free to combine them into any potential bet builder/accumulator you are placing.
Our NFL expert has also provided his top Super Bowl players to watch, including his expert player prop picks. We’ve also created a list of the best NFL bookmakers to get over £180 in free bets for the Super Bowl.
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Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
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Kick Off: 23:30
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Watch Live: ITV1 / Sky Sports NFL
Last year’s Super Bowl winners, the Kansas City Chiefs, are back once again for a fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five years. The 11-6 Chiefs topped the AFC West but were only the third seeds in the AFC overall, overcoming the Dolphins and the Bills to set up an AFC Championship game away to the Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs prevailed 17-10, keeping the Ravens at arms’ length after taking the lead in the second quarter, securing their path to Las Vegas.
The San Francisco 49ers lost out to the Chiefs in 2019’s Super Bowl, and they will be looking for revenge here as they aim for their first NFL Championship since 1995. The 12-5 49ers topped the NFC West and the conference as a whole, giving them a bye through to the Divisional Round. They defeated the Green Bay Packers en route to the NFC Championship game, where they overcame a 24-7 half-time deficit to break Detroit hearts as they beat the Lions 34-31.
The 49ers are favoured by 2.5 points on the spread, so we should expect a tight game that comes down to the wire to decide the winner of Super Bowl LVIII.
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Super Bowl LVIII Player Prop Best Bets
Patrick Mahomes – Over 1.5 Passing TDs
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Odds: 1.62
The Kansas City Chiefs offense was average for most of the season, but have turned a new leaf during the postseason. They are now one win away from their third NFL Championship in the last five years.
Two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes had one of the worst regular seasons of his career. He threw a career-high 14 interceptions and was sacked 27 times. Mahomes also had a career-low 63.0 QBR and a 92.6 quarterback rating. However, Mahomes has been a completely different quarterback in the playoffs.
Getting value for Mahomes to throw for over 1.5 passing touchdowns is a steal in the Super Bowl. Mahomes struggled against the Buccaneers in his second Super Bowl when the Chiefs were routed by Tom Brady 31-9. However, in his two Super Bowls that he won, Mahomes threw five touchdowns.
Being the Super Bowl MVP favourite, it would be shocking if Mahomes did not throw for at least two touchdowns in this matchup. He is the best quarterback in the league and shines when the lights are the brightest. Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns is a great way to get any Super Bowl bet builder underway.
Brock Purdy – Over 246.5 Passing Yards
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Odds: 1.83
Brock Purdy did find himself in two positive throwing game scripts against the Packers and Lions, but threw for over 250 yards in both contests. He is the X Factor in this Super Bowl and will need to have a big game for the 49ers to come out victorious. The Chiefs are stout against the pass, but volume is key for Purdy. He has averaged 35.5 passing attempts in the playoff and averaged 259.5 yards per game.
It certainly helps that Purdy is playing with the best quartet in the league. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are sensational capturing yards after the catch. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan has so many plays for Purdy to get the ball out quick and in the hands of the 49ers elite pass catchers. Purdy has also displayed the ability to connect on deep passes, which boosts this prop.
If Patrick Mahomes can get off to a fast start, Purdy will need to play catch-up, which makes for great correlation with our first player prop. In the Big Game, this line feels light for Purdy. Even if he struggles early again, the volume will be there in catch-up mode.
Christian McCaffrey – Over 89.5 Rushing Yards
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Odds: 1.83
This may seem high, but McCaffrey has cleared this line in five of his last six regular season games. He rushed for 98 yards against the Packers and 90 against the Lions in negative game scripts.
This player prop comes down to the matchup. As previously mentioned, the Chiefs struggle way more against the run than against the pass. During the regular season, they allowed 113.2 rushing yards per game, which ranked below average in the league. They also never faced anyone like Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey led the league in rushing with a career-high 1,459 rushing yards. He also posted a career-high 5.4 rushing yards per attempt. With the 49ers zone blocking scheme, McCaffrey will shred the Chiefs run defense that ranks 29th against zone blocking. With Deebo Samuel healthy, they do not throw as many dump-offs to McCaffrey. However, they must get the ball in his hands and that will be on the ground.
McCaffrey can get chunk yardages on any given play. He has scampered for 25 or more yards on one carry in five of his last six games.
Isiah Pacheco – Over 67.5 Rushing Yards
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Odds: 1.83
The last player prop best bet is Isiah Pacheco over 67.5 rushing yards. Pacheco has gone over this prop line in four consecutive games, while averaging 96 rushing yards per game during that time. The Chiefs have leaned heavily on the run game in the playoffs giving Pacheco the ball 63 times.
