KTP v KuPS
Both teams come into this fixture smarting from opening-day defeats – but their expectations are wildly different for the season. After winning promotion last season, KTP were expected to struggle but their first game against AC Oulu showed there is a long way to go to be competitive. The defending for the two goals conceded was poor, while they lacked any real precision upfront. They fielded several of their new signings but the gulf between the top two tiers is getting wider and this was evident. Experienced forward Simo Roiha was signed from the second division in winter but didn’t come off the bench until the hour.
KuPS have ambitions of regaining the title but started with a defeat at home to Inter and were poor at best. They had the lion’s share of possession and shots but struggled to break down a well organised defence. Anton Popovitch’s goal was well taken but not the start assistant-turned-head coach Pasi Tuutti was hoping for. The same group of players ran a close race for silver last year and should come out swinging against their inexperienced opponents.
KTP are fortunate that there are likely to be other poor sides in the bottom half but they’ll be adrift if they can’t put up more fight than they did last week. KuPS have the quality to put them to the sword but need to demonstrate a cutting edge and prove that there is life after Simo.
Haka v AC Oulu
The last league meeting of these two sides in August was one of the most entertaining fixtures of the season, a 3-2 win for Haka with a late winner and some touchline fire. Both sides have evolved and a repeat would be welcome, albeit unlikely.
Haka lost their first league match of the post-Lee Erwin era last week at SJK but went down fighting. Conceding after just two minutes puts all preparation out of the window but they did level with a fine volley from Ryan Mahuta, before poor play allowed the winner shortly after. Tainio’s side remain resolute and well-organised and created a few chances. The quality is there to fight for the top half and perhaps the lure of Conference League qualifiers might yet attract a decent centre forward.
Oulu had the freedom of Kotka in their win last week, their forwards took full advantage of their hospitality. Rasmus Karjalainen’s finish showed genuine class and should lead the push to Europe if the support remains. They shouldn’t have peaked too soon after a great pre-season but they’ll find it much harder in this fixture. The youthful guile of Otto Liimatta was key last week and will be needed against seasoned opponents. Oulu are displaying confidence befitting of a side on the up and will be looking to continue a great 2023.
PEC Zwolle v Telstar
PEC Zwolle could seal promotion this weekend. That’ll only happen if they win their match against Telstar and ADO Den Haag beat Almere later this weekend. So, whatever happens in this match, PEC won’t get to celebrate promotion in their own stadium this Friday and that is partly down to last week. They had a rare glitch away at FC Eindhoven last week, where they lost for the first time since February. Nevertheless, they can barely miss out anymore with six games to go and a 13-point gap.
With the much-wanted promotion in sight, the tension might be rising, but PEC are simply a very strong side, far better than every other Eerste Divisie side, except for Heracles Almelo, who are in a similar situation. Striker Lennart Thy is in brilliant form with ten goals from his last seven games, even coming from the bench in three of those matches and that will be hard to stop for Telstar.
Telstar are performing better than previous years, and are still in with a tiny shout on the promotion play-offs at the end of the season. However, after two defeats in a row against teams from the bottom half of the table, that seems like an impossible job. After the wake-up call against Eindhoven, PEC are highly unlikely to be surprised again, so I suspect an easy victory in their sold-out stadium.
Heracles Almelo v Roda JC
The match between Heracles Almelo and Roda JC is also a match between Roda goalscorer Dylan Vente and three Heracles strikers, all of whom rank in the top five in the league’s scoring charts. One of those three from Heracles won’t play here. Nikolai Laursen did his ACL and is out for the year. Their last game against De Graafschap showed that they had no problem scoring without Laursen, as the defenders stepped up with several goals, but they also forgot their main task, defending, and the promotion candidates were sent home with an unexpected 5-3 defeat. Heracles conceded eight goals in the last three games and that seems to be their problem at the minute.
Roda JC have been very inconsistent this season and it seems they are again going to miss out on the promotion play-offs this season. That is in spite of Vente, who was fourth in the top goalscorer ranking last year and leads the quest this time around with 19 goals. The team is all built around Vente to score the goals and he does that, but they don’t have much around him to score the goals. Roda generally don’t have a terrible defence, but they barely record clean sheets either, only two this year, and they won’t be at their strongest against Heracles. Experienced centre-back Nils Roseler won’t feature here, as he was sent off in the last match and is suspended.
The match that should feature three out of the top five top goalscorers in the league should have plenty of goals, especially on Heracles’s home pitch, where they find the net on average more than three times per game.
FC Den Bosch v Helmond Sport
This Southern derby is one between two teams sitting around the bottom of the table. It was only a month ago that Den Bosch equalised the biggest-ever league defeat in Dutch professional football, and things haven’t gone that much better since. They sacked manager Jack de Gier, who was already on his way out, but interim manager William van Overbeek has no experience as head coach of a professional football club, so things don’t look good. With van Overbeek in charge, they claimed a victory over FC Dordrecht, but the other four matches ended in defeat.
