Shrewsbury Town v Bolton Wanderers
Shrewsbury are arguably the most confusing side in League One this season. Whilst Steve Cotterill’s team currently sit in a respectable 13th place in the table, vastly inconsistent and unconvincing performances have been present across the season.
A worrying statistic for Shrewsbury is the lack of goals from forward players. A Shrewsbury striker hasn’t scored a goal since the 24th September, when both Christian Saydee and Ryan Bowman netted during a 2-1 win over Burton Albion.
Cotterill has a quartet of strikers in Saydee, Bowman, Rekeil Pyke and Rob Street, who will usually all feature at some point across a 90 minute game, but a two month barren spell for all four of them is a concern.
What has saved the Shrews is the form and understanding between the ex-Coventry pair of Jordan Shipley and Tom Bayliss. Shipley operates on the left of a midfield five and Bayliss sits in an attacking midfield role, the pair often combining to score or create opportunities that Matthew Pennington, Elliott Bennett, or left-back-turned-midfielder Luke Leahy have converted.
Shipley and Bayliss are ever present in a consistent-looking 3-5-2 for Shrewsbury and becoming more and more integral as the weeks progress.
Giving up is something that doesn’t currently exist in Bolton Wanderers’ book. In their last six league games alone, Bolton have score late goals to complete comeback wins over Accrington Stanley, Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town. A 94th minute goal last weekend in turn rescued a point after falling behind very early on to Bristol Rovers.
Bolton’s tendency to fall behind comes from a vulnerability to set pieces and direct football, but Ian Evatt is certainly able to turn games on his head. Kieran Sadlier regularly contributes from the bench in wide and attacking midfield areas, Oladapo Afolayan operates at his best in advanced areas, Liverpool loanee Conor Bradley can dominate the right flank, fellow Liverpool loanee Owen Beck recently established himself as the start on the opposite flank.
The quartet of Jón Daði Böðvarsson, Dion Charles, Amadou Bakayoko and Elias Kachunga are rotated around across the season, forming several different combinations of a front two partnership. If all four are fit, all four will feature, and quite often it is the fresher, new forward faces who get crucial goals to give Bolton crucial comeback points.
Two teams who look to utilise a quartet of striker, but have contrasting output from them. Shrewsbury look to their influential midfield pair for creativity and goals, as well as set piece threat that the back three of Tom Flanagan, Chey Dunkley and Matthew Pennington can provide. That threat could well cause problems for Bolton early on, but you can feel certain that Evatt will respond with an attack-heavy set-up that at the very least comes close to finding a response. One to keep an eye on right up to the final whistle.
Burton Albion v Derby County
Derby County head to Burton Albion on Saturday at a juicy odds against price, due to the improvement the Brewers have made since Dino Maamria stepped up to the top job at the Pirelli Stadium.
The Rams are flying under the radar in the scale of their turnaround under Paul Warne, and the market may be taking some time to catch up on them being the fourth best team in League One, only trailing the standout trio at the top end in Plymouth Argyle, Ipswich Town and Sheffield Wednesday.
Albion should fancy their chances of staying up given the positive strides they have made in the last few months, but they are still five points from safety and have not done enough to dissuade me from Derby’s price.
The Rams have lost just once away from home in the league under Warne and have conceded one goal or less in eight of their last ten.
The Brewers have conceded 12 goals in their last five league outings, while the Rams have taken credit from goalless draws with Portsmouth and Sheffield Wednesday.
Forest Green Rovers v Cheltenham Town
Forest Green Rovers welcome Cheltenham Town to New Lawn in what many are calling El Glosico on Saturday afternoon, a Gloucestershire derby between the two clubs in League One for the very first time.
The Robins have performed very well so far this season to build an eight-point cushion on the relegation zone, and FGR, heading into the fixture, with defensive resilience being one of their key strengths. However, despite that achievement the supporters are not completely on board with Wade Elliott as manager, who replaced Michael Duff in the hotseat in the summer, having previously been on the coaching staff at the club.
Cheltenham will be happy to allow FGR to have the lion’s share of possession, with confidence in their game plan and ability in transition, something that came up trumps in a 1-0 win at Charlton Athletic last weekend.
Corey O’Keeffe will miss out through suspension for the hosts, the former Rochdale right back has been a key creative threat for Ian Burchnall’s side this season, and with that in mind, there could be some value in getting the visitors onside as outsiders.
Bristol Rovers v Port Vale
Darrell Clarke deserves enormous credit for the job that he is carrying out at Port Vale, making a mockery of any relegation fears and having Vale just two points off the play-offs as we near the season’s halfway stage.
Clarke returning to Bristol Rovers may add some spice to the occasion, and welcoming James Wilson back into their side in recent weeks has increased Vale’s attacking threat significantly.
The visitors have scored in eight of their last nine, hit the headlines with a 2-0 win at Plymouth Argyle last weekend and will be confident of imposing themselves against Joey Barton’s Rovers.
The hosts have scored in all of their last ten matches in League One, and also look set to comfortably consolidate in the third tier. Rovers’ style of play opens them up to being one of the most exciting teams to follow in the third tier, and given Vale’s new-found attacking potency, it would be no surprise to see a goal-laden game play out.
Barton will want to respond to all of the credit that Clarke is getting in the lead-up to this game, and prove why he is the man to take Rovers to new heights.
Exeter City v Sheffield Wednesday
There could also be fireworks in Devon this weekend as Exeter City take on Sheffield Wednesday. Gary Caldwell’s men will not show the Owls anywhere near as much respect as a newly promoted side traditionally would, potentially leading the game towards an overs angle.
The Grecians have beaten Wycombe Wanderers, Barnsley, Peterborough United and other sides who would have had greater pre-season expectations than their own, but Wednesday are another level up and should justify an odds-on price at St James Park.
Darren Moore’s men passed up the opportunity to climb into the automatic promotion places in a goalless draw at Derby County last time out, but with Plymouth Argyle stuttering there will be no lack of motivation in this long away trip.
The Grecians have only kept one clean sheet in their last 11 outings and have been defeated by a two-goal margin by both Plymouth Argyle and Ipswich Town in the last couple of months. Wednesday are capable of similar and with the likes of Michael Smith and Mallik Wilks finding their feet at the club, City’s leaky backline could be exposed.
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