Two sides struggling for form meet in what is fast becoming a must-win fixture for both. Whilst Nottingham Forest have reaffirmed their belief in Steve Cooper this week, handing him a new contract running through until 2025, Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa future still looks to be up in the air.
The unexpected move from Forest owner Evangelos Marianakis has been welcomed by fans but despite keeping the man they want for the long-term, you would still be hard pressed to find a fan of the club who genuinely believes they can avoid the drop this season.
The mood at Villa is no better, and Steven Gerrard seems constantly only a couple of poor results away from the brink. He has been spiky in press conferences and fans seem to be becoming disillusioned with him, with some lamenting having sacked Dean Smith in the first place. The Villains really must win this game, as there are no easier places to go in the Premier League right now than the City Ground.
Forest disappointed in their last game, a 4-0 thrashing by Leicester, although again demonstrating if they were less wasteful, they might make a fist of survival this season. They have some talent in that squad, and whilst it has not yet gelled, with the manager now not going anywhere for the foreseeable future, perhaps Cooper can begin to turn things around. Villa are unbeaten in 3, and though they have not been impressive at all in these games, a result for Forest would still be enormous for the group and the fans, proving to the rest of the league that they won’t go down without a fight, whereas another loss could be devastating for their season.
I do expect Villa will win this game; however, I can envision a competitive game and there is nothing to suggest Villa will not slip up and drop points again on the road.
Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa Bet Builder Tips
Ollie Watkins to have 1+ Shot on Target
Ollie Watkins has not been prolific this season, but he has been taking plenty of shots. His 1.92 shots per 90 is the second-most in the Villa squad, and his accuracy cannot be faulted, with 1.1 shots on target per 90 giving him an overall shot accuracy of 57%. Watkins should get plenty of chances here, especially if like Leicester last Monday Villa can nick an early lead and force Forest to push up the field.
Personally, I will take Watkins 1 Shot on Target at 1.53, as something I am very confident will occur. 2 or more shots is priced ridiculously high at 3.50, and is also very likely to happen, so if you are feeling confident about Watkins’ chances in this game, feel free to bump it up one level higher.
Forest concede plenty of shots and chances, with their 14.9xG conceded the third worst in the league, and a slow defensive line which will struggle to live with Watkins’ pace if he is given a chance to run. One or more shots on target looks to be almost guaranteed here.
🎯
Prediction: Ollie Watkins to have 1+ Shot on Target
Aston Villa to have 5+ Shots on Target
As mentioned above, Forest concede plenty of chances, and though Villa are far from prolific, they have taken around 10 shots per game this season, something which should be much higher in a game where they are certainly favourites.
The hosts themselves have allowed an average of 6.1 shots on target per 90 minutes this season, with 16.8 shots conceded by Forest per game this season. The underlying numbers suggest Villa will have more shots than usual, and the opportunity to create better chances also thanks to the weakness of the Forest backline when compared to other Premier League defences.
Evens are a ridiculous price when considering that this has landed in 6 of Forest’s 9 games this season, the exceptions being West Ham who were exceptionally unlucky not to win their game against Forest and missed a number of clear-cut chances, Spurs who are always happy to sit back and invite pressure, and the 3-2 comeback win from Bournemouth who essentially only turned up for the second half after being 2-0 down at the break.
I expect Villa to be on the front foot and this to land fairly comfortably if they play to their capabilities.
🎯
Prediction: Aston Villa to have 5+ Shots on Target
John McGinn to be Shown a Card
The referee Anthony Taylor is not especially eager to reach for his pocket, but he still averages three yellows per 90, which even though it is less than most Premier League referees is still enough for a card selection to hold some value.
My pick is John McGinn, with the Scottish midfielder having picked up two bookings already this season, and the man who tops both the fouls committed and fouls drawn chart for Villa this season. He averages over 2 fouls committed and drawn per 90 minutes (2.05 and 2.19 respectively), which is to be expected with his combative playstyle and willingness to get stuck in at both ends of the pitch.
His counterparts in the Nottingham Forest midfield are Lewis O’Brien and Ryan Yates, both of whom have the highest fouls drawn numbers in the Forest squad, with the exception of Emmanuel Dennis who has played only around 100 minutes this season. With both players likely to be in McGinn’s space and adept at holding the ball and drawing the contact to relieve pressure on the defence, fouls could quickly accumulate against the Scot, leading to a caution.
Fellow midfielder Jacob Ramsay is also a solid option for a card for much the same reason as McGinn, but McGinn is the less likely of the two to be withdrawn. Ramsay has made way early in both of Villa’s last two Premier League games, which is why I have selected McGinn for this Bet Builder.
🟨
Prediction: John McGinn to be Shown a Card
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.
Back the 17/2 Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa Bet Builder below ⬇️
🧾
Load the bet slip @ 8.59 at Paddy Power
Haven’t got a Paddy Power account? You’re in luck…
Sign up to Paddy Power and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £30 on the 17/2 Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa Bet Builder. Here are the two possible outcomes:
✅
You win £257 cash if it wins
🔄
Or you get your £30 stake back as cash
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets *
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa in the Premier League?
📅 When is Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa? / Monday, 10th October 2022, 20:00
🏟 Where is Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa? / The City Ground (Nottingham)
📺 What TV channel is Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa on? / Sky Sports Main Event 🟨 …And who is the referee for Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa? / A.Taylor 🏴
