Famalicão v Estoril Praia

Estoril Praia opened the 2021/22 Primeira Liga season with a 2-1 win against second-tier Nacional in the Taça da Liga but fell to a 1-0 defeat in the following match against Famalicão on August 1 as a ninth-minute goal from Brazilian winger Bruno Rodrigues knocked out Bruno Pinheiro’s side from the competition. 

When Famalicão and Estoril faced off on December 17, things were drastically different. Estoril were fifth and were delivering a similar story to Famlaicão in 2019/20 when another newly-promoted side challenged for European football, whilst Fama was in the relegation play-off spot.

Famalicão took the lead before the break with an own goal from Bernardo Vital, but Rui Fonte evened things up in the 45th minute and Chiquinho added another moments later to give them a lead at HT, but Simon Banza equalized in the second half to secure a 2-2 draw at the Estádio Antonio Coimbra da Mota in Cascais.

It looked set to be the final game for Bruno Pinheiro as Estoril manager with Besiktas linked with an appointment, but whilst Pinheiro ended up staying, Ivo Vieira was sacked following the match.

Estoril will be without Chiquinho, who moved to Wolves in the January transfer window, and André Franco, who created both of their goals in the 2-2 draw in December. Franco and Rosier Lorientz scored in a 2-2 draw to Belenenses-SAD, but both were sent off after a scuffle following Sandro’s equalizer in the 96th minute. They have sealed their status in the top-flight for next season, something that Famalicão still need to take care of. Rui Pedro Silva’s side are four points above the relegation play-off spot with three games left, and I think they should have enough motivation to come out with a victory at home against a dilapidated Estoril side.

It is hard to underestimate just how influential André Franco has been in the final third for Estoril in their return to the top-flight, especially after Chiquinho’s mid-season departure to Wolves. The 23-year-old French midfielder Rosier Lorentz has also been a vital cog in the center of the pitch next to Franco and João Gamboa as of late, whilst Romário Baró, who may have very well replaced Rosier in the line-up, also picked up a sending-off. Famalicão know that they need a result to secure safety, and they know that this, at least on paper, will be an easier fixture than a Belenenses-SAD side that is fighting tooth and nail to stay up or a Braga side that has just given Porto its first league defeat since October 2020 – I’m backing them to keep riding the momentum from their 0-0 draw against Benfica at the Luz and get their first win since February.

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Arouca v Portimonense

Despite falling to a 2-1 defeat to Vizela, Arouca sit one point above the relegation play-off spot with three games left: Portimonense, Braga and Belenenses-SAD. They are a point above Moreirense and Tondela and two points above B-SAD, and they’ll be looking to get a big result against Portimonense on Saturday.

After playing a rotated line-up in a 7-0 drubbing at the Estádio de Dragão, Portimonense manager Paulo Sérgio was showered with criticism and accusations, but he defended himself by saying that he was only prioritizing the upcoming match against Moreirense. In the end, he was proven right; Portimonense came out victorious and sealed their status in the top-flight for next season with a 1-0 win thanks to a goal from Wélinton Junior and a superb performance in goal from Samuel Portugal, two players who were rested against Porto to avoid getting booked and picking up a suspension in the upcoming match. Samuel Portugal has emerged as one of the league’s most underrated goalkeepers since joining the Algarvian club and he will be suspended in the upcoming match – either Payam Niazmand, who made his season debut in a 7-0 loss, or Kosuke Nakamura will slot in between the sticks.

Four of the past five matches between these two sides have seen both teams go on to score, and I’m backing this one to continue the pattern. Arouca have not kept a clean sheet since January, and whilst Portimonense have kept two clean sheets in their past three games, prior to doing so, their last clean sheet was in December. Perhaps no player has played a bigger role in keeping the Algarvian side up in the Primeira than Samuel Portugal, and without the Brazilian goalkeeper, I’m expecting an Arouca side that has scored in four of their last five to find the back of the net. Portimonense have their fair share of attacking options in Wélinton and Shoya Nakajima as well, and against an Arouca team that will be expected to have the majority of possession and push for an opening goal, I think there should be plenty of space for Portimonense to exploit on the counter.

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Marítimo v Benfica

Marítimo began the Vasco Seabra era on November 28 with a 2-0 win over Paços de Ferreira, followed up by a 1-1 draw to Boavista that saw Henrique equalize for Marítimo in the 95th minute, and a 4-1 win against Santa Clara. They would go on to pick up three victories in four matches, the sole exception coming in a 7-1 defeat to Benfica.

