Despite taking advantage of a bad Colts team and throwing for over 300 yards, this is a great time to fade Trevor Lawrence. While the former first overall pick has had his highs and lows, it’s been a very disappointing season and this matchup isn’t about to get any better.

The Bears have been one of the strongest defenses in the league, specifically against the quarterback position ranking bottom 5 in passing yards and touchdowns allowed this season. Four of five opposing quarterbacks have gone under their prop total against the Bears and we’re expecting a similar outcome here today.

We also saw the breakout of Tank Bigsby last week who could be in-store for a much bigger role. We see a couple turnovers in Trevor Lawrence’s future, and we don’t think he can overcome it with enough passing yards in this one. Brian Thomas has been the explosive player to worry about but coverage from Jaylon Johnson will be his biggest step up of the season. Lawrence has only gone over this number in one game this season and we expect that to still be true on Monday.

Caleb Williams is one of my favorite sneaky targets across betting, fantasy, and DFS this week. While the season didn’t start out the way many expected for the rookie sensation, he’s put up enough positive signs on tape for me to be confident in backing him here. He’s coming off his best game with 338 total yards, 2 touchdowns, 126.2 passer rating, and a 69% completion percentage.

The Jaguars are last in Pass EPA/Play and have yielded an average of 299 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. With a solid rush defense and a well below average pass defense it’s very easy for opposing coordinators to gameplan for them. We’ve seen every QB except Watson absolutely destroy them this season.

The Bears already have one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL, with a below average run-blocking unit and D’Andre Swift who has lived on two big plays all year long. Backing the rookie in a primetime game against a bad defense is the perfect way to get his name back in the discussion.

Rome Odunze is one of my absolute favourite targets on the slate. While he is very high risk/high reward, he was one of the best paths to upside any receiver playing Sunday. While he can be inconsistent, he’s mostly used as a downfield weapon but he has seen some shorter-distance targets over the last couple of weeks.

What makes him so intriguing is his deep ball ability, he’s currently 2nd in average depth of target (15.3) among WRs with 25+ targets. Caleb Williams came out of the draft known for his deep ball but has struggled this season, he finally started putting the pieces together last week completing three of four passes of 20+ air yards. He gets a great matchup against Jacksonville, who are an extreme pass funnel with a strong rush defense and weak pass defense.

With heavy man coverage usage, they especially struggle to prevent deep plays, which is exactly what we’re expecting Odunze to do. This high-level rush defense will most likely shut down Swift on the ground, and we should see plenty of targets through the air.

Speaking of risky props, we will be backing Tank Bigsby in a volatile Jacksonville running back room. While Bigsby has been the more talented back this season, it seems like the team is very committed to keeping Travis Etienne Jr. involved despite his lacklustre performance.

Doug Peterson did come out this week and say he would remain the lead back, but he also has posted the second-lowest reliability rating via Coachspeak Index. Bigsby is an absolute advanced stats darling ranking 1st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt, 3rd in PFF grades, and 1st in Yards Per Carry.

68% of Tank Bigsby’s runs have been man/gap concepts, which is the third-highest rate in the NFL per @FantasyPtsData. The Chicago Bears’ defense has struggled against those looks, and with their high level pass defense we expect Jacksonville to be forced to run to their running backs in the red zone. He’s been one of the best tackle-breaking backs in the league and we’re expecting another impressive performance. He may split the workload down the field but should dominate the more important touches in the red zone.