Club Brugge v Genk

The first Pro League tie on Sunday already looked fairly crucial for the title race, but with Union St-Gilloise failing to beat strugglers Oostende on Friday night, Club Brugge simply must win this game, as they will close the gap to 5 points, which, come the play-offs will become a 3-point lead, with Brugge having 6 games to overhaul it. Genk will not roll over, and have play-off worries of their own with Cercle Brugge just 2 points behind and Sint-Truiden 3 points behind them. 

Unfortunately for the visitors, Club Brugge are finally demonstrating the kind of form that made them champions last season, and impressed many across Europe in the Champions League group stages. They have won five on the bounce, scoring three goals or more in all of their previous four games, finding the net 17 times in 5 Pro League games. This run includes a 4-1 thrashing of fourth-placed Antwerp, and has seen a consistent run of strong performances.

Brugge tend to score around 2 goals per game at home, averaging 2.07 per 90, and failing to score just once, a tense 0-0 draw with league leaders Union. Despite the disappointment of a semi-final defeat in the Belgian Cup, Brugge have been able to put that behind them and move forward impressively, and have their sights firmly set on a fourth title in five seasons.

Genk by contrast are struggling somewhat, now finding themselves on a run of four away games without a win, taking just 1 point from an available 12. They have failed to score twice in their last five Pro League games, and went down 1-0 to Sint-Truiden last week in a game that could well be the reason they miss out on the chance to play for European football this season.

Previous matches between these two have averaged 3.48 goals per game, but with Genk conceding 1.73 goals per game on the road, they are likely to struggle against Brugge, not least in this kind of form. The away side have conceded two goals in each of their last four away fixtures, and have been comfortably beaten by both of Brugge’s fellow top-3 sides in this run, Union and Anderlecht.

With Genk keeping just one clean sheet on the road all season, it would be a huge shock if they were able to keep their second here at the Jan Breydel Stadion. Brugge look unstoppable at the minute, and with Union dropping off somewhat, every point they can claw back is likely to be absolutely crucial, as is maintaining momentum heading into the play-offs. The home side have kept clean sheets in 6 of their 15 games, and could well do the same here.

Regardless of whether they can prevent Genk scoring, they will surely still win this game, and odds of over 1.6 for Brugge to win in almost any fixture is difficult to pass up when they are playing as well as they are right now. This will not be the easiest game, but they should emerge with the three points.

Kortrijk v Standard Liege

For the second Pro League game on Sunday we go from a match with huge stakes for both teams to a match where neither side really has anything to play for. Kortrijk can technically still sneak into the play-offs, but an 8-point gap with 9 available and three positions to make up doesn’t seem especially likely. One thing that does seem likely however is an absence of goals in this game at the Guldensporen Stadion.

Both sides have seen under 2.5 goals land in just over half of their games this season, and are the bottom-2 in the over 2.5 goals table, with three or more goals landing in 12 and 13 of their 31 Pro League matches respectively. Both sides are on poor runs and are clearly lacking confidence, with Kortrijk having lost 7 of 8 to see a promising season collapse as it reaches the final stages, whilst Liege have won just 1 of their last 8 league games.

Under 2.5 goals would have landed if placed in all of Liege’s previous 7 games. Les Rouches have scored just 3 goals in these 7 games, and all of their previous 5 have seen either 1 or 0 goals shared by both sides, a huge aberration in a league well-known for its high scoring games.

The hosts Kortrijk have also struggled for goals, scoring once or fewer in 8 of their last 10 games. They may have had one freak result in this run, putting five past Zulte-Waregem, but they do have the second-worst defence in the division and are incredibly inconsistent, so I wouldn’t read too much into this, especially as they scored 5 goals from less than 2xG.

The xG of both sides confirms that these low-scoring games are no accident, with Kortrijk producing 1.29xG per home game, and Liege managing 1.18xG per game on the road. Clearly, one goal or less per game is to be expected, and so it has proved, with Kortrijk scoring twice or more in 6 of 15 home games, and Liege in just 4 of 15 away ties.

Despite clearly struggling for form, neither side is particularly inclined to throw goals away, with both sides conceding one goal or fewer in over half of their respective home and away games this season (8 of 15 for both).  

All this should combine for a fairly quiet affair. The one unknown is perhaps how having nothing to play for will change their approaches, but Liege have known for some time that they would stay up but not make the play-offs, and Kortrijk have been sliding out of contention for some time. Neither side has let their circumstances change how they have played recently, so I would expect their low-scoring runs to continue.

