Brentford v West Ham
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Sunday 10th April – 2:00PM KO
Brentford will be looking to follow up their stunning 4-1 Premier League victory over Chelsea last weekend with another London derby victory as they entertain a West Ham side with one eye on Thursday’s European tie with Lyon.
The Bees returned from the international break in wonderful fashion and were good value for their victory on Saturday with Christian Eriksen one of the stars again. Vitaly Janelt scored either side of the Dane in an electric 10 minute period which saw them inflict just a second home loss for Chelsea all season. Sitting in 15th, the Bees are almost safe and can afford to play an entertaining brand of football as shown by their 10 goals scored in their last 4 games. Thomas Frank’s 3-5-2 at Chelsea freed up centre midfielders Janelt and Eriksen, providing extra defensive cover in the form of a back 3 and holding midfielder, allowing for more options on the counter against the quality of Chelsea.
They face another quality side in West Ham today, who snatched a draw against Lyon despite being down to 10 men after the sending off of Aaron Creswell. Conceding 24 shots and allowing Lyon 68% possession will have tired out this West Ham side scheduled to play just 3 days later and trying to end a poor run of away form. The Hammers haven’t kept an away clean sheet in 11 games, despite notching up a few wins on the way showing they play without fear on their travels. Without many injuries Moyes will be able to rotate his pool of talent going forward and showcase quality in depth with so many fixtures in a short time.
West Ham have struggled on the road against big teams, still notching up 6 wins mainly against bottom half teams. With a chance at UCL football on the horizon, they won’t be settling for a point today, taking the game to a Brentford side prone to conceding goals recently. The reverse fixture finished 2-1 to Brentford and with BTTS landing in 65% of West Ham games (the highest rate in the league) that’s my tip today.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.80 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Leicester v Crystal Palace
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Sunday 10th April – 2:00PM KO
A 0-0 draw with PSV on Thursday highlighted Leicester’s issues as they failed to break down a side who concede well over a goal a game in the Eredevisie, a much lower standard league. On the other hand, Palace come into this game off a clinical 3-0 victory over fellow London side Arsenal and flying under Patrick Vieira.
For the first time in six games, Leicester outscored their opponents xG in the PSV game, showing they have been outperformed despite going unbeaten in 7 home games. Rodgers confirmed in his Friday press conference that Jamie Vardy wouldn’t be fit for Sunday’s game meaning yet another week without the English talisman who adds the x-factor to this Leicester attack. Deputising in his place, Kelechi Iheanacho has scored one goal since boxing day which isn’t the greatest record for the side with the worst defensive record in the top 10.
Coming to town on Sunday are a buoyant Crystal Palace side on a run of 7 unbeaten, including playing leaders City, putting on a show on the road recently. To start the season Palace won just 1 of 12 road games before victories at Wolves and Watford showed significant defensive improvement, including an xG of 3.03 to 0.8 away at Wolves. They haven’t won many on the road but have been difficult to beat, losing just once to sides outside the top 7 all year.
Olise and Zaha should be fit to play on Saturday but more significantly there are no defensive setbacks for Vieira’s men who haven’t conceded more than one in a game since January. Against an extremely inconsistent defence I expect them to score at least once with their depth of attacking talent to land Palace double chance as my tip.
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Prediction: Crystal Palace Double Chance, 1.50 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Norwich v Burnley
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Sunday 10th April – 2:00PM KO
A pivotal battle at the foot of the table rounds off the 2PM kick offs as Norwich host Burnley as Burnley look to move out the bottom 3 and a step closer to safety. With just 4 wins in 30 games this season, it appears Norwich are awaiting their inevitable relegation, but victory today could put them just 4 points away from safety.
Norwich have both defensive woes and struggles going forward, culminating in 18 points and the worst goal difference in the league. A point at Brighton last week glossed over Norwich’s failure to have a shot on target while shipping an xG of 3.64 to an out of form Brighton side. The Canaries haven’t won since January, and with only Teemu Pukki scoring in more than one game this season, I can’t see a change of fortunes today.
This afternoon they welcome a Burnley side with under 1 xG per game away and 8.79 shots per game, tallies which only Norwich rank lower in. Burnley rank lowest in touches in penalty area per 90, almost 1/3 of the amount leaders City have. There is cause for optimism in the final third after a 3-2 win over Everton, however with just 4 shots on target it was uncharacteristic and a result of defensive errors.
This game will be a tense affair, neither side allowing a rival to win this six pointer. Defensively, Norwich could welcome back full back pairing Aarons and Williams which gives me more hope in their back lines resilience than recent weeks. The reverse fixture finished 0-0 and I wouldn’t bet against a similar result today.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.60 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Man City v Liverpool
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Sunday 10th April – 4:30PM KO
With the gap between the sides just a point, this game could very well decide the destination of the Premier League trophy in May as the Etihad hosts the biggest fixture of the season.
Significant Champions League wins for both sides leave Sunday’s fixture as the most important in the next week and we can expect full strength sides apiece on Sunday. The big team news out of Man City is the continued absence of lead center half Ruben Dias who has been a revelation since his signing, similar to Virgil van Dijk’s role for the opposition. Meanwhile, Trent’s return from a hamstring injury should see him start again at the Etihad providing plenty of opportunities going forward, similar to the world-class pass played for Mane’s goal in midweek.
The threat going forward for both full backs will be an essential avenue for Liverpool to trouble City who like to utilise an inverted wing back such as Cancelo on the left to dominate the midfield with possession and create an overload. Playing to their strengths is the only way to break down a side like City and counter-acting them by playing the game in the wide areas is Liverpool’s best chance of 3 points with the pace of Salah, Mane, Jota and Diaz.
Meanwhile for City, they will look to reintroduce Phil Foden into the starting XI after he changed the game at Atletico and has a superb track record against Liverpool, capitalising on the small space with his agility and control. City are unbeaten in 4 against Liverpool, including the 2-2 draw at Anfield in October, which Foden scored in.
The absence of Dias cannot be understated, and I can’t see City withstanding 90 minutes with Liverpool’s quality. Liverpool have to win as they trail by a point with little left in the season and I expect them to take the game to City, scoring first. De Bruyne, Mahrez, Foden and Sterling should be electric with a roaring Etihad behind them and I’m expecting plenty of goals in this game to add to City’s 40 home goals in 14 games and Liverpool’s 38 away goals in 15 games.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals 1.73 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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