The decision makers at Hull City must be pleased with their work in appointing Liam Rosenior to take the place of Shota Arveladze back in November.

At the time of the change Hull were beginning to look somewhat doomed. The Georgian playing legend may have known where the back of the net was as a player but his management seemed to produce the opposite effect. Though Rosenior hasn’t been able to make the Tigers a prolific outfit he has managed to tighten the defence and introduce a structure that gives Hull a fair chance in almost every game.

That is one of the reasons that makes finding the result of this match a very tricky endeavour. Hull are unbeaten in seven at home, but haven’t won a Championship match in four, including a couple of chastening away defeats. It is this loss of momentum and perhaps an indication that teams have gotten to grips with Rosenior and his lack of forward options that gives me doubts in backing them in this match.

West Brom’s recent away record is poor though. 3 defeats on the bounce for the Boing Boing Baggies means that confidence in them ahead of the match is a bit shaky as well. However, a thoroughly competent display against the league’s best team in Middlesbrough last time out does restore some faith, and if Daryl Dike starts again in the centre forward position then he would provide the biggest goal threat on the pitch.

With the likes of Jed Wallace and John Swift on hand to supply the bullets, Dike, providing he is now fully fit and match sharp, should be able to fire away and, hopefully for him, find some consistency.

In our Bet Builder we will start by leaning towards West Brom in the result market, but keeping the draw onside as a lot of Hull home matches are low xG, tight affairs.

As just mentioned, looking at the performance data, Hull tend to keep most their home matches in the fine margins. Seven of their last 10 home matches have seen under 2.5 goals, with the others only just over that line. The xG data from those matches is actually even more emphatic towards the unders with NONE of the same ten matches going over 2.5 xG.

A lot of this is as a result of the tactics employed by Rosenior. When he was at Derby under Wayne Rooney, Rosenior was responsible for a lot of the tactical work in that partnership, and there are a lot of similarities between that Derby County side and this Hull City one.

They enjoy keeping possession, they have the fifth highest home possession percentage in the division, but this is used as a measure of control and a defensive tactic as much as an attacking tool. The lack of sharp tools in attack has been a season long concern was only Oscar Estupinan looking anywhere near prolific in open play, most of their recruitment last summer hasn’t really worked.

West Brom’s away games have certainly seen more goal action, but I feel like the more likely pattern of the match will be Hull to control a fair share of the possession and West Brom being more direct and dangerous but having to be efficient with their chances. I do not see a load of goals here.

However, Daryl Dike did manage to fire off 5 shots in the match against Middlesbrough last week. As already mentioned above, he has one of the best supply lines in the division with Jed Wallace and John Swift in behind him, as well as an excellent deeper midfielder in Okay Yokuslu.

Dike’s physical presence also means that he is a potential target from set pieces as well, though the central defenders are obvious alternatives in those scenarios.

In West Brom’s last away game at Watford Dike didn’t start the match, Brandon Thomas-Asante was the leader of the attack and he managed to get 3 shots away in 62 minutes, in a more difficult match.

Dike averages almost exactly 3.5 shots per 90 minutes this season in the Championship, and most of that time will include when he hasn’t been firing on all cylinders in terms of match fitness. If WBA can replicate anywhere near the structure and efficiency of attack that they displayed against Middlesbrough then Dike will certainly get shots away.

The referee for tonight’s match is James Linington. This referee is usually fairly happy to dish the cards out, averaging 3.95 yellows this season.

Previous fixtures between these two tend to fairly card heavy too, never going below 3 cards given out in the last six fixtures between West Brom and Hull.

West Brom do have one of the lowest disciplinary records in the division, but of late they have picked up an above average number of cards. Also, they don’t have their main yellow card culprits near the 10 yellow card mark, which is very important at this stage of the season with the deadline for a two match ban for 10 yellows coming up very soon. Jayson Molumby is on 8, Darnell Furlong on 6, with Dara O’Shea on 5, all three of these are likely to play.

Hull are in a similar position. Generally a more carded team than West Brom, but they spread their cards around a lot. The worst Tigers for cards are Jacob Greaves and Regan Slater, both of whom are on 7 yellows, plenty of head room for more cards before the deadline.

The final addition to the bet builder is one for a foul to be made. Grady Diangana is likely to start on the left side of the attack for West Brom and as a result of his style of play, a heavy dribbler with great poise and balance, he is by far the most fouled player in the West Brom starting lineup.

In direct opposition to him in this match is likely to be Cyrus Christie. Christie is actually one of Hull’s best attacking outlets down the right, but is going to tested defensively tonight, which should be fine for him, but it is not his ideal situation.

Christie is very high on the list of Hull’s most frequent foulers, indeed, using a ten-match sample he is the top fouler in the lineup.

The combination of these two factors mean that I find it exceptionally likely that Christie will find himself committing a foul tonight and his price for just one foul is big enough to be included in this bet builder.