I think this is a really solid price for Dowman tonight. He really impressed in the last round against Ipswich, scoring twice in just 47 minutes and receiving the man of the match award. He also registered the most touches of any of Arsenal’s front four (50), as well as taking the joint-most shots in the game with three. 

He started that game in the number 10 position, however looking at his heat map, he tended to drift into his more natural right hand channel. He is set to start on that right-hand side tonight, with an injury to Saka, which I think will only benefit him. 

Fleetwood tend to play with a three-back formation, with a defensive midfielder sitting in front, and I expect them to play quite narrow and compact tonight, so I feel he could get more space in those wider channels to run at the defence.

Given this, he may get opportunities at goal from both inside and outside the box, if Fleetwood are tough to break down. I feel his technical ability works perfectly against a compact team, with his small intricate passing, touches and skills will cause the Fleetwood defence issues. Whilst he is also not afraid to shoot from distance, with one of his three shots against Ipswich coming from outside the box.

Myles Lewis-Skelly is one of the best players for drawing fouls in the Premier League, and I can see him being brought down a few times tonight. 

Whether he’s playing in midfield, or as a left-back, he is averaging 2.37 fouls won per 90, and has drawn at least one foul in each of his six Premier League games, with 2+ landing on four of these occasions. He also drew two fouls against Ipswich in the last round.

He is likely to start in midfield tonight, which makes him a much more appealing option. He is averaging 4.23 duels won per 90, whilst one of his likely opponents in that midfield battle is Fleetwood midfielder Harrison Neal, who is averaging a foul per 90 minutes in League Two. 

Fleetwood are a team who play with a very aggressive press, which has resulted in them receiving the third most cards in League Two this season. While I don’t see them being as aggressive tonight, their natural playstyle does produce plenty of duels, and if anyone on the Arsenal team is going to be brought down, I would expect it to be Lewis-Skelly.

I know that Fleetwood aren’t expected to cause Arsenal any problems here, but having Helm at 1.40 for a single shot seems big for me.

He has taken the most shots for Fleetwood this season, with 29, averaging 2.32 shots per 90. However, what stands out to me is the divide between his shots from outside the box compared to inside. 20 of his 29 shots this season have come from distance, predominantly from that right hand half space that he operates in.

When you look at Arsenal’s oppositions’ shot maps, a large amount of these do come from distance, due to their very strong defensive line, and I feel this could occur again tonight considering the difference in quality on display.

I’ve touched on Harrison Neal earlier in context of his battle with Lewis-Skelly, and I feel he is a really solid choice to commit a foul tonight.

He ranks third across the Fleetwood squad for fouls committed this season and averages 1.00 per 90. Neal plays as a sole defensive midfielder in this Fleetwood side, sitting directly in front of the defence, and loves a duel, averaging 5.54 duels won per 90 as well as 1.77 tackles, which is why I feel he could be heavily involved tonight.

Fleetwood’s formation allows for them to switch from an aggressive 3-1-4-2 to a compact 5-1-2-2, which is what I would imagine them to switch between tonight. This may mean Neal is left to deal with Arsenal’s quality in attack, especially in a transition. 

With very technical dribblers likely to start in Eze and Dowman, I think Neal could have his hands full tonight. Which leads me to look at him for committing fouls.