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Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Bet Builder Tips & Player Prop Bets

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Bet Builder Tips & Player Prop Bets

Friday 17 January, 20251 min read
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Stuart Durst

Stuart Durst is a professional gambler that has publicity released free plays over the last 3 years, publishing thousands of in-depth articles in the process. With a direct focus on the ever-expanding player prop market, he blends film study and data analytics to constantly find edges across multiple major sports. When he’s not betting sports, he’s likely either live on his podcast Pass The Prop or walking his dog Reno.

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Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

The NFL Divisional Round is upon us and we’ve got two expertly crafted Bet Builders for Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs, with Level 1 coming in at 4/1 and Level 2 priced at 9/1.

4/1 Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Bet Builder Level 1

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9/1 Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Bet Builder Level 2

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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip

🏈 Travis Kelce, Anytime Touchdown

📈 Odds: 2.40

I honestly can’t believe we are getting such a good number on Travis Kelce in the play-offs. Sure he didn’t look quite like himself during the regular season, but he still posted a respectable 97 receptions for 823 yards. He finds himself in a good matchup against the Texans, who have a really strong outside corner duo. This should limit the Chiefs receivers, but create more opportunities over the middle for Kelce to capitalise on. This has also been a good red zone matchup for tight ends all year long, with the Texans allowing the 5th most receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Nobody is more consistent in the playoffs than Kelce, who has 19 TDs in his last 19 post-season outings. He gets better as the play-offs go on, with 9 of those scores coming in 8 Divisional Round outings. This is the time of year when the best players come alive, and I have a lot of confidence in Andy Reid to find his favourite target in the end zone.

🏈 Isiah Pacheco, 50+ Rushing Yards

📈 Odds: 2.30

Isiah Pacheco has been a major part of the team's post-season success over the past 2 years, and I would expect him to be again this season. While Kareem Hunt was extremely involved in the regular season, he wasn't efficient, and I don't think he sees much usage. Pacheco hasn't been great since returning from injury, but he also has had 2 straight bye weeks to rest and get back to full strength. He’s one of the toughest backs in the league, and considering the fact that the Chiefs are heavy favourites, he could see very heavy usage. Looking at his past postseason game logs he’s had a lot of success: 2024 Super Bowl: 59 rushing yards 2024 AFC Championship: 68 rushing yards 2024 Divisional: 97 rushing yards 2024 Wild Card: 89 rushing yards 2023 Super Bowl: 76 rushing yards 2023 AFC Championship: 26 rushing yards 2023 Divisional: 95 rushing yards He also has a chance to make Chiefs history, becoming the third player with at least 75 scrimmage yards in each of his first 8 playoff games, joining Pro Football Hall of Famers Terrell Davis and Emmitt Smith. If he’s healthy, these alt lines will look absolutely silly on Saturday.

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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip

🏈 Patrick Mahomes, 3+ Passing Touchdowns

📈 Odds: 3.40

Mahomes has 2+ passing touchdowns in 14/18 playoff games, including 8 of his last 10 since 2022. He has one of the highest floors of any quarterback in the league, and I like his chances to score 3 in this one. He’s the best quarterback in football, and despite plenty of unenthusiastic regular season play-calling, the Chiefs turn it up in the play-offs. I don’t really trust their ground game in the red zone considering they are 27th-ranked YPC. Now he gets a brutal Texans defensive line that should have an advantage in the trenches. In the biggest moments, I think they trust Mahomes to do what he does best, even if this is a lower-scoring environment. In terms of red zone play-calling, Andy Reid is one of the most creative play-callers in the league and he has his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. Hollywood is back and looks good, Xavier Worthy is breaking out at exactly the right time, and Travis Kelce should take the training wheels off under the bright lights. Rest is important for a veteran team, and coming off the ankle injury Mahomes should be closer to full strength.

🏈 Travis Kelce, 70+ Receiving Yards

📈 Odds: 3.30

A lot of similar logic with the Mahomes bet, it's the playoffs and it's time for the stars to show up. Travis Kelce has been one of the most dominant tight ends in football over the last decade, but he didn't quite look like the same athlete during the regular season. While it is true he’s probably lost a step, he also wasn't getting the same amount of designed targets drawn up. His snaps weren't as high and they ran a ton of 2 TE sets, in the post-season I think we see him much more involved. A ton of his regular season usage came from Mahomes targeting him out of structure, and while they have one of the best connections in the league, it will be good to see more designed targets drawn up for him. Beyond the increase in usage, I expect Kelce to continue his historic streak. Travis Kelce has 14 consecutive playoff games with at least 5 receptions and 13 consecutive postseason games with at least 70 receiving yards, both the longest such streaks in NFL playoff history. The Texans have good outsider corners but nobody that can line up with Kelce, I expect one of the best of the generation to take advantage.

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Here on Andy's Bet Club, we offer a range Expert Betting Tips from sports all over the world, including NFL Betting Tips.

We've got coverage of all the NFL action this weekend, check out our Rams @ Eagles Bet Builder Tips, Commanders @ Lions Betting Predictions and Ravens @ Bills Player Prop Tips. We've also got a Road To The Super Bowl Predictions article featuring an exclusive 8/1 outright treble.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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