English League Two Betting Tips

Millwall have a significant preparation advantage to host Lincoln at 12:30 on Saturday.

Lincoln were beaten 6-0 at home to West Ham on Wednesday evening, suffering two red cards in the first half.

Where Millwall lost 1-0 at home to Swansea on Tuesday.

So, not only do Lincoln have one less day to recover and prepare for this game, they have to contend with suspensions to Tom Hamer and Conor McGrandles and the worsened fatigue element having had to chase West Ham around for 70 minutes with nine players.

Millwall would’ve been strong favourites to get the win even without that additional context, and this could be a great opportunity to get back on track.

They’re 4th for xG generated this season, underperforming a touch, this could be the game that sees them regress to the mean against a vulnerable Lincoln side given this midweek’s events.

Fleetwood have been unsustainably overperforming defensively, they’ve conceded nearly seven xG more than their goals conceded tally (11 in 10 games) which is the biggest overperformance in the league.

Rotherham rank 8th for xG generated per match and have found the net in 8/10 League Two outings so far this season.

They’ve unsustainably underperformed to score only four from 6.6 xG across their five League Two away games, and face the 3rd-worst defence this weekend, with Fleetwood conceding 1.79 xG per game on average.

Their first choice striker Paul Mullin is not to blame, he’s been clinical with five goals from 3.88 xG - his finishing is not the reason for their underperformance.

The 2.63 about Rotherham scoring over 1.5 goals also appeals this weekend, as does Mullin anytime at 3.50.

Derby are hoping to end a wretched run of form when they welcome Stoke on Saturday afternoon, they’ve failed to win any of their last five matches - but have seen BTTS in four of those games.

Stoke have a much better form heading into this game having won three of their last four matches, with all four of those games seeing BTTS.

It's a battle of the 2nd and 3rd-worst defences in the league according to xG conceded, both are at 1.75 xG conceded per game or more, and of the 20 league games they've played collectively this season, they've managed a combined three clean sheets - 15%.

Everyone knows how Leicester are going to play.

The defending in their 3-1 defeat at home to Peterborough last weekend was comical, and Doncaster have looked a better side than Posh this season.

Donny have found the net in six of eight in the league, scoring nine times from just over 12 xG - so even though they’ve cashed this bet in 75% of their games, the numbers still suggest they should’ve scored more, a healthy situation to take into the weekend.

In Leicester’s only home league clean sheet of the season, they still gave up 1.15 xG which suggests Donny are more than capable of creating the chances that see them cover this line.

The 2.63 on over 1.5 Donny goals also appeals, this could get toxic early on if Leicester don’t start well.

Going into last weekend, Reading were stripped of 59% of their league goals with the players they had out injured - but they coped brilliantly.

Dispatching MK Dons 5-1 on their travels (winning the xG battle 0.44-3.64), demonstrating just how strong they are as a collective.

They now go into this weekend four points off the top of the league, travelling to rock-bottom Wigan.

Wigan picked up just four points this season, losing six of their opening eight league games.

Reading are top of the league on expected points, and have been far superior to Wigan in both boxes - who sit 17th by the same measure.

Wigan have lost 3/4 home league games so far, and haven’t scored in any of their last four in the league.

Fleetwood have been unsustainably overperforming defensively, they’ve conceded nearly seven xG more than their goals conceded tally (11 in 10 games) which is the biggest overperformance in the league.

Rotherham rank 8th for xG generated per match and have found the net in 8/10 League Two outings so far this season.

They’ve unsustainably underperformed to score only four from 6.6 xG across their five League Two away games, and face the 3rd-worst defence this weekend, with Fleetwood conceding 1.79 xG per game on average.

Their first choice striker Paul Mullin is not to blame, he’s been clinical with five goals from 3.88 xG - his finishing is not the reason for their underperformance.

The 2.63 about Rotherham scoring over 1.5 goals also appeals this weekend, as does Mullin anytime at 3.50.

I admire what Bromley have achieved but League One looks a step too far. One win in seven and they’ve been on the end of some heavy defeats.

The performances don’t suggest the tide will turn. Their xG is the worst in the league and only Blackpool are conceding more chances.

Stockport have won two on the bounce at home, this can be the hat trick.

Peter Cklamovski has finally gotten Salford rolling. It was a slow start but the switch to a back 5 seems to have done the trick.

They’re unbeaten since the change and have become a really tough nut to crack, especially at home.

They’ve won four on the bounce at Moor Lane with the last three all being 1-0, giving away an average of just 0.7 xG per game.

