UEFA Nations League Betting Tips

This is a meeting between two huge nations with new managers at the helm, and I’m expecting goals.

We know that Jurgen Klopp wants his sides to play with plenty of intensity in that ‘heavy metal’ style of football which worked so well for the new Germany boss during his time at Liverpool.

Germany saw BTTS in all four of their games at the World Cup in what proved to be a disappointing campaign, with Julian Naglesmann’s side crashing out to Paraguay in the Round of 32 on penalties.

Netherlands have finally parted ways with Ronald Koeman and now have Xavi as head coach, who is another manager that will set up his side to be quite offensive and has the talent to cause Germany issues.

Netherlands also saw BTTS in all four of their games in the World Cup, crashing out to Morocco on penalties at the same stage where Germany exited the tournament.

Norway conceded 11 goals from an xG of 9.20 across their six matches at the World Cup, and have only managed to keep out one side across their last 13 matches more widely.

Denmark scored 16 goals across six matches in qualifying, only failing to score against Scotland, a game in which they generated an xG of 1.20 from 16 shots.

In their last Nations League campaign, Denmark scored seven goals across six matches from an xG of 9.40. Denmark were actually around 20 places higher than Norway in the rankings before the World Cup. The Norwegians have since overtaken them, but only two places separate the sides (19th and 21st).

Denmark came away 3-1 winners when the nations last met in 2024. It's not a massive indicator as it was a friendly, but it reflects a wider trend of Denmark avoiding defeat in each of the last five meetings, stretching all the way back to 2011.

Norway enjoyed a really strong World Cup campaign over the summer, reaching the quarter finals and beating the likes of Senegal, Ivory Coast and Brazil with Haaland having a particularly strong campaign.

Norway failed to keep a clean sheet during the World Cup despite their success overall, which is something that Denmark will be aware of and be able to punish with the attacking talent they have in their squad. These nations haven’t met since 2024, but BTTS did land on that occasion as Denmark emerged as 3-1 winners.

Norway scored more goals than any other nation during qualifying (37 - 4.6 per game) and with players like Erling Haaland, it’s very likely that they find the back of the net. Denmark were unlucky to miss out on the World Cup, they scored 16 goals during their qualifying campaign (2.66 per game).

This is a meeting between two huge nations with new managers at the helm, and I’m expecting goals.

We know that Jurgen Klopp wants his sides to play with plenty of intensity in that ‘heavy metal’ style of football which worked so well for the new Germany boss during his time at Liverpool.

Germany saw BTTS in all four of their games at the World Cup in what proved to be a disappointing campaign, with Julian Naglesmann’s side crashing out to Paraguay in the Round of 32 on penalties.

Netherlands have finally parted ways with Ronald Koeman and now have Xavi as head coach, who is another manager that will set up his side to be quite offensive and has the talent to cause Germany issues.

Netherlands also saw BTTS in all four of their games in the World Cup, crashing out to Morocco on penalties at the same stage where Germany exited the tournament.

It’s a new era for Portugal with Jorge Jesus set to take charge of his first game as the national team boss, taking over from Roberto Martinez who was ultimately unsuccessful in his role with Portugal falling flat at the World Cup.

The main frustration with Martinez was that this squad has more than enough quality to be one of the serious contenders in major tournaments, but they have rarely threatened a run like that over the last few years under Martinez’s guidance - but did win the Nations League a few years ago.

Wales are progressing well under Craig Bellamy, but a win against one of the more elite sides on the continent has eluded them. They failed to win any of their three friendly matches over the summer against Romania, Ghana and Northern Ireland - making this task look very difficult on paper.

Greece could be on the cusp of a golden generation with a variety of talented players, particularly forwards, coming through at the same time.

Greece didn’t feature at the World Cup over the summer despite this influx of talent, but I expect them to feature at the next few international tournaments as these players mature and get experience at some of the top clubs in Europe.

Greece scored 10 goals across their six games during qualifying, also conceding 12 goals across these matches. Serbia have conceded in each of their last nine games, last keeping a clean sheet against Latvia all the way back in September 2025.

This is a meeting between two huge nations with new managers at the helm, and I’m expecting goals.

We know that Jurgen Klopp wants his sides to play with plenty of intensity in that ‘heavy metal’ style of football which worked so well for the new Germany boss during his time at Liverpool.

Germany saw BTTS in all four of their games at the World Cup in what proved to be a disappointing campaign, with Julian Naglesmann’s side crashing out to Paraguay in the Round of 32 on penalties.

Netherlands have finally parted ways with Ronald Koeman and now have Xavi as head coach, who is another manager that will set up his side to be quite offensive and has the talent to cause Germany issues.

Netherlands also saw BTTS in all four of their games in the World Cup, crashing out to Morocco on penalties at the same stage where Germany exited the tournament.

Cody Gakpo has started the season really well after a summer of transfer speculation in which he was linked with a move away from Liverpool, with the likes of Tottenham and Manchester City showing interest.

Gakpo seems to improve even further when playing for his national side, he’s netted 24 goals across 54 caps which is a very solid record at international level and he should have opportunities to offer a threat in front of goal in this clash.

Gakpo has taken 10 shots across his four starts in the Premier League this season (2.43 per 90), with one of these efforts finding the back of the net. He scored three goals across four starts during the World Cup, averaging 2.43 shots per 90 and 1.46 shots on target per 90.

Gakpo was also a threat in front of goal during Netherlands’ World Cup qualifying campaign, scoring four goals across eight starts and averaging 1.10 shots on target per 90.

Kai Havertz led the line quite well for Germany during the World Cup, scoring three goals across his four starts from 12 shots (3.04 per 90).

Seven of these efforts found the target (1.77 per 90), with Havertz also making a decent start to this season domestically having scored three goals in his seven appearances across all competitions.

