The Stags are having a sneakily good season and find themselves lurking just outside the play-offs, whilst Plymouth need to wake up and realise that they are in a real relegation battle, especially with four relegation spots in League One.

There is hope for Plymouth though, as, unlike many relegation candidates, they do look to have a steady supply of goals in their locker. The signing of Lorent Tolaj has massively improved them at the top of the pitch, it is now up to Tom Cleverley to work out how best to build around him. From a betting perspective, this makes a BTTS bet an attractive proposition.

Plymouth in League One this season have averaged 1.31 goals per game and conceded 1.77. This aligns fairly well with their xG data as well, which is slightly lower on both sides, 1.1 v 1.5, but still averaging at over a goal per game both offensively and defensively.

The case for BTTS becomes even more convincing when rhyming this with Mansfield’s data. The Stags have actually seen six of their last seven matches in all competitions return as BTTS, whilst Nigel Clough’s team themselves have notched in 12 of their 13 league games so far this season.

Mansfield’s average League One goals for is 1.46 and their concession average is 1.15, but their expected goals data is the other way round, with 1.2xG for and 1.4xG against, so they may be slightly fortunate in their league position. Goals look likely here.

Accrington are having a poor run, but have that one outstanding home win over Swindon that is doing a lot of heavy lifting in their current form. However, we cannot just dismiss that result just because of the fact that it came with a helping hand from a Swindon red card. Accrington still managed to turn in a performance at home, where they were devastating on the break.

Indeed, though Accrington are floundering close to the bottom two, their performance data suggests that they have been slightly unfortunate, especially where goals are concerned. They are averaging over 1.2xG per match, which rises to 1.4 at home, and that is a healthy figure when looking at a goals bet. Defensively, they have conceded in four of their six home matches, and in 10 of their 13 League Two matches overall, with an average xG against of 1.35.

Tranmere have been really interesting from a goals perspective this season. They are actually averaging 1.6 goals a game, and conceding 1.46, so there is a goal average of just over three goals a game for the Wirral side. Nine of their 13 league games have ended with both teams scoring, and Tranmere themselves have scored in 11 of those 13 matches as well.

Just to add further fuel to the fire, Tranmere’s last four visits to Accrington have ended 3-3, 1-4, 2-2, and 1-2 since 2020.