Osasuna v Real Betis
There is a positive atmosphere around Osasuna right now after the club recently reached the Copa del Rey final, however it should be noted that their league form has suffered during this cup run. This Saturday’s visit of fifth-placed Real Betis will be a tough task for this Osasuna side that is struggling to refocus on the league.
Since the first leg of the cup semi-finals, Osasuna have won just one of the six league games played in that time and that victory was a 2-1 win at home to rock bottom Elche. Over those six games, Osasuna have actually been the fourth-worst team in the division, with just five points.
The game will be especially complicated for coach Jagoba Arrasate because he is likely to be without all three of the starting midfielders in his team’s 4-3-3 system.
Moi Gómez is suspended and Darko Brašanac is out for the rest of the season, while Lucas Torró is a major injury doubt too. Even though there are understudies who can come in, like Jon Moncayola or Pablo Ibáñez, it’s a big blow to lose all three midfielders at once and to do so for a game against a midfield as strong as Real Betis’.
Even though Real Betis are also without a key midfielder in the injured Nabil Fekir, they’re hopeful that his sidekick Sergio Canales will have a suspension appeal granted and be able to play. Even if he can’t, Real Betis’ squad depth is greater than Osasuna’s.
Plus, Real Betis have everything to play for in the league as they pursue Champions League qualification. There are surprisingly high odds for the away side in this game, which is most welcome if you believe Real Betis can exploit an Osasuna side lacking in both focus and in midfield options.
Salernitana v Sassuolo
Having lost just one of their last seven, Alessio Dionisi’s Sassuolo have put to shame those who were so quick to suggest that the Neroverdi might fall into Serie B after a slow first half of the season. On the road at Salernitana, they’ll be looking to build on their 1-0 win over Europa League semi-finalists Juventus last time out.
That win over the Old Lady summed up what Dionisi’s Neroverdi are all about as well. They controlled the game for large parts and were more than deserving of their three points, but they still had goalkeeper Andrea Congisli to thank for sending Juventus home to Turin empty handed. The experienced ‘keeper pulled off a number of stops to keep the Bianconeri out, and was named by some outlets as the Serie A Player of the Week for Matchday 30.
Salernitana themselves are in an impressive unbeaten run. They haven’t lost any of their last seven, though the six most recent of those results have been draws against Sampdoria, AC Milan, Bologna, Spezia, Inter and Torino. While they’ve shown an ability to keep perceived better sides from taking three points from them, the dropped points against Ligurian pair Samp and Spezia suggest that something is still missing.
The sides’ other meeting this season saw Sassuolo thump the Campania club 5-0 at the Mapei Stadium, so the Stadio Arechi will be somewhat fearful of this one perhaps, but we should at least see chances at both ends.
Brage v Helsingborg
These are two sides that have either stuttered and started slowly, in the case of the home team, or significantly and surprisingly underperformed to a large extent so far this season, in terms of the visitors.
Last season, Brage managed a top-half finish but missed out on the top three and the Allsvenskan/Superettan relegation/promotion playoff place by six points; they will be hoping to build upon that this time around but will be frustrated with their start. They began the 2023 Superettan season with back-to-back defeats.
However, they ended that short run with a welcome 2-0 victory away to Orebro in their most recent outing, last weekend, with two second-half goals from Samouil Izountouemoi and Gustav Berggren.
Following relegation last season, Helsingborg would have anticipated bouncing back up to the top-flight at the first opportunity but they have started the season really badly.
The visitors come into this on the back of a 1-0 defeat at home to Vasteras in their most recent outing, last weekend, to make it three successive defeats to kick start their 2023 Superettan campaign. All three defeats have been by a goal to nil and the pressure is significantly growing on the co-management duo of Mattias Lindstrom and Alvaro Santos.
Whilst Helsingborg have underperformed to a dramatic extent so far this season, they are taking on a Brage side that have also yet to convince with just a win and two defeats. The visitors will be looking to stop the rot against a relatively poor side so a low-scoring encounter, therefore, appears quite likely.
St Mirren v Kilmarnock
St Mirren can seal what has been a memorable season by securing a victory on Saturday that would put them in the top six bracket of the Premiership for the split.
Stephen Robinson’s side have been excellent at home all season and will come up against an opponent that has been terrible on the road all season. Last time out, the Paisley Saints were defeated comfortably by Rangers, yet that was to be expected in what always promised to be a tricky match for them. Back at home, they will expect three points.
The Buddies have chalked up an impressive nine home victories from 16 matches, and though they have hardly been prolific in these games – scoring only 21 goals – they have been very efficient overall. Last time out at home, they rolled Livingston over 3-0, scoring all their goals in a remarable first half.
Followers of Scottish football need little introduction to Kilmarnock’s away form. Derek McInnes’ side have picked up only two points from 16 away games all season and have managed to score only six goals in the process. They have lost all of their last six road trips by at least two goals, including matches against bottom side Ross County and out-of-sorts Livingston.
Although these teams played out a 0-0 draw in Paisley earlier this season, they are unlikely to pick anything up here. It is worth noting, however, that a draw would put St Mirren in the top six, so they may not go all out for the win.
Hamilton Academical v Partick Thistle
Hamilton and Partick go into their clash at New Douglas Park on Saturday with very different aspirations. The home side have two matches to save themselves from relegation – they may well need to win both – while Partick are seeking to make the promotion playoffs. This is an encounter that the visitors rightly start as favourites to win, yet the interesting value is on the both teams to score market.
