Bristol City v Cardiff

With the inexperience that Nigel Pearson is using to build a new Bristol City side it has come to feel as though they are a more open side. Their attack has become more dynamic with the use of Antoine Semenyo as an advanced forward and Andi Weimann in support. Alex Scott has been enjoying a great breakthrough year and Han-Noah Massengo is finally being trusted with more game time. All of which is to say that there are plenty of routes to goal for Bristol City, but also naivety in some key areas too.

With the home side promising goals the away side could also do with looking threatening. In truth, in their last match against Blackburn Rovers they looked bereft of real quality. However, Blackburn’s defence can do that to a lot of attacks. Looking at the data though Cardiff’s away matches yield an average of 3.23 goals this season with 69% of them going over 2.5 goals.

There are some really positive trends in the xG data as well pointing towards goals. Bristol City, over the last four matches, report an xG of 3.39xG per 90, the highest in the league over that sample size. Cardiff’s is just over 2 but are at least averaging enough chances to score a goal a game.

Cardiff are more likely to score than not judging by the form and the data. Bristol CIty could easily score and concede in this match, that has happened in their last five Championship matches. Both Teams To Score here is around 1.67 which is a fine bet but I prefer the price for over 2.5 at 1.8.

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Bournemouth v Hull

Bournemouth were able to get back on the winning path last time they played at home against Cardiff. They have won over half of their home matches and averaged over two goals a game whilst doing so. Whilst their recent performances haven’t been vintage, they currently lie 8th in the league for expected points over the last four matches, they continue to have the second best xG ratio at home. This means that they are the second best team at the difference between creating chances and conceding them in the league.

Hull had a confidence boosting victory over another promotion contender in Blackburn on Wednesday. It was a good performance that will undoubtedly produce a surge of confidence alongside the great news of their takeover by new owners. However, they have a lot of ground to make up on this game. Hull have lost their last two away, concede an average of 0.5 goals more than they score on the road and their away xG ratio is third worst in the Championship. Only Barnsley and Peterborough have performed worse away from home.

Most of the data, form and match-reading wisdom points towards the Cherries being the side to favour in the match-up. There are a few options to get with them but I prefer the straight win. Whilst I do believe that goals are likely the case for the home win is slightly stronger.

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Coventry v QPR

Both of these sides have been relative surprise packages this season. Neither were strongly fancied to be where they are now but their ability to get the most out of their attacking players has been a key to their success.

Going off the raw numbers alone this match is the most likely to see goals at the weekend. Coventry home games average 2.58 goals per game with 58% going over 2.5 and QPR away matches average 3.33 with 83% of them going over 2.5. 

Coventry have a front pairing of Gyokeres and Godden and whilst the Swede was taking a lot of the headlines early on, it is the consistent scoring of Godden that is sustaining their play-off challenge. Either way, with this pair alongside #10 Callum O’Hare, deep playmaker Gustavo Hamer and their flying full-backs are always likely to create chances.

Reading QPR’s goal scorers out almost feels like an A-Z of “guaranteed Championship goals” with Charlie Austin (scorer of their winner against West Brom), Andre Gray, and Chris Willock. Also, with our eyes on a goals angle, the continuation of Seny Dieng’s participation in AFCON is a help towards this, making a QPR defence a couple of percent weaker.

The slight difficulty is deciding whether Both Teams To Score or Over 2.5 goals is the way to go. With Coventry notching four last week and QPR getting two in each of their last three away games there is potential for quite a few goals so we shall go with the Over 2.5 goals option.

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West Brom v Peterborough

West Brom continued their frustrating ways at the weekend. The team that remain at the top of the xG data sheets (2nd in xG ratio overall, 1st in xG ratio at home) continue to find a way to blow their chances going forward and concede just enough goals to not pick up the points to keep them in the promotion places. The likelihood is that Daryl Dike will be in from the start in this match which may well help give an added impetus to the forward line here.

What should also be a help is that they are playing the Championship worst away side by practically every metric. Peterborough’s away xG ratio has them 24th in the Championship, they have lost the most games away in the league,they have the most big chances against them away from home and they have the worst touches in the box ratio as well. So there is very little going for them in this fixture.

The question then becomes, which is the best way to get with West Brom. Their price to win the match is too short. They also struggle to put teams away convincingly at the moment, not scoring more than once in four home games. Interestingly, as they are expected to dominate, they have only been ahead at half-time in 25% of their home matches. Therefore, with the amount of pressure expected to be exerted by the home side it could be smart to back them to win the second half. Even if West Brom do lead in the first half, it is unlikely to be a convincing lead and also Peterborough will have to come out and then leave space in behind for West Brom on the break.

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