Kristiansund v Ham Kam

After three rounds there are just two teams who have no points in the Eliteserien table. Kristiansund are one of those sides and it has been a shockingly poor start for Christian Michelsen’s men. Probably the biggest concern is that they have faced two newly promoted sides and a Sarpsborg team who look mediocre. KBK haven’t even played against any of the real top teams yet! Kristiansund have an xGA of over 2 in every match so far – even against minnows Jerv last week when they lost 0-1. Kristiansund themselves have only scored twice in three games but should have hit the back of the net more times. Last week Moses Mawa missed a penalty at 0-1 down and it proved to be crucial.

Newly promoted Ham Kam got their first win of the season last week when they comfortably beat Sandefjord 3-0. They look like a very exciting side with their trio of attackers Enkerud, Eriksen and Kirkevold especially looking strong. Ham Kam offer both a physical and technical threat. They have the sort of confidence you would expect with any promoted team. Against Sandefjord last week their xG was 2.41 and that included one goal which was scored from distance. They create a lot of good chances although at the other end they have averaged over 1.5 xGA per game this season and aren’t particularly tight defensively. 

In the one previous Kristiansund home match this season they lost 2-3 in what was a wild match vs Sarpsborg. I suspect this will be a similar type of fixture and very end to end containing a lot of chances. Over 2.5 goals is probably the best bet, although you could also consider both teams to score at shorter odds. It would be a surprise if either side kept a clean sheet but just in case someone won 3-0 or 4-0 then over 2.5 is my preference. Defenders Dan Peter Ulvestad and Christoffer Aasbak both remain doubtful for Kristiansund due to injury which continues to be a problem for the home team.

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Lillestrøm vs Haugesund

The big shock of round two was Lillestrøm beating Molde 2-1 away from home. They needed a last minute winner, but few could deny they deserved the victory. LSK outgunned Molde 1.77 to 0.85 on xG and all match they bullied one of the top teams in Norway with their physicality and strong tactical gameplan. To restrict Molde to just 0.85 on their own home turf is pretty much unheard of in recent years. Lillestrøm had looked vulnerable defensively before that game but adapted their approach and reaped the benefits. They have 7 points after 3 games played and sit joint top of the table. This looks like it should end up a straightforward victory facing a Haugesund side who have started the season terribly.

The team nicknamed the ‘Seagulls’ have lost all three games and have not looked very impressive in any of their fixtures. It looked like they might earn a 0-0 draw vs Stromsgodset last week, but they succumbed to quite a late goal to eventually lose 0-1. There is no backbone to the defence now that Benjamin Hansen has left for Molde. Once again, they conceded a goal due to an inability to head the ball away properly. They are seriously vulnerable against big physical sides, which does not bode well ahead of this fixture because half of the Lillestrøm players are built like tanks! Haugesund’s xGA vs Godset was only 1.01 which was an improvement on the first two rounds where they conceded a ton of chances. 

Even if Haugesund make some more slight improvements here it is still very difficult to see them avoiding defeat. Lillestrøm are by far the better side and also have a nice matchup edge with their style and sheer physique. They beat Jerv 4-0 in their previous home game and something similar again wouldn’t be a surprise. The best bet is simply to take them straight on the nose to win the match at a very acceptable 1.62. Even if they are not at their best then LSK could still probably sneak a 1-0 or 2-0 win by scoring from a set piece or by winning ugly. Haugesund are devoid of any confidence, have a thin squad and just don’t seem in any sort of form to obtain a result against anyone right now.

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Vålerenga v Jerv

One of the worst ever Vålerenga defeats in the Eliteserien was their 5-1 mauling at the hands of Bodo/Glimt last week. They were absolutely tortured and could have lost by any number. The Vålerenga keeper Kjetil Haug actually made a string of saves otherwise they could have been hit for double digits! It is true they were facing a side who are currently the best in Norway, but for manager Dag Eilev Fagermo it was probably one of the worst moments of his career. He is a proud man and will almost certainly demand a big reaction this week. He must sort out his defence, which in three matches has the highest average xGA of any team in the league at 1.70. 

Newly promoted Jerv will be delighted that they have won 2 out of 3 games, both of which were tight 1-0 victories at home vs Godset and Kristiansund. It is clear that nobody is going to enjoy visiting their stadium and that they will fight hard for everything, despite a limited budget. In their one previous away match Jerv got easily beaten 4-0 by Lillestrøm and I suspect they might struggle a lot on their travels this season. This could be another difficult visit to the Oslo region. Jerv had their best statistical match of the season vs Kristiansund outgunning them 2.05 to 1.50 on xG. That included conceding a penalty which was saved by their keeper Oystein Orvreteit.

Vålerenga are a short price favourite to win this match. I do not fully trust them to cover a big handicap after last week’s debacle, but they should be good enough to score at least two goals here. I would expect them to come firing out of the traps and wanting to assert themselves on the game. Jerv might actually get some decent chances on the break, and it would not surprise me to see the away side at least score, which is part of the reason I’d be worried about taking Valerenga on a handicap. Backing the hosts just to net over 1.5 looks like the best bet and the safest play.

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Viking v Bodø/Glimt

These two teams met as recently as Thursday night in the Norwegian Cup semi-final, a match which Bodø/Glimt won 2-1. When these sides face each other, the goals usually flow and recent head to heads have been very high scoring. The last seven competitive meetings have all ended with over 2.5 goals and six of those matches both teams scored. There is no fluke to these stats because both teams love to attack and have a plethora of great attacking options. Viking have caused plenty of problems to most teams in Norway but can’t quite solve the Bodø/Glimt riddle, now losing 6 of their last 7 times they’ve faced Kjetil Knutsen. Viking have always been competitive, but it is very hard to outplay Glimt by playing positive attacking football.

Viking will create chances and probably score at least one goal. In Veton Berisha and Zlatko Tripic, they have two massive weapons that could feature in any Eliteserien side. Viking do have 2 wins out of 3 but lost late last week against Odd. It was an even match and on another day they probably could have won. It will be very hard for them to contain a Glimt side who looked absolutely sensational last week when they hammered Vålerenga 5-1. Whether Viking can learn from the midweek cup loss remains to be seen. At least they are at home for this fixture. Neither side is likely to change their style and there will be wave after wave of attacks.

The obvious bet for this match is to take over 2.5 goals. Nothing suggests anything otherwise. Viking have the highest average xG of any team in the Eliteserien after three rounds and we all know about Bodø/Glimt’s attacking strength. The price is nothing special at 1.57 but really does look like a safe bet. For those who are after bigger odds then over 3.5 is maybe worth looking at, in combination with both teams scoring. It is very hard to see how three goals won’t be scored overall.

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