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Another winning 9/1 EFL accumulator midweek (one selection voided) is the latest notch in the belt of our EFL experts. That’s now three winning accumulators over the last month, including a 12/1 and a whopping 40/1 winner!
Now we turn our attention to this weekend’s 5/1 accumulator, focusing solely on four Championship bets ahead of Saturday’s 3pm kick-offs. We have action at both ends of the table, with Leeds welcoming hapless Rotherham and a possible goal-fest in Plymouth Argyle v Swansea!
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Saturday’s 5/1 Championship Accumulator Tips
Ipswich v Preston
The Tractor Boys continue to plough through the Championship. The display at home to Hull in midweek was, in many ways, their most impressive performance this season to date.
It may not have been the flashiest, or where they have scored their most goals, but from a tactical perspective, the team carried out their instructions to a tee. Hull were very limited in what they were able to achieve, and this is a team that had been doing really well this season, and they were hit with some very good goals.
One goal in particular, Conor Chaplin’s goal, has been doing the rounds on social media to demonstrate just how well Kieran McKenna has his team playing from back to front. It is the perfect demonstration as to why more and more teams are trying to play their way out from the back. This is what Preston North End have to work out how to deal with for this weekend.
Ryan Lowe has already had 90+ minutes to try and work this out against Leicester, albeit all teams have different ways of structuring their build-up. Whatever North End tried against Leicester seemed to work for almost an hour, but the Foxes eventually broke through and ran out comfortable winners.
There is an air of similarity about how this game could play out. Often Ipswich will find a way through early, and then are smart about how they deal with their lead. PNE are a tougher cookie than most in the league so it may take a bit longer, but Ipswich create far, far more than them (17.8x G vs 9.9 xG so far this term) and that weight of shooting opportunities should tell in the scoreline over the full course of the match.
Leeds v Bristol City
The Elland Road faithful probably did not enjoy the midweek win over QPR as much as they might’ve thought. Once they took the lead through Crysensio Summerville in the first half, we expected them to be able to stretch their legs and win quite comfortably. The fact that they didn’t perhaps speaks more to their inaccurate finishing than QPR’s ability, but it is still a slight concern.
However, QPR managed only five shots in the whole match, with 0 on target and 0.3 xG generated. This level of control from Daniel Farke’s side is encouraging ahead of this match.
Bristol City are probably more of a challenge from an attacking perspective than QPR. Tommy Conway demonstrated his ability in the week by coming off the bench to score twice and snatch a victory for the Robins against Rotherham. The win was probably not deserved, and combining this with the capitulation from 2-0 up to lose to Stoke last weekend, there are elements of concern for Nigel Pearson, even though they are probably on or ahead of target in terms of points accumulated this season.
Leeds are, undoubtedly, the stronger squad and first XI in this match. The Whites have won the xG battle in all of their home games so far this season as well, more convincingly so in their last two matches. Even though they only notched once in midweek, that came off the back of 1.8 xG and 16 shots with three big chances, so they were value for a greater winning margin.
Plymouth Argyle v Swansea
The Pilgrims failed to score on their own patch for the first time since 10th April when they suffered defeat in midweek against Millwall.
In truth, their display wasn’t a bad one. They dominated the ball and had 21 shots, but Millwall were savvy enough to keep them at arm’s length. There was very little box penetration from the Pilgrims with the vast majority of their shots either coming from outside of the box or at a difficult angle. Indeed, their open play xG was down at 0.54, a total easily surpassed by their opponents with fewer than half of the shot total.
It is this that Steven Schumacher will know is the danger for Argyle at this level. They are a team capable of scoring plenty of goals, but there are so many opponents who are going to be capable of soaking up pressure and hitting them precisely on the counter-attack. Swansea are a team that, under Michael Duff, can probably do it both ways.
Swansea will have the ball more than Millwall did and can build attacks that way, but Duff has always been able to generate chances in transition. His Cheltenham and Barnsley sides were excellent at this, and now that Swans are showing more confidence, and getting goals and wins under their belt, they have become a very tricky customer indeed.
Three wins on the spin for Swansea, with eight goals scored and just one conceded, just highlights the upturn in form that they have produced. The midweek game against Norwich was probably the pick of the round in the Championship in terms of entertainment value with 37 shots, 3.83 xG generated, and six big chances. It was a deserved win for Swansea against one of the better teams in the division.
Both teams have been shot happy of late, which should translate into an entertaining game with plenty of chances.
Southampton v Rotherham
After a run of defeats, things have settled down in Southampton’s favour of late, preparing to welcome Rotherham on Saturday. Two wins in a few days against Leeds and away to Stoke have shown that there is some character in Russell Martin’s side as well as a great depth of quality.
It was more of a solid, hardworking display against Stoke as they denied the Potters any big chances. Stoke took 15 shots in the match, but none could be described as big chances by definition.
Saints themselves created two big chances, neither were converted, but Stuart Armstrong scored an archetypal goal from outside the area, a textbook free-kick, to win it. This is the key to the bet, Southampton actually have multiple ways in which they can score their goals.
They haven’t blown the competition away with their actual goals or expected goals tallies, though both totals are in the top ten, but the ability of the likes of Adam Armstrong, Stuart Armstrong, Carlos Alcaraz, Che Adams and co to score goals from different types of situations is very strong indeed.
Meanwhile, whilst Rotherham can probably count themselves unfortunate to lose their game in midweek to Bristol City, they had double the xG that Bristol City achieved, but they are lacking in confidence.
The rumours have begun about the future of Matt Taylor in the dugout with the spectre of Neil Warnock hovering over the New York Stadium. There is definite unrest in the fanbase which will not help the Millers in this match.
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