This price seems to be primarily based on Angel Gomes’ rate of fouls for his club side Lille. Gomes is only averaging 0.59 fouls per 90 in Ligue 1 this season, which would justify this kind of price for a foul here.

However, using that data would be misleading in this case. Gomes’ role for Lille is much more advanced, playing most of his minutes in attacking midfield, often as a #10, or as an attacking #8, whereas Lee Carsley has used Gomes in a much deeper role. Whilst this doesn’t necessarily mean that Gomes is a ball-winner, it does seem to have affected the number of fouls that he has conceded in an England shirt.

This is a very small sample size, but Gomes’ two starts for England against Finland saw him commit at least one foul on each occasion, indeed four in total, which represents 30% of all of England’s fouls during those two matches.

The Greece game at Wembley didn’t feature Gomes at all but was widely believed by many to have been a very unbalanced performance, and an experiment that Carsley is not likely to attempt to replicate. Gomes was straight back in for the next match and played 80 minutes.

With the absence of Declan Rice, Gomes may have a little more responsibility to ensure that the defence has some protection, so this seems like an excellent price for a single foul here.

Scotland need three points from this fixture if they have any desire to remain in Nations League A. The Tartan Army currently sit bottom of their group with one point, earned in a 0-0 draw in their last Nations League game at Hampden against Portugal.

That match was something of a rearguard action, losing the xG battle 0.43 v 1.47, so a goalless draw was a fairly unlikely result, and Scotland will need to show more ambition against Croatia.

In the return fixture in October, Scotland took the lead after half an hour through Ryan Christie, before Croatia came back to win 2-1. This match provides more of a template of how we expect this match to look, with Scotland coming out to take the game to Croatia, but with the more experienced Croatians being the deserved favourites.

Croatia do seem to like the Nations League, as evidenced by them reaching the final of the competition last time, but they need to win both of the last two fixtures in this group to have a chance of topping the group ahead of Portugal. Therefore they should be all out for the win here as well, which should be a good recipe for goals.

Three out of four of Scotland’s Nations League games this autumn have gone over 2.5 goals, and Croatia have exactly the same ratio of matches going over 2.5 goals. The odds are even between over and under here, but there seems to be slightly more evidence pointing towards the overs being the better option.

Turkey’s renewal in forward areas looks to point towards a really exciting generation. The jewel in the crown though appears to be Real Madrid’s teenager, Arda Güler.

Güler can already boast plenty of experience having broken through at Fenerbahce as a 16-year-old and playing over 1000 minutes at 17, before a move to Real Madrid. He is still playing very much a rotation role at the Spanish Champions, but having him playing alongside some of the best players in the world is surely likely to only benefit Turkey as a national team.

Güler is a good bet for a goal here because he has become the player that has been trusted the most by Vincenzo Montella. As is often the case in the modern game, the forward unit has been rotated heavily during the matches in the Nations League, but Güler has been the one that has remained on the pitch the longest, playing 89 minutes against Iceland, 83 minutes against Montenegro, and the full match against Iceland previous to that.

Kerem Akturkoglu has taken the bulk of the goals so far, mainly thanks to a hat-trick against Iceland, but there is inconsistency about where he is playing for Turkey, and how long he will have on the pitch. Güler has been a constant threat recently as well, registering 0.15 xG, 0.68 xG and 0.71 xG in his last three matches for Turkey.

Wales will not go to Turkey and sit back here. Craig Bellamy’s side are only two points behind Turkey with two matches to go, and promotion to the top level of the Nations League is within reach. With Bellamy’s mentality, and the change of approach since he took charge of the national team i.e. increasing the attacking threat, there are goals in this match.

Wales’ match xG totals in the Nations League so far read 3.28 v Turkey, 3.92 v Montenegro (A), 3.57 v Iceland, and 2.19 v Montenegro (H). With promotion on the line here, i.e. something to play for, it could be a really exciting and open game. This provides the platform for Güler to have the chance to assert his ability on the match and add to his goal against Iceland in Turkey’s last Nations League match.