This price looks unusually large for a single shot, especially when McGuinness is third most regular shooter in the starting line-up. Sky Bet have priced him as the 11th most likely Luton player to have a shot, and make him close to even money for it, suggesting the chances of McGuinness having a shot are close to 50:50.

Bet365 and William Hill don’t agree with this. They have priced McGuinness as a 1.5 and 1.25 shot, respectively, with William Hill’s price giving an implication of around 80% likelihood. This percentage difference of around 30% between the bookmakers is quite rare and when that happens it usually implies that at least one of the prices is incorrect, and there is potential value on offer.

In this case the Sky Bet price looks generous. Mark McGuinness is averaging 1.44 shots per 90 for Luton, and the sample size is getting bigger now. The former Cardiff man has now played 11 Championship matches for Luton, he has taken a shot on eight of those 11 occasions, 72% of the matches.

From his shot map it is clear that all of McGuinness’ shots take place inside the box. Indeed, 14 of his 16 shots have been headers, with 12 shots coming from corners.

Middlesbrough have conceded more corners at home recently, conceding six and eight in their last two home matches.

McGuinness has had at least one shot in four of his last five matches, a sequence of 1, 0, 2, 1, 1, and whilst his shot totals aren’t as high as they were when he hit four and five in consecutive matches against Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth, he has remained a consistent threat for Luton.

Middlesbrough’s last match against QPR offers a lot of encouragement for this bet too. Of QPRs six shots, three of them were from corners, with Anfernee Dijksteel’s own goal also coming from a corner. Jonathan Varane, Nicolas Madsen, and Jimmy Dunne all had efforts from corners, which suggests that there is a route to goal for Luton in a similar way.