America de Cali v Cortulua
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Sunday 24th July – 8:45PM KO
Three games into the season and America de Cali haven’t really got going yet, partly this can be put down to scheduling but there is also very little happening at the Pascual Guerrero.
With the women’s Copa America held in Bucaramanga and Cali, their home tie against Pereira and then their trip to Atletico Bucaramanga were both postponed. They opened their game with a very flat 0-0 draw to Envigado. The visitors, who have lost their two subsequent games, controlled possession and were unlucky to not win.
America is one of the biggest clubs in the country with millions of fans but there is very little enthusiasm for the project in 2022. According to numbers released a week ago, they have sold 564 season tickets for their 46,000 capacity stadium. This number is in stark contrast to the 22,000 sold by their rivals Atletico Nacional for their similarly sized stadium in Medellin.
No new signings have come in so far over the mid-season break. There is talk that former Fulham striker Hugo Rodallega’s arrival is imminent but this is yet to be formalized. The same applies to Uruguayan playmaker Brahian Alemán who could bring some much needed creativity to a very one dimensional side.
Experienced Spanish winger Iago Falque was brought in to much fanfare but the former Roma, Genoa and Torino man has only made 5 appearances and has had yet another injury setback this week.
America almost always plays a 4-3-3 with attacking fullbacks, direct inverted wingers and three conservative midfielders. Former Dortmund and Granada striker Adrian Ramos is the clear star of the team with the 36 year old still a threat in the Colombian league.
Cortulua have been competitive but have just fallen narrowly short in their opening three games. They drew to a heavily rotated Nacional side on the opening day and were then beaten 1-0 by both Santa Fe and Jaguares. In all three of their games they had more shots than their opponents. In their last two games they conceded early, had most of the possession, created good chances but failed to make them count.
Luis Ruiz left for Millonarios on a free transfer and replacing him has been the biggest headache for the club’s sporting director. Ruiz scored 11 goals in 18 in the apertura and has continued his good form with 2 in 3 for his new side. Cortulua will depend on the clinical but limited Mercado or the more complete but unproven Johar Mejia.
Mejia was a big youth star in Argentina with Racing but this will be his first team top flight season, having moved from Bogota FC in the second tier.
Cortulua will play a 4-2-3-1 with Colorado and Caicedo sitting behind an attacking trio which will include exciting U20 international Castillo-Manyoma.
Based 40 minutes outside of Cali in Tulua, the visitors will be well prepared for the heat of Colombia’s salsa capital. They will be highly motivated and well prepared following some decent performances against bigger, more established clubs so far this season.
I think the Cortulua could snatch a surprise win against their giant rivals to the south. America is a mess, fans have no confidence in the project and I think this result could represent a new low.
I am predicting a Cortulua win and then a redoubling of efforts to finalize Rodallega and kickstart the rebuild of one of Colombia’s giants.
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Prediction: Cortulua Double Chance, Evens on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Independiente Medellín v Once Caldas
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Sunday 24th July – 10:50PM KO
Independiente Medellin, or DIM as they are often known, is seen as the people’s club in the country’s second city. While they are not consistent title contenders they always have the potential to make a title charge.
Despite mixed results in recent years they have sold over 20,000 season tickets for games at the Atanasio Giradot, a ground they share with rivals Nacional. While their budgets are often more limited than the likes of Junior, Nacional and Millonarios, they have made some popular additions to an already solid squad.
Firstly, fan favorite former goalkeeper David Gonzalez has been brought in as manager. The stopper, who had an interesting career that included Manchester City, Aberdeen and Brighton, played over 200 times for DIM and will be given time and support.
His first signing was to bring back fan favorite Christian Marrugo to the club for his third spell. The hard-working attacking midfielder scored 18 and created 15 previously for DIM and will add experience and invention in the final third.
Medellin has started the season fairly well. They drew away against apertura finalists Tolima, narrowly beat Patriotas scoring from the spot and then drew away to a talented but inconsistent Cali 2-2 with a 95th minute equalizer.
DIM plays a narrow 4-2-3-1 with Marrugo, Vladimir Hernandez and Pineda interchanging in front of the tidy, technically sound midfield pairing of Ricaurte and Arregui. This side has the potential of making a title challenge this year but Pons will have to improve his attacking output up top.
Once Caldas have invested big in the side for the clausura bringing in significant additions to the squad. They began the season with two draws but a good 2-0 home win against Aguilas has them back on track and towards the top of the table.
They have very good squad depth now with multiple good options in each position but perhaps still lack the big stars. Tricky winger Nelson Quiñónes (19) has been strongly linked with an MLS but isn’t a guaranteed starter for Once Caldas while Dannovi Quiñónes (22) is a very good ball winner. I think this could be an even yet fairly open game which I believe DIM will take at home. Both sides have the potential to make the playoffs and challenge for the league but I think the more settled Medellin side will have the advantage over an Once Caldas that is still evolving
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Prediction: Independiente Medellin to Score Over 1.5 Goals, 2.25 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Deportivo Pereira v Deportivo Cali
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Monday 25th July – 10:40PM KO
Deportivo Pereira have been doing fairly well despite their limited squad while Cali have been consistently poor despite a good amount of quality. This has at least been the story in the league, they inexplicably became the sum of their parts in the Libertadores beating Boca Juniors and drawing to Corinthians.
The side finished in 19th in the apertura and while there are signs of progress, they only have 1 point after 3 rounds of games. Their opener against Jaguares was postponed because of the Copa America, they then lost to a strong Tolima and drew to a decent DIM side away.
Experienced forward Teofilo Gutierrez is the big name star of this Cali side and he helped them win the league title in 2021 but has brought as many headaches as heroics since. The 37 year old former Colombia international is still more than capable of winning a game but can also divide the dressing room with his strong personality. He is also very prone to a silly red card and will miss the game against Pereira through suspension.
Cali plays a 4-2-3-1 with lots of pace out wide and experienced, smart target-man Angelo Rodriguez as the focal point in attack. Dangerous on the ball but prone a defensive lapse and a collapse when faced by adversity.
Pereira have a far lower ceiling with the squad they have but have not seen the same dramatic fluctuations in performance. Their away tie to America was postponed because of the Copa America but they bounced back from an opening defeat at home to Alianza Petrolera with a good 2-0 win against Patriotas.
Pereira plays a 3-5-2 with three defensive midfielders sitting in front of three experienced defenders. The attacking thrust comes from the energetic wingbacks providing the dynamic forward pair of established, seasoned Leonardo Castro and interesting, talented Brayan Leon.
After leaving themselves too open in the apertura, their new system should give them a strong foundation but will rely on good service from the wing-backs and sharp interchanges with the front two.
I can see both teams scoring in this one with the attacking qualities of both sides likely to come to the fore.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.83 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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