Partick have been involved in a string of matches that have seen only one team find the net. Only three of their 14 league games in 2023 have seen both teams score, with the strength of their defence in recent weeks coming to the forefront. In their last 10 league matches, they have kept seven clean sheets and they will fancy their chances of doing so again against an opponent without a notable scoring threat.
Hamilton have offered little goal threat since the beginning of March. They have played eight games since then, of which they have only scored in three. One of those games on Tuesday when they were beaten 2-1 late by Inverness at home. That was a fixture they put a great deal into in terms of energy, and it would be little surprise to see them fatigued in this match after a busy few weeks.
Accies actually won 1-0 the last time that these sides met, and rather than back Partick to simply get the victory that is expected of them, go with at least one team to keep a clean sheet. If Hamilton are to take anything from this game, it will likely require them to shut Partick out, while the hosts’ poor attacking record means a clean sheet for the visitors is a strong bet.
FC Edinburgh v Kelty Hearts
Edinburgh can keep their slim hopes of reaching the League One playoffs alive on Saturday by overcoming a Kelty side that has absolutely nothing to play for in this final stretch of games.
The Citizens kept their hopes of going up burning in midweek with a surprise 2-1 victory away against second-placed Falkirk, but to hold out hope of the top four, they really need to win their final two matches of the season. This is one that they will feel they have a strong chance of getting something from, having already recorded three wins from three against their Fife opponents this season.
Kelty, meanwhile, will have limited motivation to get something out of this game. Years of heavy investment in the playing staff will come to an end in the summer, with the departures of the manager and several key members of the squad already confirmed. Worse, they are struggling with a number of injury problems and the prospects of anyone going through the pain barrier at this point in the season are slim given they will finish eighth.
Kelty have picked up only one victory in their last 13 matches and finished up their match against Alloa last weekend with a string of inexperienced players on the field. Although Edinburgh are in a somewhat patched up state themselves, the home side should have enough to rouse themselves for one final effort in a fortnight. This is a match that they certainly should not be losing, so backing them on a draw no bet basis looks a very healthy bet.
Dumbarton v East Fife
For Dumbarton, the final three matches of the season will be about managing their squad to best prepare for the playoffs. That in itself will be a challenging given how many injuries that are being carried. Certainly, they are unlikely to view getting a victory on Saturday against East Fife as a necessity.
The Sons also have had the challenge of a busy calendar in recent weeks. That came to a head on Tuesday against Stirling Albion in a 0-0 draw in which both teams looked incredibly tired.
Dumbarton’s home form over the season reads nine wins in 16 matches, but in recent weeks it has been lamentable. All of their four defeats at the Rock have come in the last six outings, in which they have accrued only four points.
East Fife, on the other hand, come into this game needing a victory to keep a stranglehold on their playoff place. They are arguably the form team in the league, having enjoyed a seven-match undefeated run, which has seen them pick up four wins. Last weekend, they hammered Stranraer 8-0 at home, so there will be no lack of confidence from the visiting team.
East Fife are not notably strong away from home but their record is still a handy one. They have won seven of 16 away matches and given the momentum of the respective clubs going into this game, should be supported on a draw no bet basis to get another.
The away side are hungry and in form, the hosts are beat up and limping into the post-season.
SJK v FC Lahti
Two middle-of-the-road sides meet on Saturday, coming in with a win and a draw from their opening fixtures. Both have shown some unexpected fight so far, which might just translate into a good one.
SJK’s clean sheet away to Honka was welcome, the on-loan Arsenal keeper Ovie Ejeheri no doubt getting plenty of confidence. The promotion of Kingsley Ofori from the academy side has been a huge boost (the juniors benefit from a huge amount of the club’s budget), a goal and assist in the opening round against Haka. Nicaraguan striker Jaime Moreno still hasn’t been trusted with a full ninety minutes (he did play the entire international last month), his recent cameos have only shown glimpses of what was promised.
A comeback victory away to Mariehamn last week gave Lahti a boost, coming from behind twice to win 2-3. The inspiration came from young midfielder Tommi Jantti, an early substitute scoring and assisting in a man of the match performance.
A full pre-season with the squad appears to have been much needed for new coach Mikko Mannila, the results looking good already. Lahti have yet to be tested against top opponents but SJK are a level above and will put pressure on.
New signings Pablo Andrade returns against his former club and is a very experienced campaigner from full-back and should start. Altin Zeqiri has four goals in his last three matches so if fit, is likely to give the SJK plenty to think about.
Degerfors v Elfsborg
Only one point separates the two teams clashing here, but this equates to six spots in the table this early on in the season. Elfsborg sit in 7th with 4 points so far while Degerfors are just above the relegation zone on 3 points.
The home side’s struggles have mainly been defensively – at the tail end of last season, with their top-flight status on the line, they became much more rugged and conceded only 8 goals in their final 10 matches to escape relegation.
With three games now played this year they have already conceded six, and while their attacking powers are clear to see, more solidity is required to stay up this time around too. Mjällby was far and away the better team last week, doubling Degerfors’ xG figure. At home Degerfors is a different beast though, not losing in their last 13 matches at Stora Valla.
Elfsborg’s first two games were shaky, neither scoring against Häcken nor Varberg. Last week, however, a big bang came against newcomers Brommapojkarna, totally dismantling their opponents by getting 21 shots off and scoring 5 goals. Such an unloading was needed to kickstart the season for a dangerous team with plenty of quality throughout.
Alexander Bernhardsson was on fire, racking up a hattrick with an assist to boost, and looks much improved from last season. The defence was an issue for much of 2022 but has improved too and this team looks ready to challenge for European football.
The strong home form of Degerfors combined with the dangerous nature of this Elfsborg side should mean we see goals in both directions.
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