Derby are still a team in the Championship that we want to bet against. They have lost the xG battle in each of their three matches so far, despite managing to scrape a 1-0 win at home to Middlesbrough.

In that home match the Rams had only three shots in the whole game, conceding 20 to Boro. This is the sort of win that is unsustainable, and whilst Derby may improve, there is no evidence to believe that they would likely be the better team here.

Bristol City actually sit in the top five of the league at this moment for xGF, with a total of 4.6 xG over their first three matches. Derby are sitting down in 19th for the same metric, so Bristol City have shown a bit of an edge over their opponents in creating chances.

The Robins are also ahead of Derby for xG conceded, though there isn’t much in it with City conceding 4.5 xG and Derby 4.7 xG over the first three matches. Neither team is rock solid so far in defence, though both managers have good reputations for keeping a good shape behind the ball, so a tight match cannot be ruled out.

Taking the draw on our side makes the bet quite a safe one. From the personnel in each squad, along with the form seen in terms of results and performances combined this season, there is a wide difference in expectation for these two sides. Derby are braced for a relegation battle, whereas Bristol City will be aiming for a top half finish and potentially at least a flirtation with the play-offs.

The indications are that City should win the xG battle here, even away from home, and therefore, taking at least a point from this match should be well within the capabilities of Liam Manning’s side.

Tim Walter’s Hull haven’t managed to hit their straps yet. Previous experience of Walter’s football style in Germany led us to expect that there would be some degree of chaos, “heart-attack football” was a phrase used to describe Walter’s approach to the game.

However, the Hull results have been 1-1, 1-1, and 0-0, hardly inspiring on the face of it. Those results came against Bristol City, Plymouth, and Millwall, none of which would be described as potential league winners, certainly not in the same breath as Leeds would be. In theory, this is Hull’s most difficult league game of the season, and certainly a step up on what Walter and his troops have encountered so far this season.

After a slow start, there were signs of improvement from Leeds in the away win at Sheffield Wednesday last time out in the Championship. They kept their opponents at arm’s length, conceding only 0.43 xG and no big chances, whilst creating 1.19 xG themselves and creating three big chances.

Leeds have only played at Elland Road once in the Championship this season, and that was the 3-3 draw against Portsmouth on opening day. They have since tightened up a lot from a defensive perspective whilst on the road, but this match does give encouragement that Leeds can create chances at home.

New signing Largie Ramazani should be available here for Leeds, and whilst he may not start, he does provide more depth and a real threat in the final third that will allow Leeds to keep the pressure on at a higher intensity across the whole match.

This is third vs 17th in the very early xGF standings in favour of Leeds, and Leeds also have the edge in xG conceded where it is second vs seventh in that metric as well.

Millwall at home are a traditionally low scoring team, which seems to be playing into the bookmaker models for this match, whilst Sheffield Wednesday have been very Jekyll and Hyde away from home as well.

However, there are lots of reasons to think that over 1.5 goals in this match is a good bet. Millwall and Sheffield Wednesday are actually both in the top four in the division for xG created (xGF) over the first three matches, so both attacks are functioning well. Indeed, the average xGF per match for each team would be over the goal line for the match on their own, with Millwall at 1.67 xGF and Wednesday 1.83 xGF.

Of course, Wednesday created the vast majority of their xG in the opening match against Plymouth, but their fixtures since then have been really tough, visiting Sunderland at the Stadium of Light and playing Leeds as well.

Stretching back into last season Wednesday have seen nine of their last ten away matches go over 1.5 goals, with only a 1-0 win at Rotherham not fitting the bill.

Millwall’s only home match so far this season was a topsy-turvy 2-3 defeat against Watford. It was a strange defeat in a way as Millwall actually won the xG battle in that match 1.9 v 1.0, so they created plenty of chances themselves.

Part of the issue that is making this a good bet though is how Millwall have also been conceding sloppy goals, which, one would imagine, will change at some point, but hopefully for us, this trend will continue for at least one more game.

Wayne Rooney’s beginning to his tenure at Home Park hasn’t been overly impressive so far. They have become the bookies’ favourites for relegation at this stage, and, whilst Steven Schumacher hasn’t quite had the start that he would’ve hoped for either, there are more reasons to believe in Stoke here than there are for Plymouth.

Plymouth’s only home Championship game so far this season was against Hull, who also haven’t hit their stride this season. The Pilgrims lost the xG battle in that match, but earned a draw with a decent finish from loanee Ibrahim Cissohko. Whilst that was a narrow loss on xG, Plymouth’s other Championship matches have been very concerning in terms of performance.

There is clearly a difference, at least so far, in Plymouth at home and Plymouth away from home. However, there are other reasons to be concerned, especially with Argyle now facing a couple of suspensions after two red cards in their last league game, not ideal with their already thin squad depth.

Stoke had a brilliant, morale boosting 5-0 win away at Middlesbrough in the EFL Cup in midweek. This should really have an impact in terms of confidence, with many first choice players having a hand in the victory. Million Manhoef got two goals in the win, and is continuing his excellent start to life with Stoke after joining in January, proving to be a real difference maker in matches like this.

Plymouth face uncertainty over the future of key player and key goal threat Morgan Whittaker ahead of this match as well, which may make their top scorer from last season unavailable for this match.