The Old Farm derby actually has a lot riding on it on this occasion, it is probably the most important Old Farm since the 2015 Championship play-off semi-finals.

Recent history of the derby suggests that Norwich have had the better of it in recent seasons, until Ipswich got their first derby win since 2009 in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. That match ended 3-1 at Portman Road, so BTTS-Yes landed then, and yet, this was under the management of Liam Manning, which didn’t go well for Norwich generally.

At the moment, under Phillipe Clement, Norwich are flying, They have won 1.88pts per match under Clement, and come into this match having won four of their last six, including an impressive performance and three points at promotion contenders Millwall on Monday. They have scored in 13 of 15 home matches under Clement, averaging 1.8 goals per game and 1.71 xG per game too.

Nine of the 15 home matches of Clement have ended BTTS-Yes as well though, which should give Ipswich some encouragement. The Tractor Boys are, of course, one of the most dangerous attacking teams in the league anyway. They also won last time out, 2-1 at home to Birmingham, and four of their last five matches have been BTTS-Yes, the only one that wasn’t was against Sheffield Wednesday.

Eight of the last 11 East Anglian derbies have ended BTTS-Yes as well, with 1-1 a very popular scoreline within that recent selection as well.

With both teams in good form, and goals a regular occurrence for both, I like the price on both teams getting on the score sheet here.

It is possible that Coventry could seal promotion with a win in this match, depending on results elsewhere, and it seems unlikely for them to slip up here against the worst team in the league.

This is not to underestimate Wednesday though. All season long the Owls have battled hard against the odds and they continued that theme most recently, earning a point against Leicester on Easter Monday. However, the facts are that they have lost their last 11 away matches in a row, and seven of those 11 have seen over 2.5 goals.

Coventry have also been a dominant force at home. They sit top of the home form table with 48 points earned from 20 matches played. They have also scored 43 goals in that time, over two goals per game, and conceded 17, almost one per game. Even more impressively though, their average xG for per home game is up at 2.43, and, actually, the xG against in matches at CBS is higher than goals conceded as well at 1.24.

Seven out of the last eight matches at Coventry have gone over 2.5 goals, with six of those being in Coventry wins.

Sheffield Wednesday may well score here, but that should only help this bet in the long term.

I was close to pulling the trigger on a home win for the bet in this one, but I am a little wary of the Roy Hodgson hoodoo and this new manager bounce that Bristol City seem to be experiencing.

Instead, I am going to lean on what I have seen in QPR’s recent form and data and instead take the BTTS-YES angle here. The last four QPR matches have seen both teams get on the score sheet, 

Looking at QPR at home over a longer period as well, they are averaging 1.71 expected goals per match at home this season, as well as conceding 1.2 xG to their visitors. These are solid numbers for a BTTS-YES bet.

Bristol City created 2.5 xG and scored twice in their last away match at Charlton, and whilst they then got a little fortunate in a home win over Sheffield United when they only had five shots but won, they are enjoying something of a new manager bounce under Roy Hodgson.

They do have a 1.22 xG creation per away match record over the season as a whole, and they concede chances worth over 1.5 goals per game as well away from Ashton Gate.

There is very little on this match, neither team are likely to get into the play-offs or be relegated, so there should be a degree of freedom for the players to play in.

I think that Cardiff are too short for this match.

The Bluebirds have been excellent in League One for the majority of the season, but they are stumbling towards the finish line. They have won only once in their last six matches, so for them to be heavily odds on against a team that would be rated pretty close to them in terms of performance data, seems to be overly tight.

I understand that in their last two draws that Cardiff did dominate chance creation and expected goals against Blackpool and Peterborough, but they were unable to get a winner, and against teams who aren’t of the same quality as Bolton.

Bolton, to be fair, haven’t been racing to the end either. They could’ve been within shouting distance of Cardiff, but often it has been slow starts getting them into trouble. Resilience has been shown though by Bolton to get back into matches, and often late on. Whilst they have also only won one of their last five, they have salvaged draws in three of those matches. Indeed, Bolton have lost only once since the 10th January, one defeat in 16 League One matches.

We should also be mindful of the fact that Bolton beat Cardiff in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. Indeed, Bolton actually have a very good record against their fellow top teams in League One. They lost away at Stockport, but outside of that they have remained unbeaten in 12 other matches against the top ten.

One of the biggest Devonshire derbies in recent years takes place on Saturday lunchtime, with implications at both ends of the League One table. Plymouth are on the charge and making a late challenge for the play-offs with five wins in their last seven matches. Argyle’s home form has been central to their improved form, winning six of nine games as hosts since the turn of the year, and victory will see them move into the top six for the first time this season. 

Exeter’s outlook is much less positive with the Grecians occupying the final relegation spot, despite a much-needed win on Easter Monday that halted a run of 15 games without three points. A change in the dugout, coupled with financial issues off the pitch have sent them spiralling towards League Two, having only won twice on their travels since early October.

A trip to their bitter rivals could well add another nail in their coffin, and see them on their way back to the fourth tier for the first time since 2022.

It wasn't long ago that this match looked as though it could be a relegation six-pointer, but Steve Evans has had the desired effect since his appointment and Bristol Rovers have pulled away from the bottom two and are safe as they approach this match.

However, I don't think that there will be a lack of motivation. There are a lot of players playing for their positions for next season, the club are likely to invest in recruitment this summer, and with Evans ready to embark on his first summer window with the Pirates, he is likely to be making final decisions on some of the current players at this stage.

They are also in great form anyway. Rovers have now won five in a row, all of which against bottom half sides, so they are showing a level of superiority against those lower ranked teams now.

Crawley obviously need the points, but that didn't help them last week as they capitulated at home to Grimsby. They have only three away wins all season, and 13 defeats alongside that.

Rovers’ size of squad seems to be helping them at this stage of the season and I think that their quality will take them to another win here.