Volume is key for this prop. Pacheco has 24 rushes in two of his three playoff games. Feeding their No. 1 running back will be important for time of possession for the Chiefs. This correlates with our Mahomes prop. If the Chiefs can work Pacheco on the ground, Mahomes may not be needed as much through the air.
Over the last two playoff games, the 49ers run defense has been suspect. They allowed the Packers and Lions to rush for a combined 318 yards. The 49ers can be beaten in the trenches where Pacheco lives.
Like McCaffrey, Pacheco can break a long run at any given time. However, he is also elite in capturing yards after contact. Due to Pacheco’s success on the ground, the Chiefs are no longer an extreme pass heavy offense. This would make it four-straight games for Pacheco to rush for 68+ yards.
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Super Bowl LVIII Anytime TD Scorer Best Bets
Christian McCaffrey – Anytime TD Scorer
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Odds: 1.40
Leading the way on this four-leg touchdown parlay is the biggest favourite of the game to score – Christian McCaffrey. Hitting paydirt is what McCaffrey does best. In his two playoff games, McCaffrey scored twice on the ground in each game. He could have scored three times last week, but had to leave due to injury.
McCaffrey tied Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert for the most touchdowns in the league this season with 21. He had 14 on the ground and seven through the air, leading the team in both categories. McCaffrey scored a touchdown in 17-straight games, which tied the NFL record.
McCaffrey has scored at least one touchdown either through the air or on the ground in 15 of his 18 games played. In the red zone, the 49ers are looking to get McCaffrey the ball in any way possible. There is a reason why he is the heavy favourite to score in this game.
Being Brock Purdy’s safety blanket is also beneficial to McCaffrey’s outlook for this game. He will likely get around 25 touches in this game. All he must do is score once in those 25 touches and we are golden.
Isiah Pacheco – Anytime TD Scorer
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Odds: 1.73
Since fully taking over the Chiefs backfield, Isiah Pacheco has been a touchdown machine. He has scored in each of the Chiefs’ three playoff games and in six of his last seven games. The second-year pro has also been more involved in the passing game with the lack of wide receiver options Patrick Mahomes has to choose from. Pacheco will be heavily involved from start to finish and has the second-best odds to score.
The 49ers have allowed so much rushing production in the playoffs thus far. They gave up three rushing touchdowns in the NFC Championship game to the Lions. One score from each of their elite running back duo in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs and the other on an end around for 42-yards from Jameson Williams. The 49ers gave up 182 total rushing yards in that contest, which bodes very well for Pacheco.
Each of Pacheco’s three playoff touchdowns have come from within five yards. He is not only their every down back, but also their goal line back given how hard Pacheco hits the hole. Pacheco will get plenty of opportunities to hit paydirt against a 49ers run defense that has been weak recently.
Travis Kelce – Anytime TD Scorer
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Odds: 1.91
After posting a sub 1,000-yard receiving season for the first time in his last eight years, Travis Kelce has found a fountain of youth during the Chiefs’ playoff run. The 34-year-old not only found love, but he also finally found the end zone again. Before the AFC Divisional Round against the Bills, Kelce had not scored a touchdown since November 20th. He has since scored three times in his last two playoff games.
Kelce is right behind his team-mate Isiah Pacheco in the anytime touchdown scoring odds. He is Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 target. Kelce has caught 23 of his 27 targets in the playoffs and is coming off a perfect 11 receptions on 11 targets for 116 yards in the AFC Championship. He will be peppered the entire game.
The 49ers allowed Sam LaPorta to catch nine receptions for 97 yards in the NFC Championship and have allowed several other big games to opposing tight ends. Kelce will be heavily targeted once the Chiefs get into the red zone. Head Coach Andy Reid is one of the best offensive minds in the game and always seems to find a way to get Kelce free in the end zone.
Deebo Samuel – Anytime TD Scorer
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Odds: 2.40
Deebo Samuel only played nine snaps in the NFC Divisional Round, but made up for that missed time with a great game in the Conference Championship. Samuel caught eight of his nine targets for 89 yards and even had three carries. Outside of Christian McCaffrey, Samuel is next in line for the most touches on the 49ers. Samuel leads the team with a 22.8% target share and is second with 12 total touchdowns.
Not only is Samuel an obvious threat in the passing attack, but he is basically the 49ers’ backup running back. He has scored a career-high seven times through the air and five times on the ground this season. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan draws up several plays simply to give Samuel the ball in space where he has shown the ability to take a screen play to the house. Samuel with the ball is always a threat to score.
Whether it is through the air or on the ground, Samuel will find his way into the end zone. He was a touchdown machine late in the season. In his last six games, Samuel scored eight total touchdowns. His odds are value to score in the Super Bowl.
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