Doncaster Rovers have enjoyed a strong start to life back in League One, picking up two points per game on average and having only tasted defeat at one of the division's big spenders, Huddersfield. They currently sit 8th in the table, and that is in line with their performance data.

Rotherham were a team I backed for relegation in the summer at a price of 7/1, due to being unconvinced by the managerial ability of local lad Matt Hamshaw, the departure of key players like Hakeem Odoffin and Malik Wilks, and some underwhelming incomings in the transfer market. They’re now best price 2/1 for relegation, after starting the season with four points from four games, their expected points figure is just two. 

The price for Doncaster to win is a bit short, so to add a bit of value, the selection is for them to win to nil. The Millers have the lowest xGF per game in League One, whilst Rovers have the 4th-lowest xGA per 90.

Crewe tasted their first defeat of the season away at Gillingham on Saturday, going down 1-0 after winning their first four games. Despite that loss, they still sit at the top of the tree in League Two, and a defeat at Gillingham is no disaster, given they have won all three games at Priestfield.

They face a Swindon side who have also got off to a decent start, currently 8th in the table and 6th in the xG table. They won 2-1 at the weekend in stoppage time against Shrewsbury, but it was a closer game than it should have been against a Shrews side that had only picked up one point from their opening five games. That was after a home defeat against Barnet, which was their first points of the season.

Swindon’s regression in performance may be related to the season-ending injury sustained by target man Harry Smith, so this looks a good time to be getting against them whilst they are learning to play without him.

There are just five places and three points between these two sides in the League One table, but it’s a good example of why the table isn’t always a reliable indicator of a team's ability.

If we switch to the xG table, Bolton Wanderers are the best side in the division, with an expected points tally of 10 from five games. They appear to have been unlucky to concede five goals so far, with an xGA of 2.9, the lowest of any side. They’ve also faced two of the current top six already.

Blackpool, despite much pre-season optimism, find themselves with just one win from five games, having lost the other four. They have conceded 12 goals, which is three more than the next highest, whilst their total xG of 3.6 is the 2nd-lowest. I witnessed them with my own eyes last Tuesday against Mansfield Town, and they failed to lay a glove, losing 2-0 with just one shot on target. The Stags have conceded against every other League One opponent they have faced. They then went to Plymouth, who were winless before their visit, and lost 1-0.

To see Bolton odds-against for this game is a steal.

Oldham are yet to win in their return to the EFL, but have performed creditably so far, drawing four and losing just once against Swindon after a slow start gave their opponents a 2-0 lead.

Their draws have come against MK Dons and Bristol Rovers, who you would expect to be top seven sides, and then Fleetwood and Colchester, who should be upwardly mobile.

They are hosting a Gills side, who have seen off Crewe and Chesterfield in their last two games, who had both made strong starts. Away from home, though, not as impressive but solid draws against Accrington and Tranmere in games where they have created very little. At Tranmere, they managed just six shots for 0.17 xG.

I expect this to be a tight, low-scoring game, but the under 2.5 goal line price is unappealing, and therefore I’ll take a chance on these sides not being able to be separated.