The eighth round of Championship fixtures concludes on Monday evening as Sunderland travel to the Riverside in the Tees-Wear derby – the first in four years. Middlesbrough have been poor so far and find themselves in the relegation zone with just one win all season. Sunderland’s return to the Championship has been solid but has been hampered with Alex Neil moving to Stoke. This has meant that experienced manager Tony Mowbray has arrived at the Stadium of Light and takes charge of his second game on Monday. A win would see the Black Cats move into the playoffs.
Tipped by many to go up at the start of the season, defensively, Middlesbrough have been a shambles. Other than Hull, they have conceded the most goals of any team and are yet to keep a clean sheet in their seven games so far. They come into this one on the back of a 2-1 loss at Watford, where they conceded in the 93rd minute. They will be looking to right the wrongs of Wednesday night and will home to back up their win here against Swansea last weekend with 3 points. Chris Wilder will be reminding his team that it is still early in the season, and a win here would only see them four points from the top 6 with 38 games left to play.
Sunderland fans will be gutted to have lost the man who guided them to promotion last season – Alex Neil. Many fans have been left confused and gutted at his decision to move to Stoke who have not started the season well, but are generally happy with the appointment of Tony Mowbray, who started impressively in midweek. A 3-0 win against Rotherham – who have only conceded three other goals all season – is one way of making his mark, and he will be hoping for a similar result here. Sunderland have been solid away from home with six points from their three games so far, however, have not won here in 90 minutes since 2005.
Middlesbrough v Sunderland Bet Builder Tips
Both Teams to Score
As mentioned earlier, Middlesbrough have been terrible at the back. Their three home games have seen nine goals, and both teams to score has landed in all three games. The underlying data suggests that this is not a surprise, Middlesbrough have amassed 4.7 xG in these three games, and yet have conceded 3.24 xG in this time. This suggests that goals should be on the cards again at the Riverside.
Sunderland have only conceded eight goals in their seven games but have conceded in two of their three away games. The only game where they did not concede away from home was at Stoke, which was Martin O’Neill’s last game for the club. They were also perhaps fortunate in this game because they conceded 1.09 xG. Across their three away games, they have conceded 5.24 xG. Going forward, they amassed 2.50 xG at Bristol City and Stoke, and whilst they only managed 0.23 xG against Sheffield United, they had 10 men for much of the game and still managed to score.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score
Ross Stewart to Score or Assist
Ross Stewart has been Sunderland’s main man so far this season. He has eight goal contributions in their seven games so far and has scored in four different games. Four of his goal contributions have come away from home and he has managed 26 shots already – almost four per game.
Whilst there has only been one game in the Tony Mowbray era, there is little evidence to suggest that they should be less attacking, or Stewart will have less involvement in the game. When hosting Rotherham, he was involved in all three goals with one assist and two goals. He was top scorer in league one last year, and the addition of Ellis Simms seems to have only made him a better player so far. He was also on penalties for Sunderland last year and should be this one too.
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Prediction: Ross Stewart to Score or Assist
Ellis Simms to have 2+ Shots
Ellis Simms seems to have given Ross Stewart more freedom as Sunderland have had another avenue to attack with. This is his first proper crack at English football having been fairly successful at Hearts last season and so far, he has managed three goals. He has plenty of shots and has hit 17 in just 5.2 90 minutes. He has managed to have three shots in each of his games this season, with the exception of Sheffield United where he was taken off because they only had 10 men.
Middlesbrough have been open at the back and have allowed plenty of shots so far. In their last game at Watford, each of Sarr and Pedro managed three shots and this has been a theme across their season. Piroe managed three shots last time at the Riverside for Swansea, and both of Stoke’s strikers had two shots each when they matched up. Simms has consistently had a high number of shots, averaging 3.25 shots per 90 this season and 3.45 shots in Scotland last season. Given these figures and Middlesbrough’s open defence, it is a fair assumption that Simms should be afforded some opportunities on Monday night.
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Prediction: Ellis Simms to have 2+ Shots
Over 3.5 Cards
Both of these teams rank amongst the highest in the league for card averages. Middlesbrough have seen an average of 5.14 cards shown per game so far this season, and their number of cards reads like this: 4, 5, 6, 3, 5, 9, 6. This line would have landed in six of their seven games and in each of Middlesbrough’s three games at the Riverside so far this season.
Sunderland have seen even more cards shown per game with an average of 5.29 so far this season. Broken down individually, every game both home and away has had at least four cards, and Sunderland have averaged 3.14 cards for each game. Luke O’Nien has managed four yellow cards in just four starts and six appearances and is probably the main suspect for a booking for the visitors. Other likely candidates are midfielders Jack Clarke and Corry Evans, who have three apiece already this season.
The referee for this game is Darren Bond who averages 3.48 yellow cards a game across his career and has given four or more cards in three of his five games in the Championship this season. He has the sixth highest average for number of cards of all referees who have officiated 5 or more games in the Championship so far this season. Given that this is a derby, both clubs’ averages and Bond’s fairly high card count, cards can surely be expected.
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Prediction: Over 3.5 Cards
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Predicted Line-ups
Middlesbrough predicted XI (3-5-2) : Roberts; Dijksteel, Fry, Clarke; Jones, Mowatt, McNair, Crooks, Giles; Forss, Muniz
Sunderland predicted XI (3-4-3) : Patterson; O’Nien, Batth, Cirkin; Gooch, Neil, Evans, Clarke; Pritchard; Stewart, Simms
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Middlesbrough v Sunderland in the Championship?
📅 When is Middlesbrough v Sunderland? / Monday, 5th September 2022, 20:00
🏟 Where is Middlesbrough v Sunderland? / Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough)
📺 What TV channel is Middlesbrough v Sunderland on? / Sky Sports Main Event
🟨 …And who is the referee for Middlesbrough v Sunderland? / D. Bond 🏴
