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France v Italy Bet Builder Tips
European heavyweights France and Italy meet at the Parc de Princes in Paris for a high-profile showpiece Nations League showdown on Friday evening.
Les Blues are favourites to win the 2024/25 edition of the Nations League outright and Didier Deschamps’s talented outfit will be keen to put an early marker down against the struggling Azzurri in the French capital.
You can also check out our France v Italy betting preview for our expert’s favourite data-led selections.
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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip
🎯 Kylian Mbappe to have 1+ shots on target
📈 Odds: 1.17
Kylian Mbappe scored just once at Euro 2024 for France which was a hugely disappointing return by his old lofty standards, however, the Les Blues skipper lodged more attempts in the tournament (24) than any of his teammates.
France’s attacking gameplan under Didier Deschamps seems to centre around feeding Mbappe in the final third with the Real Madrid star tasked with putting the finishing touches to the majority of moves that are constructed.
Mbappe, who has been averaging 2.33 shots on target p/90 for Los Blancos in La Liga, averaged 4.46 shots and 1.55 shots on target per 90 in Germany and he should be just as heavily involved against Italy.
🚀 Ousmane Dembele to have 2+ shots
📈 Odds: 1.36
Dembele remains frustratingly erratic on the flank for France, capable of producing sublime and silly moments in equal measure, however, he is a consistent shot market performer and gets the nod to have at least two attempts against Italy.
Accuracy isn’t the 27-year-old’s forte, however, that doesn’t come into the equation this time. Dembele found the target with just one shot at Euro 2024, though he averaged 1.99 attempts per 90 at the summer tournament and the winger has also been clocking a sizable 4.68 shots p/90 at club level for PSG since August.
A static Italian backline could struggle to keep a lid on Dembele’s dynamism and he should have room to let fly in Paris.
🚩 Over 3.5 France corners
📈 Odds: 1.25
Only seven of the 24 nations that competed at Euro 2024 won more corners per 90 minutes than France (5.40) in the summer and Les Blues are an attractive prospect to win four or more corners at Italy’s expense in Paris.
With home advantage likely to give France the edge in terms or territorial control, France could keep Italy pinned back in their defensive third for large swathes of Friday’s contest.
Defending deep will be a must for Italy in Paris against a French frontline that thrives when given space to run into, and with the Azzurri likely to set up camp close to their own goal, the hosts should have a glut of corner-winning opportunities.
🏆 France to win
📈 Odds: 1.57
France’s elimination in the semi-final of Euro 2024 was seen as an underachievement, though Les Blues remain the toughest of nuts to crack and they have lost only three times in 2023 games since March 2023.
Two of those defeats were suffered in relatively meaningless friendlies, in fact, the only two competitive matches lost by France since December 2022 were the World Cup Final in Qatar and the aforementioned semi-final loss to Spain at Euro 2024.
Italy meanwhile, recorded just one win (vs Albania) in four attempts at the Euros and registered a poor combined xGF figure of just 3.30 across their four fixtures at the tournament. The Italians lack the firepower to match France in Paris.
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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip
🥅 Both teams to score – No
📈 Odds: 1.85
France and Italy both misfired badly from an attacking perspective at Euro 2024. The Azzurri found the net just once in their last three matches at the tournament and lodged the sixth-worst combined xGF at the tournament (3.30).
Les Bleus meanwhile, failed to fully harness the attacking power in their ranks and scored only four times across six matches in Germany, and that modest haul included two own goals and a penalty kick.
France’s run to the Euro 2024 semis was powered by defensive solidity. They conceded just three times in six games en route to the last four and finished the competition with the best record in terms of shots conceded per 90 (7.74).
A toothless Italy should find it tough to breach that expertly marshalled French backline, so back both teams not to score in Paris.
🟨 Ricardo Calafiori to be shown a card
📈 Odds: 3.50
Euro 2024 was a breakout tournament for Riccardo Calafiori, who showcased his sound defensive nous and composure in possession in Germany, however, he picked up two yellow cards in three group stage appearances at the tournament, denying him the chance to represent Italy in the Round of 16 against Switzerland.
Calafiori’s promise was identified and acted upon by Arsenal in the summer, but with William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes an established central-defensive pairing at the Gunners, the young Italian has seen limited action in England so far.
The 22-year-old has played just 44 minutes of football this season and Calafiori is likely to lack sharpness against France as a result. With ring rust a factor, he could mistime some challenges against a rapid French frontline and another Calafiori card could follow.
🚀 Lorenzo Pellegrini to have 1+ shots
📈 Odds: 1.20
Italy’s output in the final third at Euro 2024 was below par, however, attacking midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini did his best to drag his team’s numbers up and the 28-year-old averaged more attempts per 90 (2.89) than any of his Azzurri counterparts.
Pellegrini, who has averaged at least two shots per 90 minutes in each of his last seven seasons with boyhood club Roma in Serie A, loves to maraud forward to join the attack from midfield and his knack for crashing the box could be evident again against France.
The 34-times capped international needs just a single effort on goal for this leg to land making him an option with excellent bet-builder credentials.
🚀 Antoine Griezmann to have 2+ shots
📈 Odds: 1.50
Antoine Griezmann remains a key operator in the final third for France and the 33-year-old looked as classy as ever at Euro 2024, where he averaged 2.74 shots per 90 minutes for Les Bleus.
Griezmann had at least one strike at goal in 100% of his six runouts at the summer tournament and he has carried that impactful form into the new club campaign with Atletico Madrid where he has had a shot at goal in three of his four appearances in La Liga.
The veteran, who is usually near the front of the queue to take free kicks around the opponent’s penalty area, offers plenty of value in the 2+ shots bracket against Italy.
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At Andy’s Bet Club, we offer the best football betting tips with a huge range of betting content available throughout the week.
We feature a variety of Nations League betting predictions & bet builder tips, along with our Nations League acca tips for the rest of tonight’s fixtures.
You can also check out our 5/1 Nations League handicap betting tips, or our FPL gameweek 4 tips if you’re looking to get ahead of the curve in advance of the Premier League’s return.
Finally, we have collected the best free bet offers for this week’s football, along with our curated lists of the best bet builder bookmakers and best UK betting sites to place our tips on.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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