Havertz didn’t feature often during Germany’s World Cup qualifying campaign due to injury, but was effective the last time that Germany competed in the Nations League - scoring two goals across three starts and averaging 1.81 shots on target per 90 across these matches. 

Felix Nmecha was shooting for fun during the World Cup, taking eight shots across his four starts for Germany (2.65 per 90).

Five of these efforts came from outside of the box, showing how Nmecha isn’t afraid to take on more speculative efforts which is a good sign for the angle we’re taking here.

Nmecha has already scored two goals for Dortmund in the Bundesliga this season, taking six shots across his three starts (2.31 per 90). He only played 81 minutes for Germany during qualifying, but did manage three shots during this action.

Germany lack clinical players in forward areas, so their goals tend to be spread throughout the side and Nmecha is someone who can step up in this role having made a strong start to the season in front of goal.

Ronaldo is still expected to lead the line for Portugal during this Nations League campaign and will be eager to reach the 150 international goal mark, which he is four goals away from. 

Ronaldo has scored three goals across five starts for Al Nassr in the early stages of the season, taking 19 shots across these matches (4.04 per 90), seeing 10 of these efforts find the target (2.13 per 90) - an impressive shot accuracy of over 50%.

Ronaldo scored five goals across five starts during Portugal’s World Cup qualifying campaign, notably averaging 7.44 shots per 90 and 2.88 shots on target per 90. 

He may be past his best, but he’s determined to be a part of the national side and I can see him having chances in front of goal as Portugal’s main vocal point with the 41-year-old still boasting a really healthy shot average. 

Harry Wilson is still trying to find a way into the starting lineup for Leeds, but he almost always delivers for his country.

Wilson enjoyed his strongest ever personal season last year as he registered 19 goal contributions across all competitions, with 17 of these coming in the Premier League.

He’s remarkably consistent when lining up for his country, scoring 17 goals across his 69 caps which is a really solid record at international level. 

Wilson scored five goals across six starts for Wales during their World Cup qualifying campaign, taking 17 shots across these games (2.76 per 90) and seeing seven of these efforts find the target (1.14 per 90).

Wales have been really bold so far under Craig Bellamy, and I don’t expect that approach to change here against a Portugal side who are entering a new era under Jorge Jesus.

Portugal could easily cover this line on their own, there’s been a recent trend with this national side that they look really convincing outside of the major tournaments but then struggle under the pressure of those environments.

Portugal saw 27 goals across their six matches during qualifying (4.5 per game), seeing 2+ goals in five of their six matches with the exception of a 1-0 win over Ireland where they recorded an xG of 2.97.

Wales have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches under Craig Bellamy. As mentioned above, they won’t come here and just accept sitting deep - Bellamy wants them to be aggressive and on the front foot, setting the stage for an entertaining game.

Ethan Ampadu is such an important player for this Wales side and has established himself as a Premier League regular for Leeds, committing four fouls across his five starts this season.

He committed eight fouls across five starts during Wales’ World Cup qualifying campaign (1.59 per 90) and will have a very difficult task here in trying to contain Portugal’s midfield, composed of some of the most talented players in Europe.

Ampadu averaged 1.44 fouls committed per 90 for Leeds in the Premier League last season, also collecting 10 yellow cards across his 35 matches - more than any other Leeds player. 

Italy have embarrassed themselves on the international stage over recent years, failing to qualify for a single major tournament since their triumph in the European Championships back in 2021.

They’ve now turned to Roberto Mancini to try and change the culture of the national side, and this will be his first game in charge. 

Italy have struggled against the elite sides in Europe over the last few years, losing both games against Norway during World Cup qualifying as well as losing to Germany and France when they last competed in the Nations League. 

They actually ran out 1-0 winners when these sides last met in 2024, but the three meetings prior to that clash saw BTTS. Belgium saw BTTS in five of their six games at the World Cup, only keeping a clean sheet against Iran during their run to the quarter finals. 

Georgia failed to really kick on after their impressive run in the 2024 European Championships, failing to win five of their six matches during World Cup qualifying in what was a tough group in fairness with the likes of Spain and Turkiye coming through it.

That said, there is a lot of room for optimism for Georgia with the talent that is coming through - spearheaded by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia who has established himself as one of the best players in the world over recent seasons at PSG.

Northern Ireland tend to struggle on the road, they’ve only managed to win one of their last 10 away games with their most recent competitive win coming against Luxembourg at home. Georgia have enough quality to avoid defeat here against a Northern Ireland side who don’t take much from their travels. 

Türkiye’s games tend to be really hectic, we saw how shot happy they were at the World Cup despite their early exit and I think they could get on the scoresheet here.

France are another nation that is going through a period of transition following the World Cup, with long term head coach Didier Deschamps being replaced by French legend Zinedine Zidane.

Türkiye played three games at the World Cup and recorded an xG of 1.0 or higher in all three games, actually clearing the 2.0 xG mark in two of these matches. 

They also scored 17 goals across just six matches during qualifying (2.83 per game), but also conceded 12 (2.0 per game), showing where Turkiye may be a bit vulnerable to the talent of France’s frontline.

Sweden had some good moments at the World Cup, with the heavy defeats they suffered to France and Netherlands being a bit unfair to their performances in those games.

Graham Potter’s side will feel as though they are the strongest nation in this group, which also contains Poland and Bosnia. Sweden actually finished bottom of their qualifying group without winning a game, but it was their display in the last  Nations League which helped them qualify for the World Cup.

That recent qualifying campaign has plenty of context too, Sweden were in a real mess and Potter joined just before the end of the campaign, with their form picking up in that period. Romania didn’t feature at the World Cup as they failed to get out of a group also featuring Austria and Bosnia.