Nothing about the way that France played on Thursday against Israel suggests that they will be able to go to Italy and win, particularly in light of their heavy 3-1 loss against Luciano Spalletti’s side in September – a match in which they were considerably better armed for.

Les Bleus come into this match without several of their key attacking players, including Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele, and they appeared to be sorely missed as they put up a sterile performance against Israel in a scoreless draw in midweek.

On the other hand, Italy are vibrant. They have won four of their five matches to date in the Nations League, even going to Belgium on Thursday and scoring an impressive victory.

Italy dominated France when they met in Paris. Their victory was fully deserved, with Luciano Spalletti’s men dominating in terms of xG 1.74 to their hosts’ 1.05. Although they did not generate many more shooting opportunities than the French, the opportunities they did fashion were big.

Although Italy have the reputation of being a pragmatic side, under Spalletti they have been rather more adventurous and that should lead them to making at least four shots on target in Milan against France.

Across their five Nations League fixtures, Italy have been active when it has come to getting shots on goal, mustering at least four in each match they have played. Indeed, they are posting an average of 5.6 and a range between four and eight.

Although France have impressive defensive personnel, they have been short of the sum of their parts, conceding five times in five games. They have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road.

Les Bleus’ tally of 19 shots on target conceded across five games is skewed by their two matches against Israel in which their opponents managed only two total efforts on target. In their other three games, they have conceded at least four, including seven last time out against Belgium.

After being benched by France on Thursday, Nkunku will surely be brought back into the fold for this game after looking a rare ray of offensive light in what was otherwise a rather stilted performance from Deschamps’ men against Israel.

The Chelsea attacker was only given 20 minutes in the midweek game yet still managed two shots (one on target), and will seek to make a sizeable impact from the outset of this encounter.

He has started nine games for club and country this season and has managed at least two shots in each of his last eight. The exception was against Manchester City on the opening day of the Premier League season, when he was replaced before the hour mark.

With his minutes at club level limited, Nkunku will hope to use this match as an opportunity to build his fitness and get some serious pitch time against quality opponents, so should be given much of the game.

Manu Kone will very likely be brought into the France starting XI for the third time in the Nations League to bring some energy to an area that was in lacklustre midweek form.

The Roma midfielder is a foul magnet. In his last 16 appearances, he has won at least two free kicks on 13 occasions, a strike rate of more than 81%.

Kone has been getting more prolific when it comes to drawing fouls. He has won at least three in each of his last five matches and has drawn 11 in his last two outings for Roma alone.

In the previous match against Italy, he came on as a substitute with around 30 minutes remaining and managed to earn France two fouls.

He has not been substituted in either of the two previous matches he has played for France and the fact he was not used at all against Israel would tend to indicate he will get the full game here, particularly with Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni unavailable for this clash.

Frattesi may be a midfielder but he has been a vital arm of Italy’s attack in this Nations League campaign, leading the Azzurri in goals and shots on target. He has seven shots on target, which works out at 1.52 per 90 minutes.

The Inter star has had at least one shot on target in each of the five previous Nations League matches this season while he has had at least two shots in each of these games, showing he is getting a good volume of efforts away too.

He impressed last time out against France in Paris, he had four shots, including two on target. He also notably scored.

Frattesi is typically logging big minutes for Italy at present. Aside from the opening match against Les Bleus, when he was given an hour, he has played for at least 86 minutes of each Nations League match. Has been in and out of the Inter team, so the coach could have leeway to give him significant minutes here again.

Frattesi is not just an attacking asset for Italy, he is also active for them defensively and is a significant part of their press in the midfield, which has resulted in him producing a sizeable foul count in the five games he has participated in.

No Italy player has committed as many as the six fouls he has accumulated in the Nations League to date, 1.3 per 90. This rate is the second-highest tally recorded by an Azzurri player who has featured in more than 90 minutes of the competition, lagging behind only Riccardo Calafiori’s 1.79. The Arsenal defender is injured here.

Frattesi has given up at least one foul in each of his last four outings for Italy, while he is currently on a run of seven successive starts for club and country in which he has committed at least one indiscretion.

Retegui is Italy’s likely starting centre-forward for this encounter, and the Atalanta forward will expect to work France keeper Mike Maignan on at least one occasion in this match.

The 25-year-old has been in strong form when it comes to hitting the target with shots in the Nations League. With 1.71 per 90, he is second among all their players when it comes to volume of shots, with Giacomo Raspadori the only player outstripping him in this regard with 1.74.

He has had at least one shot on target in ten of his last 11 appearances for club and country.

France struggled to contain him in Paris in September. Although he was unable to score, he mustered an impressive four shots, one of which hit the target.

His confidence will be high after a recent burst of form that has seen him score nine goals in his last 11 matches, he has also netted two goals in his last three appearances for Italy.

Italy’s 3-1 win over France in September was not out of place when it comes to results between these nations, with each of the three occasions they have met ending in this scoreline. Previously, Les Bleus were the side that came out on top, albeit both in friendly matches.

Spalletti is a more adventurous coach than many of his predecessors, and this has results in a more entertaining team to watch. Indeed, their five Nations League games to date have produced an impressive tally of 18 goals, with the 1-0 win over Belgium in midweek the sole occasion there have not been three in one of their matches.

France’s games, too, have been worth watching – at least until they were held scoreless by Israel at the weekend as their opponents sat deep and frustrated them in a manner Italy are unlikely to do. Their five matches have produced 14 goals, with three of these having more than three strikes.

Both of France’s away games have seen plenty of goals, with a 4-1 win in Israel followed by a 2-1 success in Belgium last month.