Wednesday

Bristol City v Wolves Tips

Latest tips for Bristol City v Wolves from Andy Robson and his team of experts.

Football

Bristol City v Wolves Bet Builder 🧱 @ 3.90

Andy Robson

Said has had 4 shots on target in his 4 league starts so far

Wolves are the 6th-most fouled team in the Championship so far this season, and tricky winger Rafiki Said is among their hardest players to dispossess.

He’s completed over two successful dribbles per 90 minutes in the league this season, and has attempted 4.55 to the same measure.

Not a player you want to come up against for your second game in five days.

This bet won in Said’s first two league starts, starting Wolves’ last four in a row, but hasn’t in his last two despite completing three dribbles against Cardiff last time out - if he keeps doing that it’s only a matter of time before he draws enough contact to force the referee’s whistle.

In his last two games he’s been subbed off for Mateus Mane, who’s at 2.34 fouls won per 90 in the league.

The likes of Rafiki Said and Fer Lopez have been taking more shots than Armstrong, but he’s still averaging 2.49 per 90 for the season and is a key cog in the attack with Raul Jimenez out injured.

Armstrong is averaging 4.39 touches in the opposition box per 90, out of the players expected to start for Wolves that ranks him 2nd behind Said, and is a figure that if he replicates will give him a good opportunity to land this selection.

Bristol City conceded 11 shots from inside the box last time out, in a 3-2 win at Bolton at the weekend, that is where Armstrong is most dangerous with 18/21 league shots this season coming from inside the area (86%).

Armstrong, now 29, has scored 94 goals in the second tier in his career, he should reach 100 this season and the 3.25 on him getting on the scoresheet also appeals.

Wolves have the joint-4th best attack in the Championship so far this season and their xG data suggests they’re performing in a sustainable way going forward.

They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in nine of 13, which includes conceding in five of their six league away games.

While Wolves can cover this line on their own, Bristol City have been generating better chances than their goals for column would suggest.

Scoring 15 from just under 19 xG, the 3rd-biggest underperformance in the league, and coming off the back of a game where they scored three and generated 3.33 xG on their travels.

With a limited sample size and only four league starts under his belt, the market may still be catching up to just how threatening Said has been since breaking into the side.

The 26-year-old’s first goal contribution came at the weekend when he assisted Adam Armstrong after just 15 minutes, and he’s had four shots on target across those four starts.

The bet won in three of those four starts, it didn’t in a 1-1 draw with Portsmouth where he still had two shots including one from a free kick.

The implied probability of odds of 1.80 is 55.6%, yet it’s landed in 75% of his league starts and he’s coming up against a side who conceded six shots on target to Bolton (19th) on Saturday.

New to bet365?

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim offer
Claim Offer

18+ only. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as bet credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stakes. Time limits and T&Cs Apply. Registration required. #AD.

Tips Feed

Rafiki Said - To Be Fouled 1 Or More Times

8h ago

Adam Armstrong - To Have 2 Or More Shots

8h ago

Over 1.5 - Goals

8h ago

Rafiki Said - To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target

8h ago