Haugesund v Sarpsborg
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Sunday 24th July – 5:00PM KO
It was a horrific start to the season for Haugesund as they suffered five consecutive defeats. They have done well to recover and are now in 13th position after 15 games played. They have played more matches than all the teams around them though and a lot of work is needed in the second half of the season if they are to avoid the drop. The good news for Haugesund is that they have only lost 3 of their last 9 games and two of those were vs strong opposition in Bodø/Glimt and Molde. Last week away to Molde they were outplayed but managed to stay in the game and only succumbed 0-1. The performance of goalkeeper Egil Selvik was especially impressive, and he has put in some decent performances recently. Haugesund’s biggest problem is a defence that has conceded a league-high 27 goals. Their average xGA per 90 mins of 1.68 demonstrates that they have a legitimately poor defence. Midfielder Julius Eskesen is suspended but Haugesund actually have a squad in excellent health right now.
Sarpsborg are a very hit-or-miss side with only one draw all season. They have been in mixed form recently but lost 3 of their last 4 matches. This team is usually very good for scoring goals and being involved in over 2.5 matches. They did however lose 0-1 at home to Vålerenga last week and struggled to break down a resolute defence. New manager Stefan Billborn has introduced an entertaining and attacking style which is also high risk. Sarpsborg have the fourth worst average xG per 90 mins (1.78) out of any team in the league and have conceded the most goals out of any side in the current top ten. There are some worrying squad problems that might affect them negatively here. Midfielder Jonathan Lindseth looks set to move to CSKA Sofia before the end of the week, whilst top scorer Mikkel Maigaard is doubtful with injury. Winger Tobias Heintz, who has scored 5 goals and supplied 4 assists is another doubt. Another midfield playmaker Anton Saletros has been linked with a move away from the club. I just sense that this squad might be unsettled for various reasons which might be a good reason to oppose them here.
Haugesund are not the most trustworthy side due to their poor defence, but this could be a favourable situation for the team from western Norway. They have only lost 1 of their last 5 home games and that was vs Bodø/Glimt. With Sarpsborg being potentially short-handed and some players distracted then Haugesund on a DNB handicap at 1.85 definitely represents some value. I think there is a good chance of them winning this match or at worst obtaining a draw.
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Prediction: Haugesund DNB, 1.85 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Sandefjord v Molde
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Sunday 24th July – 5:00PM KO
No team has been involved in more over 2.5 goal matches than Sandefjord this season. 11 of their 12 Eliteserien fixtures have contained at least three goals and they also have more over 3.5 games than any other team. The main reason for this is an appalling defence which has an average xG per 90 mins of 1.87, the second worst metric of any side in the division. Sandefjord have scored 23 goals at the other end but massively overachieved in this department considering their overall xG is just 15.86. They have a knack of scoring unlikely goals and hitting teams on the counter-attack. We must praise Sandefjord though because they have one of the poorest squads in the league and most pundits expected them to be struggling in the bottom two positions right now. That they are in 11th place with some games in hand, which must be considered impressive for everyone involved. They have a poor home record and have failed to win any of their five fixtures at the Sandefjord Arena.
Molde are unbeaten in ten consecutive Eliteserien matches. They are joint top of the Eliteserien table with Lillestrøm on 33 points. Erling Moe’s team are full of goals and netted 29 times this season, the second most of any team. Their xG of 28.95 totally backs them up as being a legitimate attacking threat. They have been missing some chances recently with striker David Datro Fofana the guiltiest. He is a very inconsistent player and capable of anything on the day. Sometimes he can be infuriating due to poor finishing or final decision-making. Molde are the only team in the Eliteserien yet to suffer defeat away from home and it would be a shock if they lost here.
Over 2.5 goals are the obvious best bet here. The price is only 1.45 but this really looks to have a great chance of landing. Sandefjord matches just have that knack of containing goals. They do not defend well but in Mohamed Ofkir and Alexander Ruud Tveter they have some in-form players who have had great campaigns. Molde are in the middle of a European qualifying run so might not be so focused defensively. I think there is a good chance that both teams score, but in case Molde really dominates the contest then over 2.5 goals will cover a 0-3 or bigger away victory.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.47 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Vålerenga v Viking
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Sunday 24th July – 5:00PM KO
It looked like Vålerenga manager Dag Eilev Fagermo was going to lose his job, but he has given himself some breathing space by winning the last two matches 3-0 vs Kristiansund and 1-0 vs Sarpsborg. Fagermo used all of his managerial and tactical experience last week as VIF produced a brilliant performance to shut out the highest-scoring team in the Eliteserien. They basically limited Sarpsborg to long-range shots or low xG opportunities. It was the sort of performance we expected to see more often from Vålerenga in the last two seasons and they were much more defensively solid than previously seen this campaign. Perhaps that is the new blueprint for Fagermo, and he will make his side difficult to penetrate. Left-back Leonard Zuta is doubtful for this match with a head injury but should probably feature. Centre back Ivan Nasberg came off after 35 mins last week and is 50/50 to be fit with a thigh injury. Vålerenga have a mixed home record with three wins, a draw and two defeats.
Viking had a poor run and went six games without a win but have bounced back with consecutive victories vs Lillestrøm 1-0 and Kristiansund 2-1. On both occasions they scored very late goals to secure the win. It is of course positive that they found a way to win but they can’t keep relying on late goals. Viking were a bit disappointing overall vs rock bottom Kristiansund last week and have not been at their best for some time. It has not helped them that key attacker Zlatko Tripic has either been injured or suspended. He has now served his bans but had to go off injured in the Conference League on Thursday night so is doubtful here. Top scorer Veton Berisha has also been injured and is close to a move away from the club, most likely to Swedish club Hammarby. It will be a major blow that they lose such a crucial member of their squad. At the back, Giovanni Stensness has missed five consecutive games with injury, and they’ve only kept one clean sheet during this run. A big challenge for Viking will be playing this match just three days after a trip to Sparta Prague in the Europa Conference League. They heroically held out for a 0-0 in the first leg but came under severe pressure. A legitimate question must be asked what they will have left in the tank here. They will be both mentally and physically fatigued and it must be factored in.
These two teams are quite evenly matched. A few weeks ago, this game probably would have been a strong contender for over 2.5 goals due to both teams high on xG numbers. However, Viking just don’t seem as reliable in front of goal anymore and Vålerenga have suddenly tightened up their defence. This feels like a good chance for the home team to be facing Viking. Vålerenga seem to have their mojo and confidence back and have had a full week to prepare for this game. Viking have endured a tricky week travelling to Prague and I am not convinced they are actually playing that well recently. Vålerenga on a DNB makes sense as a good solid bet for this match. They should at worst obtain a draw from the fixture.
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Prediction: Vålerenga DNB , 1.57 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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