It is quite surprising to see the goal line quite so high for an Oxford home match, even if they are playing Millwall, who seem to only play in binary at the moment.

Dealing with Millwall first, because their match in Portsmouth this midweek was called off, all of their data that was correct ahead of that match still applies. Their last 2 matches have seen spoils shared at 1-1.

Millwall have actually been more creative in attack than their recent goals record would suggest as well. They have created 1 xG or more themselves in 5 of their last 7 matches.

They should be favourites to score at least 1 here too. Oxford now have the 2nd worst defence in the Championship when it comes to xGA, conceding 28.3 xG in 17 matches, an average of 1.66 xG per match. Whilst the Yellows’ home record is still much better than their away record, there are still plenty of concerns over their ability to keep teams out.

The 6-2 defeat last time out to Middlesbrough will have given Millwall something of a blueprint to follow when attacking the Oxford defence. Eight of Oxford’s last 10 matches have crossed the 1.5 goals mark, and even the 1-0 matches against Watford and Hull that didn’t, saw 3.1 xG and 1.72 xG in the matches respectively.

Oxford are likely to make Dane Scarlett a more important part of their attacking line-up, which could make a difference to their own goal threat as well. The loanee has looked very dangerous when used from the bench, and, indeed, has moved alongside Mark Harris as Oxford’s top scorer on 4 goals, but on less than half of the minutes played.

Millwall are slightly underperforming their xG total at this stage, which suggests that there will be a time in the near future when goals will come for them more readily and in line with the chances that they are creating.

There’s no doubt that Middlesbrough’s performance on Wednesday night was disappointing. The team and the stadium looked and felt flat, and whether this was as a result of the illness that has been through the camp or not we will never really know.

The performance did throw this tip into doubt temporarily, but, there is no getting away from the difference in the data or results between the two teams in general over the course of the season, and over recent weeks.

Before the 0-1 defeat against Blackburn, Middlesbrough had won 3 consecutive matches, scoring 15 goals in the process. In the event on Wednesday, John Eustace and his fresh Blackburn Rovers side were able to outwork and restrict Boro, whilst also decent chances were wasted.

It would probably be fair to chalk the match down as one of those things, with the illness that swept through the Boro squad clearly disrupting plans, and then a series of injuries and stoppages early in the game very much disrupting the momentum of the game as well.

Essentially, the data, and the eye test, suggest that Middlesbrough are a better team than Hull at this moment. The Hull decision-makers clearly agree with that sentiment, hence their decision to sack Tim Walter this week.

The German has been dismissed having failed to really get a handle on how to balance the Hull squad effectively, so whilst the Tigers have sometimes looked impressive going forward, their defensive record has been really poor.

It seems like a big ask of Andy Dawson to undo all of the work of Walter in a couple of training sessions, and so whilst we may not see a Hull team which is as cavalier as they may have been under Walter, there is still a lack of confidence and frailty about a group of players who have lost 4 in a row and haven’t won in the league since 1st October – 10 matches ago.

It is likely that Boro will have one or two key players back from illness for the weekend, and that should be enough to return to their previous levels of performance and get back to winning ways.

Whilst there is some belief that Bristol City are an above-average Championship team, this bet is mainly about getting against Plymouth away from home again.

There were lots of doubts about their form and ability away from home ahead of their trip to Norwich on Tuesday, but the fears of Argyle fans were nothing but confirmed by a display in which they were totally outclassed.

Norwich had created over 2 xG by the midway point of the first half, at one stage they were on course for a record xG haul, the fact that they stopped at only 3.15 xG was a small mercy, albeit the final score of 6-1 to Norwich was still a fair result.

Plymouth did manage 13 shots in reply to Norwich, but they totalled only 0.62 xG. That makes it a perfect 10 out of 10 away matches in all competitions in which Plymouth have failed to reach 1 xG. This means that they have been unlikely to score in every single away game this season based on the chances they have created.

This is obviously a problem in and of itself, but when this is combined with a defence which has now conceded 23 goals in 9 away matches, things look bleak.

Plymouth continue to sit bottom of both xGF and xGA tables in the Championship. Bristol City are 11th for xGF and 10th for xGA, so almost everything about the Robins is almost stubbornly mid-table.

Even mid-table standards should be more than enough to get the job done at home to Plymouth at the moment though. A double away gameweek, as discussed elsewhere, means that Plymouth really do have their work cut out at Ashton Gate, even if it is a relatively short journey for a change.

The Championship’s favourite entertainers were at it again in midweek. Norwich banged in 6 goals against Plymouth on Tuesday, though they still managed to find a way to concede 1 as well.

It is the propensity to concede as well as score plenty, current totals are 31 scored and 25 conceded in 17 matches, which makes the over 2.5 goals angle look very attractive. Both teams to score is a shorter price, but Norwich could potentially cover this line on their own, and, to be honest, so could Luton, if they catch Norwich on a bad day.

Luton have only been foiled from scoring by Sheffield United and Leeds United in the last 15 matches, and Norwich are not comparable to those two teams from a defensive standpoint.

4 of Luton’s last 5 Championship away matches have gone over 2.5 goals, mostly from Luton conceding goals. They have conceded 3 against Plymouth, 2 against Sheffield United, 3 against Coventry, 5 against Middlesbrough, and 3 v Leeds on Wednesday, in consecutive away matches.

It is easy to see Norwich being able to take advantage of this trend. Norwich did go through a little blip in their attacking output before the Christmas break but have returned with the attacking mindset very much restored. They are still missing some key attacking cogs from their machine, but the mindset instilled in them by Johannes Hoff Thorup shines through regardless of personnel.

It does also help when you have the Championship top scorer in such terrific form as well, Borja Sainz netted a hat-trick on Tuesday and now sits on 14 league goals so far this term.

Between leaky defences and some proven attacking talent, there looks to be a lot of potential routes to 3 goals in this match.

There is a lot of evidence now to suggest that Scott Parker’s approach with Burnley is paying dividends. Whilst it may not be a great watch for the Burnley fans or the neutrals, it is producing a very consistent set of results for the Clarets and is keeping them in touch of the automatic promotion places.

The individual quality of the forward players at Burnley is often producing at least one moment per match to get the team on the scoresheet, but it is the collective will of the team, the tactical approach of the coaching team, and a tiny touch of fortune, that is helping Burnley keep the number of goals that they have conceded so far to a historic low.

Another clean sheet in the week at home to Coventry means that Burnley have conceded only 6 Championship goals in 17 matches, and made it 4 clean sheets in a row, and a remarkable 9 in 11 Championship matches.

Stoke have been a more attacking-oriented team under Narcis Pelach but it isn’t really converting well into goals for the Potters. They are unbeaten in 5 now, albeit the last 3 of them have been draws, which would still be a win for this bet of course, but there is nothing outstanding about Stoke’s form which would have Burnley massively concerned heading into this one.

Stoke have failed to win 6 of their 9 Championship home matches so far this season, and Burnley have avoided defeat in 7 of their 9 away league games. Keeping the draw onside here could be critical as it is difficult to see a great number of goals being scored and so the draw will always be in play in this case.