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When betting on any market, it’s important to understand exactly how the bet is settled.
The Euro 2024 Top Goalscorer market is settled according to Golden Boot rules. The player you predict must score the most goals in the tournament. If there is a tie, the winner will be determined by the number of assists.
You can place an each-way bet on this market, with the number of places varying by bookmaker. However, the places are also settled according to the Golden Boot rules:
- Who scored the most goals.
- If tied, who had the most assists.
- If still tied, who had the best goals per minute ratio.
Euro 2020
Cristiano Ronaldo and Patrik Schick tied with five goals each, but Ronaldo won the Golden Boot because he had more assists (1-0).
Four players tied with four goals each: Romelu Lukaku, Harry Kane, Karim Benzema, and Emil Forsberg.
Out of the six top scorers listed, four were among the top 10 pre-tournament favorites. Emil Forsberg had odds of 80/1.
🇵🇹 Cristiano Ronaldo (5 goals + 1 assist)
Ronaldo was one of the favorites for the Golden Boot with pre-tournament odds of 9/1.
Portugal were knocked out in the Round of 16 by Belgium (1-0), meaning all of Ronaldo’s goals were scored in the group stage.
Portugal scored seven goals in total, with Ronaldo scoring five and contributing an assist, making him involved in six out of seven goals.
Three of his goals were penalties, highlighting the importance of penalty-takers in the Top Goalscorer market.
🇨🇿 Patrik Schick (5 goals)
Schick was a significant outsider with pre-tournament odds of 80/1.
The Czech Republic were knocked out by Denmark in the quarter-finals, scoring a total of six goals, five of which were scored by Schick.
Three of his goals came in the group stage, and one was a penalty.
Schick played 400 minutes, averaging 80 minutes per match.
📋 The Others
Belgium reached the quarter-finals and scored nine goals, with Lukaku scoring four. He started all five matches and played the full 90 minutes in four of them. One of his goals was a penalty.
England were runners-up, playing seven matches and scoring 11 goals. Harry Kane started every match, played the full 90 minutes in four of them, and scored four goals.
France were knocked out in the Round of 16 and scored seven goals. Benzema started all four matches, averaged 86 minutes per match, and scored four goals, one of which was a penalty.
Sweden were knocked out in the Round of 16 and scored only five goals, with Forsberg scoring four of them, including one penalty. He started all four matches, playing the full 90 minutes in just one of them (including full extra-time).
Euro 2016
Antoine Griezmann won the Golden Boot in 2016 by scoring six goals.
Six players tied with three goals each: Olivier Giroud, Dimitri Payet, Nani, Cristiano Ronaldo, Alvaro Morata, and Gareth Bale.
Three of the top seven scorers were French, and two were Portuguese, with both nations reaching the final.
Out of these seven, only four were in the top 10 pre-tournament favorites. Nani and Bale had odds of 50/1, and Payet was at 66/1.
🇫🇷 Antoine Griezmann (6 goals + 2 assists)
France reached the final, playing seven matches and scoring 13 goals.
Griezmann appeared in all seven matches, starting six, and averaged 79 minutes per match, including playing the full 120 minutes in the final.
Only one of his goals came in the group stage, and one was a penalty.
He was 14/1 pre-tournament to be the top goalscorer.
📋 The Others
With France reaching the final and scoring 13 goals, Payet and Giroud each scored three. Payet, playing in midfield, started six of the seven matches and averaged 72 minutes per match. Giroud started six of the seven matches, averaging 65 minutes per match.
Portugal also reached the final, scoring nine goals, with Ronaldo and Nani each scoring three. Nani, playing in midfield, started and played nearly the full 90 minutes in every match. Ronaldo was similar, except he played only 24 minutes in the final due to injury.
Spain were knocked out in the Round of 16, scoring only five goals in the tournament, with Morata scoring three. Morata started every match, averaging 72 minutes per game.
Wales was knocked out in the semi-finals, scoring 10 goals in total, with Bale scoring three. All of Bale’s goals came in the group stages. He started all six matches, playing 90 minutes in five of them.
Euro 2012
Fernando Torres won the Golden Boot in 2012, scoring three goals, tying with five other players:
Mario Mandzukic, Mario Gomez, Mario Balotelli, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Alan Dzagoev.
Out of these six, four were in the top 10 pre-tournament favorites. Both Mandzukic and Dzagoev had odds of 33/1.
Torres and Gomez both had one assist, but Torres won the award because he played fewer minutes, giving him a better goals-to-minutes ratio.
🇪🇸 Fernando Torres (3 goals + 1 assist)
Spain won the tournament in 2012, scoring 12 goals in six matches.
Torres played in five of those matches and started two.
Remarkably, he won the Golden Boot while averaging only 38 minutes per match.
He was 16/1 pre-tournament to win the Golden Boot.
🇩🇪 Mario Gomez (3 goals + 1 assist)
Gomez also scored three goals and had one assist, making him very close to winning the award.
Germany scored 10 goals in the tournament and were knocked out in the semi-finals.
Gomez appeared in all five matches, starting four, and averaged 56 minutes per match.
All three of his goals were scored in the group stage, and he was the second favorite to be the top goalscorer with odds of 9/1.
📋 The Others
Croatia were knocked out in the group stage, scoring four goals in total. Mandzukic scored three of these goals, starting all three matches and averaging 90 minutes per game.
Italy were the tournament runner-up but only scored six goals. Balotelli scored three of these goals in six appearances, starting in five matches.
Portugal were knocked out in the semi-finals, scoring six goals overall. Ronaldo scored three of these goals, playing the full 90 minutes in each of the matches.
Russia were knocked out in the group stage, scoring five goals in total. Dzagoev scored three of these goals, starting all three matches and averaging 84 minutes per game.
Summary & Predictions
In Euro 2000, the top goalscorer scored five goals. In 2004, it was also five goals. In 2008, the top goalscorer had four goals, and in 2012, it was three goals.
Since Euro 2016, the format has changed to include 24 teams instead of 16, resulting in more matches being played.
In Euro 2016, the top goalscorer had six goals, and in 2020, it was five goals.
We can therefore predict that in Euro 2024, the top goalscorer will score five or six goals.
Because of this, it’s likely that you will need to back a player from a nation that will reach at least the last eight of the tournament, and most likely the last four.
If backing each-way, we should look for players who we think will score four goals, which will most likely be from a nation that will progress into the knockout stages.
If considering a second-tier nation, such as Croatia, Denmark, Turkey or Hungary, be sure to choose a player expected to start every match, play most if not all the match, and take penalties. For example, Kramaric for Croatia (150/1) or Szoboszlai for Hungary (150/1).
For an each-way pick from one of the bigger nations, again consider someone who will start every match and play most minutes. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a striker; for example, Saka for England (33/1) or Bruno Fernandes for Portugal (50/1).
Finally, be sure to look at nations likely to score goals. Germany, for example, will face Scotland, Hungary, and Switzerland. Portugal will play against Turkey, the Czech Republic, and Georgia. Belgium will compete against Ukraine, Romania, and Slovakia.
18+ please gamble responsibly.
Written by Andy Robson
