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UEFA Nations League Final: Croatia v Spain
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Competition: UEFA Nations League Final
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Kick off: 19:45
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Watch live: Channel 4
The UEFA Nations League final pits Croatia against Spain on Sunday evening in Rotterdam at the Stadion Feijenoord ‘De Kuip’. For Spain, it is a second Nations League final appearance, the only country to boast such a record since the competition began in 2018, and they will be aiming to go one better than 2021, when they were beaten 2-1 by France at the final hurdle.
They will do so against a Croatian side who stunned the home team, The Netherlands, with two goals in extra-time to win 4-2 on Wednesday. Last time they met, a thrilling 5-3 win for Spain saw them progress in Euro 2020, while their two previous Nations League meetings have produced 11 goals between them.
Spain will be under a different coach, Luis de la Fuente, who is already under pressure, and victory in this final could buy him crucial time ahead of European qualifiers. De la Fuente’s side were shocked by a defeat to Scotland in March, but have bounced back with their 2-1 win over Italy in the semi-finals on Thursday.
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UEFA Nations League Final Cheat Sheet
Spain’s technical style revolves around ball retention, and their midfield and forward lines are filled with players who keep the ball extremely well under pressure, often drawing fouls. Gavi will almost certainly start, and he will likely be up against Marcelo Brozović during the game.
Gavi draws over 3 fouls per game, whilst Brozović commits over 2, so the Croatian will have his work cut out and backing him for fouls, or to pick up a card, looks like a great option for any UEFA Nations League final bet builder.
As for Croatia, Andrej Kramarić was the one to open the scoring for his team in their semi-final, albeit from the penalty spot. He also opened the scoring in their recent Euros qualifier against Wales and has been averaging 2.35 shots per 90 minutes for Croatia since his two-goal performance against Canada at the World Cup.
Form of past Nations League Finals
When it comes to detecting trends for the Nations League final, there are only two previous finals to look at for this still relatively new competition. The first final was in 2019 and host nation Portugal defeated Netherlands 1-0, before France overcame Spain 2-1 in Milan in 2021.
The first final was a very scrappy occasion, and Portugal secured victory in a game in which they had 0.7 xG and Netherlands had 0.26 xG. In the second final, France posted 1.0 xG and Spain 0.7 xG in that game of three goals.
What’s interesting is that, as a whole, the Nations League Final Four does tend to produce goals. Looking at all the Nations League semi-final and final matches held so far, seven out of eight of them have seen both teams score.
The only Nations League semi-final or final to produce a clean sheet so far was that Portugal vs Netherlands final from 2019, a game characterised by the conservative approaches of Fernando Santos and Ronald Koeman.
Overall, Nations League Final Four games, not including the third-placed playoff, have produced 3.35 goals per 90 minutes, with 29 goals having been scored across eight matches, two of which went to extra time, including Croatia’s 4-2 after extra time win over the Netherlands on Wednesday.
It seems the players are approaching the Nations League matches in a more carefree way, willing to take more chances in attack and remaining less disciplined in defence, something we clearly saw in the two midweek semi-finals.
As former Spain coach Luis Enrique famously said after the last edition: “I felt less pressure in the Nations League Final Four, which was like a bonus for the players.” If that’s the approach of the Spain and the Croatia players on Sunday night, we could see many goals.
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⚽ Over 3.5 goals
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Odds: 4.00
Croatia and Spain have met three times in the past five years and each occasion has produced a lot of goals. There was a 6-0 Spain win in the Nations League groups in 2018, before Croatia secured revenge with a 3-2 home win later that same year.
Then, they met in the Euro 2020 last 16, a match that finished 3-3 before Spain won it 5-3 in extra time. That all works out at 5.70 goals per 90 minutes from these recent Croatia vs Spain matches.
Given the stat mentioned above of Nations League Final Four matches tending to produce 3.35 goals per 90 minutes, we could be in for a fun one on Sunday night.
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⚽ Both teams to score
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Odds: 1.85
If there are to be over 3.5 goals, we should also expect both teams to get on the scoresheet, as was the case in the past two Croatia vs Spain matches and as was the case in both of these sides’ semi-final fixtures in midweek.
Seven of eight Nations League Final Four semi-final or final matches so far have proved successful for BTTS bets, and this could be yet another one.
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🛑 Domagoj Vida to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 2.38
For all the talk about Luka Modrić finally lifting a trophy with his national team, Domagoj Vida is another who has reached 100 Croatian caps and who will be giving every drop of blood, sweat and tears to secure the prize on Sunday night.
In the semi-final, for example, his eagerness saw him commit three fouls against the Netherlands. And, in his previous meeting with Spain, the 5-3 Euro 2020 duel, he committed four fouls against the Spanish XI.
Since the start of 2021, he is averaging 1.54 fouls per 90 minutes with Croatia in competitive matches, so Vida is definitely one the referee will have to watch and one to include in a Croatia vs Spain bet builder.
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🎯 Gavi to have 2+ shots on target
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Odds: 6.00
Even though he was named in the Spain squad as a midfielder, Gavi was the Spaniard with the furthest-forward average position in the semi-final against Italy, playing even closer to the opposition goal than Álvaro Morata.
The teenager was very active, as he always is, and could be a key weapon for Spain in the final. In his previous final, the Spanish Super Cup against Real Madrid in January, Gavi produced one of his best ever performances, scoring once and assisting twice.
If he grasps this opportunity too and gets off two shots on target, this big odds Croatia vs Spain bet builder could come in.
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✅ Spain to win
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Odds: 2.00
Spain have been inconsistent in three matches under Luis de la Fuente, but their impressive display against Italy in the semi-final showed that they are better suited to taking on higher quality teams who will not be sitting deep.
Croatia will provide a physical test, but Spain’s aggression will be up to the challenge and could find gaps with their pace in attack against a slow Croatian defence.
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🎯 Joselu to have 2+ shots on target
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Odds: 2.38
Joselu is yet to ever start a Spain match, which may explain why these odds are so long, but he is expected to be picked by Luis de la Fuente for this game after scoring three goals in 81 minutes off the bench across his first three international appearances.
As an impact player off the bench, he recorded two shots on target against both Norway and Scotland, with only one against Italy, but he was thrown on after 84 minutes.
With his fine record likely to see him either start or at least be given a substantial spell of time off the bench, Joselu will be the focal point of Spain’s attack and likely see him lead the way in shots.
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🛑 Gavi to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 1.33
Combative midfielder Gavi has averaged a high 2.42 fouls per 90 this season, but that number gets even higher when playing for Spain, jumping to 3.27.
In fact, Gavi has committed five fouls in a single game as often as he has not committed a single foul in a match for Spain.
Four fouls against Italy meant that his average over the last 12 games for club and country sits at 1.95, and he’s almost certain to keep German referee Felix Zwayer busy.
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