Altrincham v Woking
This tipster suggested Bromley’s odds to earn a result away at Altrincham were too high in midweek and I’m feeling similar about Woking coming into this weekend.
While Woking are favourites for this one, there isn’t much difference between the two sides in terms of odds. I can understand why to a point. Altrincham come into this game having won seven and drawn three of their 16 home matches, a decent return. However, their six home defeats have all come in the seven matches played against top half opposition at the J Davidson Stadium.
They have lost all five matches played against the top eight at home. Their overall record against top half sides is abysmal, winning one and drawing four of 16 matches. They come into this game having lost each of their last four, including three home matches. It’s unhelpful to Phil Parkinson that his side are currently undergoing huge personnel changes having lost their vice-captain and five of their forward options, replaced by a vast number of loanees.
Their opposition this weekend are Woking, the side currently sitting third in the National League table and coming into this fixture having ended Wrexham’s perfect home record on Tuesday. Darren Sarll’s side have won 11 of their last 18 league matches, losing just two. They have won 16 of their 26 league matches against sides outside of the top five, losing just four.
They have won ten of their 16 league matches against sides in the bottom half, losing three, and have won five of their seven away matches against the same opposition, losing two. Digging deeper, those two defeats were against sides that like to soak up pressure and defend their box, something Altrincham won’t do with their expansive style.
Scunthorpe United v Dagenham & Redbridge
Having come out second best against a ruthless Barnet side last time out, I’m going to back an invigorated Scunthorpe United side to earn a result against play-off chasing Dagenham and Redbridge.
New chairman David Hilton has employed Jimmy Dean as manager and the ex-Peterborough Sports boss hasn’t wasted time in making big changes, signing nine players in a bid to give his new club a chance of survival.
Dean has had a couple of weeks on the training field since that aforementioned loss, shaping his new-look squad into his image. Furthermore, Michael Nelson has remained at the club, the man who oversaw a brief turnaround in form before the takeover, and there will be a feel-good factor in the stands that will buoy the players on at Glanford Park this weekend.
They take on a Dagenham and Redbridge side in a good place as far as the league table is concerned but who continue to self-destruct whenever there is a chance of cementing their place in the top seven. Daryl McMahon’s frustrations have clearly risen, giving two interviews during which he has questioned the character of his players in the last couple of weeks and fans aren’t happy with what they are seeing.
Notably, the Daggers have played six away matches against sides in the bottom ten and lost four, drawing one other. The only side they have beaten is basement club Maidstone United a couple of weeks before Hakan Hayrettin was sacked.
Solihull Moors v Chesterfield
A game between two sides looking to find some consistent form having seen their promotion chances dented during differing periods of times.
Solihull Moors have endured a terrible run, losing ten of their last 14 league matches and dropping from fourth into mid-table as a result. Defensive issues continue to blight them, losing new signing David Davis and having only one centre-half available recently.
Teenager Jevon Mills has been drafted in on a short-term loan while Alex Gudger, who returned to the squad in midweek, returns from yet another injury, hardly an immediate resolution to their problems. They have kept one clean sheet in 14 matches but have at least found their goalscoring touch again, scoring in their last three and six of their last seven.
Chesterfield were on the coattails of Wrexham and Notts County before four defeats on the spin left saw them fall away. Instead, they are now in a battle for third place and a draw at Aldershot Town in midweek didn’t help matters. While they remain one of the best attacking outfits in the league, their defensive issues are shining again, conceding ten goals in their last five matches.
These two sides have regularly been involved in game where both sides have scored, Chesterfield seeing 69% of their league matches and 71% of their home matches finish BTTS – Yes and Solihull Moors seeing 67% of their home matches finish BTTS – Yes.
And while attacks for both sides have been rotated amid a busy schedule, the defences may be jelly-legged with the hosts about to embark on their sixth match in three weeks and the visitors about to play their fifth in two and a half weeks.
Wealdstone v York City
A selection based on situation as much as form.
York City have been a shambles in recent weeks, manager and fan favourite John Askey sacked after a public dispute with chairman Glen Henderson, who appointed novice manager David Webb in his place.
Just over two months and four consecutive defeats later, Webb was sacked and Henderson has confirmed he is in talks to sell his shares to the Trust, who own the rest of the football club. Interim Michael Morton went back to basics during their 2-0 FA Trophy win at Southend United last weekend and the feel-good factor at the club is far better than it was a couple of weeks ago.
It leaves them with a far better chance of victory against a Wealdstone side that have been one of the division’s surprise packages this season, currently sitting in the top half of the table and having lost three and won six of their last 13 matches.
However, their performances haven’t been great recently and they are giving up 0.71xG more than they are creating over their last five matches. Their last three home matches have seen them concede 64 shots. Notably, they also come into this game without their chief creator, Max Kretzschmar.
Oxford City v Worthing
In terms of form, Oxford certainly go into this game as the favourable team with Worthing losing their last two games in a row. However, they went 7 games unbeaten before this thus showing it may not be in anyone’s best interests to base this one on form.
What can be seen as a pattern in both teams results is goals – especially Worthing. The away side have seen 18 goals in their last 4 games. Admittedly, they kept two clean sheets in them four games however both were against ten men – Oxford should certainly be getting on the scoresheet here as the favourites to win the game.
Oxford head into this one unbeaten in 7 games, with both teams scoring in 9 of their last 10 games. Whilst they should be winning here, I think they will certainly struggle to keep a clean sheet against a side that pretty much matches them on paper. Both teams have also seen first half goals in their last four respective games – meaning this one could be wrapped up quickly.
On top of this, both teams will definitely want all three points here. Oxford have the home advantage and an edge in momentum, although Worthing only sit three points behind them with a game in hand.
A win for either team here would be huge – meaning once a goal hits the back of the net the game should open up nicely for both teams to score.
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