Helmond Sport are sitting close to the bottom of the table, but they rarely lose in truth. With new owners, they invested a lot into the side, but manager Sven Swinnen didn’t manage to make much out of it. Replacement Bob Peeters hasn’t been able to get a winning streak in, but they barely get defeated anymore. This year only three matches ended in a defeat and Helmond look pretty steady. They’ll be without left-back Gabriel Culhaci, who won his spot in the team under the new manager. Culhaci was sent off last week and won’t feature, but other than that Helmond Sport are complete and should be trusted to get a result against this weak team without confidence nor a proper manager.
Bohemians v St. Patrick’s Athletic
Having rested a number of key players for Monday night’s shock 1-0 win in Derry, Bohemians look really well set to potentially open an early 9-point lead at the top of the League of Ireland Premier Division standings.
The Gypsies were outplayed by Shamrock Rovers in the Dublin derby last Friday so when Declan Devine rested a number of players who have been top performers for the trip to the Brandywell very few would have given them a chance. That’s now 7 wins from 9 for Bohs who welcome a St. Pat’s side who they’ve already beaten this season.
The Saints have managed to string three wins together against UCD, Cork, and Drogheda but they are the three teams everyone tipped to finish in the bottom three this season so it may be a little early to start talking about a Pat’s revival.
The intensity of a Dublin derby at Dalymount is an entirely different test and the fact Pats have conceded the third-highest goals tally in the division will give Bohs hope that they can get at their city rivals.
St. Pat’s defensive woes won’t be helped by what looked like a hamstring issue for captain Joe Redmond in Drogheda on Easter Monday while key attacking threat Jake Mulraney was also forced off through injury.
Despite scoring just once this season, ex-Celtic striker Jonathan Afolabi has been excellent up top for Bohs and his physical presence could cause this shaky Saints defence some big problems.
UCD v Cork City
Despite showing some initial early promise this season, UCD are already starting to look like a lost cause down the bottom. With no wins from 9 matches and just 2 points on the board, the Students look nailed on for automatic relegation having scored just 4 goals with 21 conceded.
Cork City are the side directly above UCD so any hope of a push for safety needs to start here but that won’t be easy with the visitors buoyed by an Easter Monday win at home to old rivals Dundalk.
Cork City used the difficult conditions on the night to their advantage as they hammered the Dundalk penalty area with long throws and direct balls on a gusty night at Turners Cross. Cian Murphy punished the Dundalk defence for overplaying on 38 minutes as he finished off a City counter-attack and the Rebels never looked in any threat after that with Dundalk creating next to nothing on the night as the game ended 1-0.
Meanwhile, UCD were easily dispatched 3-0 against the champions Shamrock Rovers, it could have been a lot more and that’s perhaps the only surprise from the game that Rovers didn’t replicate something like the 7 goals they put past UCD in a game last season.
If Cork want to avoid the relegation play-off they simply have to win games like this or Colin Healy will very quickly be looking for a new job. The directness of their play could be too much for this leaky UCD defence to withstand.
Shamrock Rovers v Shelbourne
It’s now three wins on the spin for the Champions with the rest of the league now fearing a Hoops run of form that could blow everyone else out of the water. Rovers have won three consecutive titles because they’ve been capable of stringing extended winning sequences together and a home game against goal-shy Shelbourne looks like a good opening to extend their current winning form further.
Shelbourne showed strong character to come from behind to beat Sligo Rovers on Monday but a hilarious and freakish own goal by Sligo played a big part in that result. Prior to that, Shels produced one of their worst displays of the season as they drew 0-0 against bottom outfit UCD.
Shelbourne have scored just 6 times this season but Damien Duff’s team have the joint-best defensive record having conceded on only 5 occasions. Sitting in deep and frustrating Rovers will be the game plan here.
However, Shamrock Rovers have won their last 3 games to nil with the likes of Graham Burke (3 in 3) and Jack Byrne (2 in 3) in tremendous form. When those two players are on song it usually spells trouble no matter who the opposition is.
Waterford FC v Kerry FC
While Kerry have done extremely well to recover from a 9-1 humbling away to Galway last month there is a very reasonable and valid fear that a similar hammering could be dished out at the RSC on Friday night.
While Kerry have only picked up one point in the following four matches, they only lost by more than one goal in one of those games.
However, Galway United and Waterford FC look a cut above the rest in the First Division this season and with new Blues boss Keith Long appearing to take the handbrake off his players since his appointment, Kerry could be in for a long night.
Waterford have scored an eye-watering 10 goals in their first two games under Long, that’s double the goals tally Kerry have recorded all season and with Kerry shipping 21 goals in just 8 matches you can see why such predictions are being made.
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