Isiah Pacheco has been a major part of the team’s post-season success over the past 2 years, and I would expect him to be again this season. While Kareem Hunt was extremely involved in the regular season, he wasn’t efficient, and I don’t think he sees much usage.

Pacheco hasn’t been great since returning from injury, but he also has had 2 straight bye weeks to rest and get back to full strength. He’s one of the toughest backs in the league, and considering the fact that the Chiefs are heavy favourites, he could see very heavy usage. Looking at his past postseason game logs he’s had a lot of success:

2024 Super Bowl: 59 rushing yards
2024 AFC Championship: 68 rushing yards
2024 Divisional: 97 rushing yards
2024 Wild Card: 89 rushing yards
2023 Super Bowl: 76 rushing yards
2023 AFC Championship: 26 rushing yards
2023 Divisional: 95 rushing yards

He also has a chance to make Chiefs history, becoming the third player with at least 75 scrimmage yards in each of his first 8 playoff games, joining Pro Football Hall of Famers Terrell Davis and Emmitt Smith. If he’s healthy, these alt lines will look absolutely silly on Saturday.

Mahomes has 2+ passing touchdowns in 14/18 playoff games, including 8 of his last 10 since 2022. He has one of the highest floors of any quarterback in the league, and I like his chances to score 3 in this one. He’s the best quarterback in football, and despite plenty of unenthusiastic regular season play-calling, the Chiefs turn it up in the play-offs.

I don’t really trust their ground game in the red zone considering they are 27th-ranked YPC. Now he gets a brutal Texans defensive line that should have an advantage in the trenches. In the biggest moments, I think they trust Mahomes to do what he does best, even if this is a lower-scoring environment.

In terms of red zone play-calling, Andy Reid is one of the most creative play-callers in the league and he has his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. Hollywood is back and looks good, Xavier Worthy is breaking out at exactly the right time, and Travis Kelce should take the training wheels off under the bright lights. Rest is important for a veteran team, and coming off the ankle injury Mahomes should be closer to full strength.

A lot of similar logic with the Mahomes bet, it’s the playoffs and it’s time for the stars to show up. Travis Kelce has been one of the most dominant tight ends in football over the last decade, but he didn’t quite look like the same athlete during the regular season. While it is true he’s probably lost a step, he also wasn’t getting the same amount of designed targets drawn up.

His snaps weren’t as high and they ran a ton of 2 TE sets, in the post-season I think we see him much more involved. A ton of his regular season usage came from Mahomes targeting him out of structure, and while they have one of the best connections in the league, it will be good to see more designed targets drawn up for him.

Beyond the increase in usage, I expect Kelce to continue his historic streak. Travis Kelce has 14 consecutive playoff games with at least 5 receptions and 13 consecutive postseason games with at least 70 receiving yards, both the longest such streaks in NFL playoff history. The Texans have good outsider corners but nobody that can line up with Kelce, I expect one of the best of the generation to take advantage.