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Gent v Anderlecht

After a slight lull in the mid-afternoon game, we are right back to another crucially important game, with third-placed Anderlecht up against fifth-placed Gent. Both sides are in superb form at the moment, but there are caveats, especially with Gent who have won 6 games in a row. This seems extremely impressive, but their last 5 games have come against 5 of the 6 sides that make up the bottom-6 in the division, and all of these are games they would be expected to win. 

They will also be suffering the effects of competing in the Europa Conference League on Thursday, where a near full strength side were knocked out 3-1 on aggregate by last years’ Greek Super League runners up, PAOK Thessaloniki. 

Their European adventure has so far had little impact on the side from Ghent, who have often found themselves playing teams down the bottom before and after their midweek ties. This week, facing a 1-0 deficit from the away leg in Greece, they were forced to play most of their regular starting XI, and those same players will doubtless be asked to play 90 minutes again today, whilst getting over the disappointment of elimination from continental competition.

Anderlecht meanwhile have had a week to rest, and have been in similarly great form, unbeaten in 6 games now, and scoring 13 goals in the process. Again these games have not been the hardest by any stretch of the imagination, but Vincent Kompany’s side will know that a win here will all but confirm their play-off spot, and will keep them within range of the top-2, giving them a shot at the title.

Anderlecht’s strong form has gone somewhat under the radar, with Belgium’s most successful club now having lost just 2 of their previous 17 Pro League games. Were it not for a slow start to the season where they won just 5 of 12, they would be right in the title fight, and no side will be looking forward to a visit from the Paars-wit. 

Anderlecht have played 6 games against sides in the second play-off group, winning 4, drawing once and losing just one. Gent meanwhile have won just 2 of their 7 games against the top-4, both of those coming against Club Brugge. They have consistently beaten the teams below them, but struggled to make the step up when required to do so against those above them in the table. 

A low-scoring affair is eminently possible, with Gent seeing under 2.5 goals in 16 of their 31 Pro League fixtures this season. A draw would be an acceptable result for both sides, but Anderlecht will feel they can get something from this one, especially considering Gent’s exertions midweek. A price this high for either a win or a draw for one of the most in-form sides in the league cannot be ignored, especially when the circumstances more generally favour them so much.

Sint Truiden v Beerschot

The final game of the Pro League weekend sees already relegated Beerschot making the trip east to Sint-Truiden. The hosts have a very winnable looking final three fixtures, and are just three points off the top-8, and the chance to play against those same sides for a place in Europe next season. Their late season push has come out of nowhere, but they are now unbeaten in 6 Pro League games, winning 4 and drawing the rest, including a 1-0 win against league leaders Union, and beating the current occupants of eighth-place Genk last week.

With all three remaining fixtures against sides in the bottom-6, and the sides above having much tougher run-ins, they will want to take all 9 available points if at all possible, and a visit from relegated Beerschot could not really be any more of a gift. The away side have not won a single away game all season long, taking just 3 points from an available 45. 

The hosts have dispatched the other sides propping up the table at home quite comfortably, beating Eupen 2-0, and Seraing 3-1. They have not always been able to take points off the worst sides in the division, but the confidence and focus amongst the squad is clear to see. Sint-Truiden have scored in 7 of their 9 games against the bottom-6, whilst their opponents have failed to score away at bottom-half opposition in 5 of their 8 visits. 

With their main rivals for this final play-off spot about to face probably the best team in the division on current form, this is Sint-Truiden’s chance. Their goal difference is significantly worse, so they have to not just catch Genk, but also to overhaul them. This will be no easy task, but 3 points here, and a Genk loss will move them level and really put the pressure on. As if the chance to play for a place in Europe wouldn’t already be motivation enough, doing so at the expense of their biggest rivals Genk would be extra sweet for players and fans alike.

Beerschot have now lost eight consecutive away games in the Pro League, scoring just 5 goals in this time, and conceding 17. They have played 17 games against the current top-10, winning once, drawing once and losing the other 15. They have been comfortably the worst side in the division, and their fall from grace after just missing out on the play-offs last season has been spectacular.

They had been putting up something of a fight since the winter break, but losing 3-2 after leading Charleroi 2-1 at the end of last month is where the wheels really fell off. Not getting anything from that game felt like the end of the road for De Ratten, and so it has proved. Having nothing to play for has not seen anything change, and Sint-Truiden simply must win this game.

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