Prior to their humiliating defeat at the Estádio da Luz, Marítimo had drawn 1-1 to Sérgio Conceição’s Porto, lost 1-0 to Sporting via a last minute penalty from Pedro Porro, and lost 2-0 to Braga. Since the loss, they have beaten Braga 1-0 via a late goal from Brazilian right back Claudio Winck, lost 2-1 in the Draagão, and drawn 1-1 against Sporting, with their most recent match seeing them storm back from an early two-goal deficit at Santa Clara and take a 2-2 draw in the Azores. They have gone from fighting relegation earlier on in the season to sitting 7th in the table, currently 11 points above the drop, thanks to the mid-season appointment of Vasco Seabra who replaced Spanish manager Julio Velázquez, now at Deportivo Alavés.

Marítimo have been a constant threat against bigger sides this season and I expect another even, high-scoring fixture between these two opponents. Benfica will be looking to bounce back from a 0-0 draw to Famalicão, the first time they were held without a goal in a league match since suffering a 1-0 defeat to Portimonense on October 3. They are eight points behind Sporting and will likely finish third for the second straight season, forcing them to play in the Champions League playoffs in early August, whilst Marítimo – if they finish seventh – will enjoy their best finish since 2018.

I’m expecting both teams to find the back of the net in what should be an entertaining fixture at the Estádio dos Barreiros. Benfica will be without Rafa Silva, who provided a whopping four assists and a goal in their 7-1 thrashing in December, but they will be counting on the return of Everton Cebolinha to link up with Darwin Núñez and Roman Yaremchuk and penetrate a Marítimo side that has kept just one clean sheet in its past five games. While I don’t expect a ‘park-the-bus’ approach from Marítimo in the similar ilk of the Famalicão game, I think Marítimo should have enough attacking weapons to hurt Benfica on the transition and exploit their combination of a high line and an aging defensive pairing in Nicolás Otamendi and Jan Vertonghen.

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Porto v Vizela

After a week that saw them defeat Portimonense by a seven-goal margin and defeat Sporting at home to advance to the Taça de Portugal Final, Porto suffered their first league defeat since October 2020 in a 1-0 loss in Braga – a win or a draw would have seen them break the record of Fabio Capello’s Milan from 1991 to 1993 with a 58-match unbeaten streak. 

Sporting have managed to cut Porto’s lead at the top to just six points again, and with three games left against Vizela, Benfica and Estoril Praia as well as Tondela in the Taça de Portugal Final, Sérgio Conceição’s side still have plenty of work to do in order to end the season with a domestic double.

Vizela are six points clear of the drop after defeating fellow promoted side Arouca on Friday and look set to avoid the fate of their 1984 team – the last and only time the club had competed in the top-flight prior to this season. Alvaro Pacheco’s side will be without Brazilian striker Cassiano, who scored in a 1-1 draw vs. a 10-man Benfica side on March 11, whilst their other fixtures have seen them lose 3-0 to Sporting, lose 1-0 to Benfica, lose 4-1 to Braga, lose 4-0 to Porto, lose 2-0 to Sporting and 0-1 to a 10-man Braga side. They also fell to a 3-1 defeat at home against Porto in the Taça de Portugal, their sole goal coming from Cassiano. I’m backing Porto to bounce back with an emphatic victory at the Dragão in a game that should see midfield linchpin Mateus Uribe return from injury and start alongside Vitinha in the center of the pitch. There’s special motivation for them as well; if Porto beat Vizela and Sporting drop points against Gil Vicente, Porto will be crowning themselves as champions at the Estádio da Luz. Fail to do so, and Porto will be in need of a positive result against Benfica in order to wrap up the title before the final league match against Estoril Praia.

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Belenenses-SAD v Braga

Since suffering a 7-1 home defeat to Braga on January 4, 2020, Belenenenes-SAD have drawn 1-1 to the Arsenalistas, beaten them 2-1, drawn 1-1, and most recently lost 1-0 as Francisco Moura’s goal in the first minute secured a victory for Carlos Carvalhal’s side. They will be looking to pick up their third and final victory of April as they host Braga, who are guaranteed to finish fourth. Belenenses-SAD currently sit bottom of the table – albeit just two points away from safety – and have lost just once since the start of March, a 3-1 defeat to Benfica. They have lost 4-1 twice to Porto and Sporting and 2-0 to Porto and Sporting as well as a 7-0 loss to Benfica, and will be without left back Diogo Calila and captain Abel Camará in their mission to secure three points vs. Braga.

After drawing 0-0 to Estoril following their Europa League elimination to Rangers, Braga responded with a 1-0 victory against Porto thanks to a second-half goal from Ricardo Horta. It appears to be the final weeks at the club for manager Carlos Carvalhal after a successful two-year spell at the club; Belenenses-SAD, in contrast, have had three managers over the course of this season. They are enjoying their best form of the season and have scored in four straight matches, but they’ll be going up against a Braga side that has three clean sheets in their past three matches. I’m expecting a competitive, action-packed, albeit low-scoring match between two sides at opposite ends of the spectrum, and I’m expecting Braga, who, apart from a 2-1 win against Portimonense on March 20 and a 3-2 win against Benfica on April 2, have seen less than two and a half goals scored in each league match since February 20.

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