UEFA Super Cup Betting Tips

The 2nd-highest rated game of the evening on the Goals Sheet.

Rapid are 4-1 up from the first leg, they won the xG battle 1.38-4.05 in Estonia and established a three-goal lead in the tie late on, drawing 1-1 until the 83rd minute.

Rapid saw both teams score on Sunday as well, winning 2-1 at Ried and conceding 1.08 xG in the process.

Polish side Katowice have seen both teams score in four of their five competitive matches so far this season.

They are odds-on favourites to win the second leg, down 2-0 from the first, and Hapoel Tel Aviv have scored exactly two goals in their four competitive games this season.

Katowice have nothing to lose and must go for it if they are to stay in the competition, while the first leg proved that the Israeli visitors can break through the Polish side’s backline.

Debreceni can profit from some Copenhagen complacency to get on the scoresheet in the second leg of their Europa Conference qualifying tie.

They had 13 shots, despite losing the first leg 3-0, and Copenhagen are not as strong as they have been in previous years, hence why they are having to qualify for Europe’s third competition after finishing as the 7th-best team in the Danish league last season.

Copenhagen go to 4th-placed Randers at the weekend and may prioritise that game in terms of their team selection, while still ensuring they progress in the tie with three goals of margin for error coming into the second leg.

This game has the highest goals sheet rating of the night.

PSG are strong favourites for the game, but they did concede in their final two competitive games of last season. Including losing 2-1 to Paris FC.

The Parisians will have more players with World Cup fatigue than Villa, which should increase the Premier League side’s chances of finding the net in Austria.

Copenhagen saw off Debreceni with ease when the sides met in the first leg of this Conference League qualifying tie, emerging as 3-0 winners as the away side.

I expect them to be just as dominant in this encounter as the home side, even with the healthy lead they hold over their opponents. Copenhagen registered 10 shots on target in the first leg, recording an xG of 1.69 while limiting their opponents to just two shots on target and an xG of 0.36.

Copenhagen have won both of their league games so far this season, scoring six goals across these matches. They only lost five of their 16 home games in the Superligaen last term and enter this clash having avoided defeat in each of their last 11 matches. 

BTTS landed in both head to head meetings between these sides last year as PSG emerged victorious over two legs in a Champions League knockout tie.

We can expect both sides to have a fair bit of rotation in this clash given that players are still returning from the World Cup and this fixture sits as a bit of a free hit for both ahead of the season starting.

PSG saw BTTS in their final friendly game against Manchester United and notably only kept five clean sheets on their way to winning the Champions League trophy last year, suggesting that their success was more linked to their attacking performance rather than defensive solidity.

Unai Emery has serious European pedigree having won five Europa League titles throughout his career, his Villa side have seen BTTS in four of their five friendly matches ahead of this clash.

Kvaratskhelia scored 20 goals across all competitions last season, which was his best ever return as a professional footballer across five seasons with Napoli and PSG.

He can play on both sides and should have a real fitness advantage over the majority of players around him having had a whole summer to prepare for this season as Georgia failed to qualify for the World Cup.

Kvaratskhelia also looked bright in PSG’s final friendly game before this Super Cup final, having the most touches in the opposition box (7) and registering a shot on target as Luis Enrique’s side drew 1-1 with Manchester United.

Kamara was a pretty big miss for Aston Villa in the second half of last season after he picked up an injury at the start of January which ruled him out for the rest of the campaign.

Villa eventually managed to find their feet and went on to win the Europa League and recover in the league, but Kamara’s presence does make them a much better side - especially with Villa now being without Rogers and Tielemans, making Kamara’s job even more important when Villa are without the ball.

Kamara picked up five yellow cards across his 17 starts in the Premier League last season from an average of 1.08 fouls committed per 90. He’s now paired with Joao Gomes in the middle of the park for Villa and I can see that duo being a good pairing to watch for cards and fouls in this game and across the season as a whole. 

Emi Buendia made a habit of popping up for Villa in important moments and big games last season, and I can see him having a say again in this clash against a PSG side with a depleted back line.

Buendia was awarded man of the match for his performance in the Europa League final a few months ago, recording a goal and an assist - as well as having two shots on target. 

His goal came from outside the box, which is another marker of Buenida’s game - he isn’t afraid to take aim from distance with three of his six goals in the Premier League and two of his four goals in the Europa League coming from outside the box last term. 

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia should be the fittest of the PSG forwards having had a summer to recover as he didn’t feature in the World Cup. 

Kvaratskhelia had 3+ shots in both legs when these sides faced off in the Champions League last year, getting on the scoresheet as PSG won 3-1 at the Parc Des Princes.

His wider form in Europe is also impressive with Kvaratskhelia registering 16 goal contributions across his 14 starts in the Champions League last term - finding the target on 18 occasions (1.42 per 90). 

Aston Villa have been the most fouled side in the Premier League for the last two seasons and John McGinn is one of the leading players in this Villa squad for fouls won across this period.

McGinn was fouled in both of the head to head meetings between the sides in the Champions League last season, drawing 2+ fouls when the sides met in the Parc Des Princes. It’s such a consistent part of his game, and should come to the fore against a PSG side who like to press as a pack.

McGinn won 15 fouls across his eight starts in the Europa League last season as Villa went on to lift the trophy, working out to an average of 1.89 fouls won per 90. 

PSG press relentlessly and their forward line often come away with healthy foul counts as a result of this brave approach employed by Luis Enrique.

Kvaratskhelia committed two fouls when these sides met at the Parc Des Princes last year and committed 13 fouls across his 14 starts in the Champions League on the whole during the 25/26 campaign (1.03 fouls per 90).

He’s lining up against the most fouled side in the Premier League over the last two campaigns, and the expected threats of Cash (1.30 fouls won per 90) and McGinn (1.89 fouls won per 90) should offer enough of a challenge for Kvaratskhelia to commit at least one foul. 

Both head to head meetings between these sides in the Champions League last year saw 3+ goals, with PSG coming away 3-1 winners in the first leg before Villa almost managed to claw back the deficit with a 3-2 win at Villa Park.

PSG are looking to retain the Super Cup after winning it on penalties last year following a 2-2 draw with Tottenham in normal time. There is often quite a lot of rotation in the Super Cup, so we can expect both sides to struggle at times defensively and create an end to end contest.

Unai Emery’s pedigree in Europe should also be factored in to Villa’s chances of coming out on top in this game, he’s won the Europa League on five occasions and will see this as an opportunity to add another trophy to his European cabinet - I think Villa can contribute to the goal tally, as we saw in both head to head games last year. 

Safonov only kept four clean sheets across his 11 starts in the Champions League last term, but PSG still relied on his shot stopping ability to reach the final.

He made 32 saves across these games (2.82 per 90) with a save percentage of 71%. He was forced into making five saves in PSG’s final friendly match before this game against Manchester United, and could find himself even more busy than usual with PSG likely to be without their first choice back four.

Aston Villa drew five saves from Donnarumma, PSG’s goalkeeper at the time, in their 3-2 win over PSG at Villa Park last year - so they are more than capable of carrying an attacking threat in this Super Cup final.