While the draw against Manchester City will have bought Steven Gerrard some time as Aston Villa manager, a bad result here will only bring him even closer to losing his job. Although the Aston Villa squad showed fight against Manchester City, they nicked a draw in a match where they were dominated and Gerrard will need to find a real improvement in his team’s performance to get a result here. With time off due to last weekend’s postponed fixtures they will have had time to work on their game and will show up to a Villa Park that will roar them on in hope of a win.
Southampton have started the season well, they have 7 points from 6 matches despite already having played Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester United. They have already caught the eye with their impressive football and they are an entertaining team. Summer signing Sekou Mara is yet to work his way into the starting eleven due to Che Adams’ form however he will continue to be a threat off the bench. It will also be interesting to see how Southampton perform without Romeo Lavia, the young talent came off injured against Chelsea and will not be available for this match.
Aston Villa v Southampton Bet Builder Tips
Southampton Double Chance
Southampton have started the season well, beating Leicester and Chelsea as well as drawing with Leeds. Although they were poor in their opening match against Spurs, they won on xG in both their other losses so were unlucky in these matches. Aston Villa on the other hand have been poor, they have won just one match and in their draw against Manchester City, they only created 0.2 xG. Aston Villa have really struggled to dominate any opponents this year, all their matches this season have seen very tight matches that deserve draws or matches where Villa have been heavily dominated.
Aston Villa have also struggled against teams that are strong in possession, with Manchester City, Arsenal and Crystal Palace all comfortably beating Aston Villa on xG. Southampton are very strong in possession and have built a team that are technically very strong with the ball and this will give them the advantage. Southampton are a strong team and should be good enough to walk away with a win in this match, however the double chance selection will give a buffer in case the Villa Park atmosphere sees Aston Villa get another draw.
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Prediction: Southampton Double Chance
Kyle Walker-Peters to have 1+ Shot
Aston Villa sit deep defensively and rely on their front three to press when the opposition has possession and will often man mark defensively. This sees them struggle when opposition players run from deep as they can find themselves in space. One of Southampton’s most attacking players this season has been Kyle Walker-Peters, the right back has averaged 1.22 shots/90 this season and averaged 0.92 shots/90 last season. His underlapping runs will cause plenty of issues for a Villa defence that tend to stick tight to individual players, if Walker-Peters makes a run in behind from deep he will most likely receive the ball in plenty of space to get a shot away. Manchester City created 72% of their xG against Aston Villa from attacks down the right flank and this weakness for Aston Villa will also play into Walker-Peters’ hands. Due to all these reasons, I am backing Kyle Walker-Peters to have a shot in this match.
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Prediction: Kyle Walker-Peters to have 1+ Shot
Adam Armstrong to have 1+ Shot on Target
Aston Villa are set up so that their defenders will follow attackers if they drop deep to receive the ball, while this can nullify the threat of the opposition’s number 9, it leaves gaps in the defence for other attackers to exploit. Che Adams does like to come deep for the ball and this will often see a Villa defender follow him which plays into Adam Armstrong’s hands perfectly. Armstrong plays on the left but will come inside to a narrower position when Saints attack. Armstrong is a pacy player that will be able to exploit this space in behind and get shooting chances. Armstrong has had 0.7 shots on target per 90 so far this season and averaged 0.89 shots on target per 90 last season. I think Armstrong can be a key player for Southampton this match so I am backing him to have a shot on target.
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Prediction: Adam Armstrong to have 1+ Shot on Target
Boubacar Kamara to be Shown a Card
Boubacar Kamara was signed in the summer from Marseille and the 22 year old has quickly become a key player for Aston Villa. Kamara plays the important midfield role of stopping counter attacks, which has already seen him commit lots of fouls. With 19 fouls in his first 6 matches he is the highest fouler in the league, only Scott McTominay has committed as many and 6 more than the player with the third most fouls. When counter-attacking, Southampton are good at moving the ball forward quickly and Kamara will be forced into these tactical fouls which will likely see him booked. Che Adams is one of Southampton’s most fouled players this season and Kamara will be up against him when Southampton are countering and Adams drops deep to bring in other runners. Kamara looks to be Villa’s most likely player to be booked so I am backing him to get a booking in this match.
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Prediction: Boubacar Kamara to be Shown a Card
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Predicted Line-ups
Aston Villa predicted XI (4-3-3) : Martinez; Young, Konsa, Mings, Digne; Luiz, Kamara, McGinn; Bailey, Watkins, Ramsey
Southampton predicted XI (4-2-3-1) : Bazunu; Walker-Peters, Bella-Kotchap, Salisu, Perraud; Ward-Prowse, Maitland-Niles; Elyounoussi, Aribo, Djenepo; Adams
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How to watch Aston Villa v Southampton in the Premier League?
📅 When is Aston Villa v Southampton? / Friday, 16th September 2022, 8:00PM
🏟 Where is Aston Villa v Southampton? / Villa Park (Birmingham)
📺 What TV channel is Aston Villa v Southampton on? / Sky Sports Main Event
🟨 …And who is the referee for Aston Villa v Southampton? / T. Harrington 🏴
