In this article…
Italy v France
📅
Kick Off: Sunday 17th November at 19:45
🏆
Competition: UEFA Nations League
Italy host France in San Siro on Sunday, aware that simply avoiding a two-goal defeat will be sufficient for them to claim first place in Nations League Group A2.
The Azzurri have been the class team in the pool ever since overcoming Les Bleus 3-1 in Paris – a match they fell behind in the very first minute. The recovery from Luciano Spalletti’s side has thereafter been excellent and they would make worthy group winners.
France, meanwhile, travel after a rather dull scoreless draw with Israel, in which their lack of offensive inspiration only fuelled the chatter surrounding Kylian Mbappe’s absence from the squad. A far better display is needed if they are to shock their hosts in this Milan clash.
⭐ Italy v France Best Bet
Frattesi is a huge price to have at least one shot on target given his clear importance to Spalletti’s side and what he has provided to Italy so far in the Nations League.
Across the five games he has played, he leads Italy in goals and shots on target, while he is tied first in shots. He has had at least one shot on target in each fixture, managing two in his previous outing against France – a game in which he scored in.
👕 Italy v France Predicted XI
🔍 Italy v France Players To Watch
⚪ Manu Kone
France midfielder Manu Kone is the type of player who attracts fouls in the middle of the park, and against Italy, the story is unlikely to be any different. Indeed, when the Roma star last faced the Azzurri, he drew two fouls, despite only playing a 33-minute cameo off the bench.
He has been fouled at least three times in each of his last five games, available at 2.1, and four in each of his last two France starts. Kone is drawing 4.17 fouls per 90 in the Nations League.
🔵 Davide Frattesi
Just as Frattesi is a long price to get a shot away on target, he is also a big price to commit just a single foul. He is, after all, the Italian who has given away the most fouls in this edition of the Nations League with six – an average of 1.3 per 90 minutes.
Furthermore, the 25-year-old has given away a foul in each of his last ten starts for club and country.
🔵 Mateo Retegui
Retegui looks well priced to have one or more shots on target given that he has done this in ten of his last 11 appearances for club and country.
The centre-forward caused France huge problems when the countries met in Paris, and although he was unable to get on the scoresheet, he still managed four shots plus one on target. With nine goals in his last 11 games, including two in three for Italy, he should be full of confidence prior to this clash.
📂 Italy v France Cheat Sheet
Andy’s Bet Club is the place to be for Expert Football Tips, including Nations League Acca Predictions and Home Nations Acca Tips.
We also offer Both Teams to Score Tips, plus bet builder-focussed picks such as our Anytime Goalscorer Tips, Player Shots On Target Tips, and Fouls Betting Predictions.
Our Sunday Cross League Acca and Result and BTTS Acca Tips are also well worth a read before you make your Sunday punts.
Get best bets sent to your inbox, it’s free.
💻 Italy v France Form and Tactics
Italy might have had problems scoring goals in recent years, but these appear to have been put to one side, with Spalletti’s side have netted 12 in the Nations League. No other League A side has managed as many, with Germany next best on 10.
This high return of goals has been more down to efficiency rather than a particularly attacking attitude. The Azzurri have bossed an average of 52% of the ball across their five games, while their average of 11.8 shots per game is thoroughly average. No other nation has done as much to make the most of their chances, though, with Italy having 47.5% of shots on target and scoring with an incredible 19% of all shots.
Davide Frattesi has encapsulated what this Italy side are about. He has scored three goals from the midfield, acting as the key link between the middle of the park and striker Mateo Retegui in a 3-5-1-1 formation. Together, this pair account for 28 of Italy’s 59 shots and 13 of their 28 shots on target.
If the volume comes from this Frattesi-Retegui combination, they have been able supported by a cast of six other scorers. This half dozen have been golden for Italy, not accounting for big figures in terms of shots or efforts on target but nevertheless chipping in valuably.
Another key cog, meanwhile, is left-sided player Federico Dimarco, who is very much encouraged to get forward in this system, acting as a midfielder more than a defender. It is down his flank Italy build most of their attacks.
France looked rather lost in terms of their approach against Israel. Faced with a low bloc, they struggled for inspiration either in terms of a collective or via an individual moment of brilliance. Christopher Nkunku had been tipped as a key player to break their opponents down, he curiously started as a substitute but did belatedly add life to the attacking line. It was too little, too late.
With qualification assured, Didier Deschamps will likely mix up his options in attack, though none look particularly appealing. France do not have a player in double figures in terms of international goals, with Kingsley Coman (eight in 56 caps) and Randal Kolo Muani (eight in 26) the most prolific players they have.
Roma’s Manu Kone should be brought into the midfield, where Eduardo Camavinga is suspended, to add some aggression that was missing against Israel, while in defence Lucas Digne will likely win a 50th cap and should provide more attacking solutions that Theo Hernandez offered against the Israelis.
🏁 Italy v France Ref Watch
- Referee: Slavko Vinčić (Slovenia)
- Vincic has overseen 10 matches this season, producing 39 cards at a rate of 3.9 per game. Only one red card across these matches.
- Has awarded three penalties this season, all of which have come in his last six matches.
- Took charge of three matches at Euro 2024, including Italy’s loss to Spain, where he averaged 25.33 fouls per game.
Football Betting Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club
Our guide on How To Use A Cheat Sheet is the perfect way to get involved with our Bet Builder Stats tool, the best freely available data source for bet builder crafting.
We recommend the Best Betting Sites For Accumulators, Top Bet Builder Sites, and the best Free Bet Offers and Weekly Free Bet Clubs, all to ensure you bet smarter when backing our tips with the Best UK Sports Betting Sites.
Expert guides, such as this one, on xG In Football, are also available to help you up your punting game, while we’ve also put together a list of the best Nations League Free Bet Offers.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.
