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France v Italy
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Kick Off: Friday 6th September at 19:45
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Competition: Nations League
France’s encounter with Italy in the Nations League is a clash between footballing royalty at the Parc des Princes on Friday in what is undoubtedly the showpiece showdown of the week’s international fixture program.
Azzurri boss Luciano Spalletti is already feeling the squeeze following the Italians’ disappointing Round of 16 exit from Euro 2024 in the summer and another poor showing in the French capital would increase the pressure on the under-fire coach.
France v Italy Best Bets
It is difficult to make any sort of a case for Italy ahead of their trip to play France at the Parc de Princes.
The Italians mustered just 3.30 in xGF in total across their three matches at Euro 2024 and looking at the squad they’re taking to Paris, they look ill-equipped to lay a glove on Les Bleus from an attacking perspective.
Instead, there is still enough value in backing France to win. The French haven’t been the most attractive side to watch, however, they remain an effective results machine under Deschamps for the most part and they have lost only three of their last 20 matches in all competitions.
They won’t need to be prolific to beat this toothless Italian team and a low-scoring home win is anticipated.
Elsewhere, Kylian Mbappe to have 4+ shots is an attractive prospect. The 25-year-old failed to score from open play at Euro 2024, though he still averaged 4.46 shots per 90 minutes at the tournament, while Mbappe has also been averaging a massive 6.49 shots (p/90) in La Liga for Real Madrid so far this term.
Most of France’s attacking manoeuvres usually end with an Mbappe effort, so expect him to rack up the attempts again here.
📂 France v Italy Cheat Sheet
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📊 France Form and Stats
France were eliminated in the semi-finals of Euro 2024 in Germany by eventual winners Spain in the summer, but while they made the last four of the competition, they flattered to deceive throughout.
Didier Deschamps’s popularity isn’t exactly universal in France with many observers and supporters of the opinion that the long-serving head honcho struggles to get the best out of Les Bleus’ deep pool of talent.
Despite the array of attacking options at their disposal, France managed to score only six goals in four games at the Euros, while Les Bleus ranked 16th out of 24 teams for average shots on target mustered per 90 minutes at the competition (3.63).
France also ranked a middling 13th for average possession controlled per game (50.8%) and much of their attacking blueprint centred around feeding Kylian Mbappe as often as possible.
The Real Madrid star had 23 attempts and eight shots on target at the Euros. That was the same tally that Antoine Griezmann (12), Ousmane Dembele (eight) and Randal Kolo Muani (three) managed between them.
Mbappe’s only goal in the summer came from the spot against Poland in the group phase however, and the 25-year-old has scored just twice in his last 11 appearances for his country overall.
In truth, France’s run to the semis at Euro 2024 was built on defensive solidity. They didn’t concede a single goal from open play in five matches before their loss to Spain in Munich and no team conceded fewer shots per 90 minutes in Germany (7.74) than the robust French.
📊 Italy Form and Stats
Italy fell well short of expectations when they were dumped out of Euro 2024 at the Round of 16 stage after they were eliminated by unfancied Switzerland having squeezed through a tough group behind Spain and ahead of Croatia.
Head Coach Luciano Spalletti, who has been in charge for just 14 games since his appointment in September last year, has been fielding questions about his future, though he says he is determined to “create a new group, a new team” that can “feel the beauty of the Azzurri shirt even more.”
To that end, he named 12 players in his current squad who have collected seven or fewer caps, while a further 12 of the names on the Italian roster for the September international break are aged 24 or under.
Spalletti got the Italian gig having transformed Napoli into Italian champions while playing some eye-catching attractive football, though he has struggled to transfer his philosophy to the international scene so far.
The 65-year-old has a modest 50%-win rate since taking charge of his country, while Italy have been averaging 2.07 goals per game under his instruction. The Italians have notched one or fewer goals in six of their last nine fixtures overall.
At the recent Euros, Italy managed to muster just 2.50 shots on target per 90 – only four teams at the tournament fared worse in that regard.
Goal-scoring issues could be a major headache again for Italy this month. Their squad looks achingly light on goal getters with Lorenzo Pellegrini and Giacomo Raspadori the joint-leading scorers on their current panel with just six goals each.
⚔️ France v Italy Head-to-Head
European heavyweights France and Italy have been familiar foes since their first encounter over a century ago in 1910, though Friday’s tussle will be the nations’ first meeting in six years.
In June 2018, a Didier Deschamps-coached French team featuring N’Golo Kante, Antoine Griezmann, Ousmane Dembele and Kylian Mbappe eased to a 3-1 friendly fixture win over Italy in Nice to extend a run of positive results for Les Bleus against their Italian counterparts.
Indeed, France came out on top in all three of the sides’ friendly meetings over a six-year period between 2012 and 2018, with both teams impacting the scoresheet in all three matches (3-1, 3-1, 2-1).
France and Italy last met competitively when they shared Group C at Euro 2008. On that occasion, an early red card for Les Blues defender Eric Abidal proved decisive and with a one-man advantage, Italy completed a 2-0 win.
Trips to compete on French soil have rarely gone well for Italy however, and they haven’t won a match in Paris since 1954.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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