Millwall v Preston

A much welcomed win for Millwall at home to West Brom on Saturday released some of the pressure on the players ahead of this clash, but there are still a lot of concerns to be addressed. The Lions are being unfortunate with the personnel they are having to select going forwards with both of their main goal threats, Wallace and Bradshaw, missing at the moment.

Benik Afobe, and the addition of Oliver Burke, provide some pace and power which could trouble Preston, but neither are profilic marksmen. Millwall are creating enough chances to generate around 1 goal per game (1.08 non-penalty xG per90 over their last eight games) but almost half of that is generated through set pieces.

More concerningly they are conceding far more than that. 1.97 non-penalty xG against over the last four games is very unlike Millwall and shows that they aren’t as tight as you need to be when not creating that much. They survived due to more profiligate West Brom finishing on Saturday but Preston are unlikely to be as forgiving.

Ryan Lowe’s side are in good form and they are capable of scoring goals. Their chance creation is averaging over 1 xG per game (1.31 non-pen xG last four games) and keeping the opposition down under 1 xG against (0.86 non-pen xG last four games). With Riis, Archer and Evans to choose from as well as good prompting in behind from Ben Whiteman their match winning options are solid and in-form. I like their chances to get something from the game and an odds against shout for a draw no bet victory looks value.

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Swansea v Luton

Russell Martin is getting frustrated with the lack of progress in his Swansea side at the moment. The goals have dried up somewhat and their possession based model isn’t protecting the goal quite as well as he hoped. The combined xG in their matches sits at around 2 per 90 and evenly split between xG for and against. That’s partially what makes it difficult to nail a result opinion to the mast here.

Elijah Adebayo was missing for Luton on Saturday and if that is the case here then Luton have a problem in providing a cutting edge as well. Onyedinma and Jerome did well against Blackburn, but Jerome has failed to score a league goal & Onyedinma isn’t a natural central forward. Given the fact that the Hatters have been averaging under a goal xG per 90 going back 12 matches it is clear that they aren’t a generally high performing team in chance creation. This is enhanced away from Kenilworth Road as well.

It is an important match for both sides but neither will want to lose it. Swansea will be allowed plenty of the ball by Luton, who will look to spring counter-attacks. Therefore both sides will be playing the game they want to play. However, with this being so obvious and known pre-match the managers will be able to tactically nullify the other. Therefore, an unders bet is recommended.

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Huddersfield v Derby

The Rams continue to produce surprises which makes it difficult to side against them, especially at such skinny prices. The data suggests that they are still punching above their weight in terms of the number of points won as against chances created but they clearly have a backs-against-the-wall spirit that earns them those points. The attitude was summed up again on Saturday and with Krystian Bielik now available to play his part in matches their squad just took a sizeable uptick in quality.

However, despite the goals on Saturday it is still advisable to be against goals in Derby matches. Matches involving the Rams are producing the lowest combined xG rates in the competition, currently 1.52xG per 90 over the last four games. They have kept it tight at both ends most of the season and this isn’t a tactic that will change here.

Carlos Corberan’s Huddersfield have been name checked consistently for their organisation. Whilst they do create more and concede more chances on average than Derby, they are not a side to rely on for goals with no real prolific forwards at the club.

Derby should feel confident in keeping Huddersfield down to one goal and this encourages an unders wager.

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Barnsley v Cardiff

Barnsley’s rotten record at home was extended on Saturday with a 1-0 defeat against Bournemouth. The display was actually not a bad one though, but the goalscoring problem highlighted in last week’s preview continued to be a problem. That makes it 7 games out of 12 in which the Tykes have failed to score at home. Unless there is any transfer deadline day movement then you have to be sceptical that things will change drastically for them.

Cardiff upset the applecart with a tasty performance on Sunday and must run into this fixture with greater confidence. Their recent displays have them far ahead of Barnsley on most performance metrics, 2 more expected points over the last four fixtures, a higher xG for and a lower xG against total means that they would be regarded favourites if the two met at a neutral venue.

Home advantage has been non-existent for Barnsley this season so to increase their chances of victory so readily due to home advantage gives the nod for value to be with the away side here.

There was a consideration to add under goals to this wager and that would be a viable play as well but taking the away side draw no bet seems like the better play.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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