Crawley have one league win all season, I doubt that’ll change here.

Crewe are a tough nut to crack, unbeaten in 10 with four clean sheets and just seven conceded.

Tom Booth may be the league’s best keeper, while Brentford loanee Josh Stephenson has been excellent at centre-half. Reece Hutchinson is also back fit, a huge boost at both ends of the pitch.

Rochdale are unbeaten in five but created fewer than 1 xG in three. With the league’s worst xG per game, they could struggle to break down a solid Crewe side.

Man City have won all six Premier League matches under Enzo Maresca, with 16 goals scored and just five conceded to establish a three point lead at the top of the pile.

Their victory against Liverpool last weekend was perhaps their most impressive result of the season so far, as they won 3-0 with goals from Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki and Jeremy Doku. Over 2.5 goals has landed in each of Man City’s last four matches across all competitions, and they were beaten 4-2 by PSG midweek in an enthralling encounter. 

The hosts come into this clash as heavy favourites but Ipswich will fancy their chances of at least finding the back of the net. The Tractor Boys beat Fulham 2-1 last weekend, and they even scored twice against Arsenal in the EFL Cup in a 4-2 defeat.

Going into last weekend, Reading were stripped of 59% of their league goals with the players they had out injured - but they coped brilliantly.

Dispatching MK Dons 5-1 on their travels (winning the xG battle 0.44-3.64), demonstrating just how strong they are as a collective.

They now go into this weekend four points off the top of the league, travelling to rock-bottom Wigan.

Wigan picked up just four points this season, losing six of their opening eight league games.

Reading are top of the league on expected points, and have been far superior to Wigan in both boxes - who sit 17th by the same measure.

Wigan have lost 3/4 home league games so far, and haven’t scored in any of their last four in the league.

Fleetwood have been unsustainably overperforming defensively, they’ve conceded nearly seven xG more than their goals conceded tally (11 in 10 games) which is the biggest overperformance in the league.

Rotherham rank 8th for xG generated per match and have found the net in 8/10 League Two outings so far this season.

They’ve unsustainably underperformed to score only four from 6.6 xG across their five League Two away games, and face the 3rd-worst defence this weekend, with Fleetwood conceding 1.79 xG per game on average.

Their first choice striker Paul Mullin is not to blame, he’s been clinical with five goals from 3.88 xG - his finishing is not the reason for their underperformance.

The 2.63 about Rotherham scoring over 1.5 goals also appeals this weekend, as does Mullin anytime at 3.50.

There should be no shortage of goals when East Kilbride face Montrose in Scottish League One on Saturday. 

Both teams have been among the SPFL’s great entertainers this season, so over 2.5 goals looks an appealing option.

East Kilbride were involved in plenty of high-scoring games during last season’s promotion campaign, and this term has been no different. 

Indeed, 8 of their 10 league games this season have produced over 2.5 goals, including 4 of their 5 at home. 

Given the attacking intensity Mick Kennedy’s men play with, they are more than capable of covering the over 2.5 line themselves. 

They are also vulnerable at the back though, as shown by last weekend’s 2-2 home draw with Airdrie.

Montrose have been just as reliable, with over 2.5 goals landing in 9 of their 10 league games, including their win over East Kilbride in the reverse fixture in August.

Clyde look well placed to preserve their perfect home record in Scottish League Two by beating Annan on Saturday. 

The Bully Wee are joint top of the table and made it five home wins from five with a 2-1 victory over Dumbarton last weekend.

They will be confident of extending that run against an Annan side that are propping up the table.

Moreover, the Galabankies were thrashed 6-1 at home by Stranraer last weekend and have also lost their last three league games on the road. 

Each of those three away defeats came against a team currently fifth or lower in the table, which strengthens the case for Clyde to claim another home win.

Dumbarton tend to do their best work at home and look worthy of support on the double chance when they host Stirling Albion on Saturday.

All 12 points the Sons have earned this season have come at home, including victories in each of their last three matches at the Rock.

They also beat joint league leaders Clyde 2-1 in their first home game of the campaign.

Stirling have turned a corner recently with a couple of wins, but their only away success in the league came against bottom side Annan, and even that was a narrow 1-0 victory.

The Binos had lost each of their previous four away games prior to that success, including heavy defeats at Forfar and Elgin and a loss away to Edinburgh City in which they conceded seven goals.

Moreover, Steven Whittaker’s side have won just 3 of their 10 league matches this season, so it is difficult to see them claiming another victory against a Dumbarton side who have been so strong at home.