Even when he doesn't score, Vinícius Júnior's direct attacking style often draws fouls. The forward hasn’t found the net in his last five matches for Real Madrid, but he was fouled at least twice in three of them.

In the win over Pachuca, Vini didn’t even register a shot on target but was fouled five times. His dribbling, pace, and movement in the final third regularly force defenders into fouling him to stop dangerous plays. He finished La Liga averaging over 2.3 fouls drawn per game, and 1.8 in the Champions League.

Against RB Salzburg, he’ll face tough markers. Midfielders Soumaïla Diabaté and Nene Dorgeles — both with four fouls each in the tournament — are likely to challenge the Brazilian. They operate in midfield and on Salzburg’s right defensive side, which overlaps with Vini’s preferred attacking zone.

Given the value on offer for just one shot on target, backing Jude Bellingham looks appealing. The Englishman scored the opening goal in Real Madrid’s 3–1 win over Pachuca and remains a solid pick to play a leading role against the Austrians.

Bellingham has enjoyed a strong season wearing the No. 5 shirt for Madrid, racking up 28 goal contributions in 54 appearances. He’s been especially effective when making late runs into the box, scoring twice in his last five games from close range. In this tournament, he’s registered one shot on target across two matches.

He averaged close to one shot on target per game in both La Liga (0.7) and the Champions League (0.5), despite not playing as the most advanced attacker. With Mbappé likely sidelined and Vini struggling to deliver end product, Bellingham looks a smart pick to test the goalkeeper at least once.

Real Madrid overcame an early setback — playing with 10 men from the 7th minute — to secure an important 3–1 win over Pachuca. With top spot in the group on the line, the Spanish side are expected to stay focused and efficient to seal first place.

Even with Kylian Mbappé listed as doubtful, Xabi Alonso has been getting strong performances from other key players, including Arda Güler, Fede Valverde, and Gonzalo Garcia — all of whom were directly involved in the goals against Pachuca.

At just 21, Garcia is likely to keep his place in the starting XI after a solid showing that included an assist. Jude Bellingham, who scored in that match, and Vinícius Júnior, the team’s second-highest scorer this season, are also expected to start and lead the attack.

RB Salzburg, while still unbeaten, have struggled to contain opposition attacks. They're conceding an average of 18 shots per game — the sixth-worst mark among teams with two matches played in the tournament.

Across the season, the Austrian side have allowed 71 goals in 50 matches — an average of 1.42 per game. More concerning, nine of their last 13 defeats have come by more than one goal. They even faced Madrid earlier in the Champions League and were beaten 5–1, with Bellingham providing two assists and Vini scoring twice.

It’s no secret that Real Madrid are expected to dominate and control the tempo of the match. The team showed its resilience by building a 3–0 lead over Pachuca despite being reduced to 10 men early on. As mentioned, Salzburg tend to allow passing sequences in dangerous areas that often lead to shots.

Madrid have several players — including Garcia, Valverde, and Güler — all averaging over two shots per game in this tournament, and all eager to impress Xabi Alonso. That attacking intent sets the stage for sustained pressure, a high number of attempts, and likely a strong corner count.

While Real Madrid are currently averaging just 3.5 corners per game in the tournament, that figure is skewed by the early red card against Pachuca. In other competitions, they've consistently averaged over 5.5 corners — including 6.4 in La Liga and 6.6 in the Champions League.

RB Salzburg conceded 11 corners to Al-Hilal and 7 to Pachuca. Given that Madrid are the strongest side in the group, it’s reasonable to expect Salzburg to concede more than 5.5 corners in this match.