QPR have played 16 games at home this season in the league, whilst Derby have played the same amount on the road. From a total of 32 games, both teams have scored in 23 of them, a total percentage of 72%.

Derby have only kept one away clean sheet all season, whilst QPR have only failed to score twice at Loftus Road.

This bet would have landed in 7 of QPR’s last 8 home games, a turn around from earlier in the season when the R’s went 9 home games without a win.

Derby have only once away from home his season, with just 5 draws from the other 15 games. They have a new manager, but we’re not sure he could have had an effective impact within 24 hours to get them to win this game.

Attacking midfielder Chair has taken on average 2.3 shot per 90 this season, with 0.9 on target per 90.

We fancy QPR to be on the attack in this game, which should see Chair get plenty of chances to pull the trigger in and around the box. His accuracy is pretty good, with 40% of his shots hitting the target, so if he can increase his shot output to 3 or 4 this game, we should get one hitting the target.

Tireless midfielder Adams has been one of Derby’s more impressive players this season. His record of 8 yellow cards shows he is no averse to putting his foot in.

On average he commits 1.9 fouls per 90, so just less than the target here, but with a new manager to impress, and whose previous side committed the 3rd most fouls in the division, we can expect Adams to do his best to disrupt play in this game.

We’ve all heard of the new manager bounce, but just putting that to one side, we would have expected QPR to be odds on for this game given their strong home form over the last couple of months.

Derby have improved slightly in two games under caretaker boss Matt Hamshaw, earning a last gasp draw at Norwich, and recording a goalless draw at home to Oxford in midweek, but we don’t see that as strong enough form to prevent QPR winning this one.

John Eustace Blackburn side had picked up the 4th highest total of yellow cards per game this season. Although he won’t have had much time to get his ideas over to his new squad, a pretty simple one to implement is to ask them to get stuck into their opponents.

Even before his arrival, Derby have picked up more cards than their opponents away from home 9 times out of 16. QPR average less than 2 cards per game at home, so this looks a good spot to get with Derby cards.

Given we fancy QPR to win this game, it makes sense to try and get with a player who could contribute a goal or an assist.

Ilias Chair has the highest combined xG and xA of any QPR player, with a total of 6.13. He has registered 5 assist this season, but is yet to score from an xG of 2.31. That level of an underperformance is unlikely to continue, especially when you consider Chairs goal record over the last 5 seasons at this level reads 7-5-9-8-5.

Left full back Callum Elder has been shown 8 cards this season for The Rams, which is the joint highest tally along side Ebou Adams and Marcus Harness.

He is a solid option on the left side defence, the kind of player we think John Eustace will have no issues starting with away from home. Paul Smyth can be a tricky customer from the right hand side, with Jimmy Dunne also bombing forward from right back.