By the time Ipswich kick off here they will have three games in hand on Millwall, who will be above them in second place. They will know that a win here is a must, and whilst this also can create pressure, which isn't always conducive to good performances, it does focus the mind on knowing that only a win will do.
The Tractor Boys face an out-of-form Blues who now have nothing much to play for, and there seems to have been a sea change in fan perception of head coach Chris Davies, too. Loud boos rang out at St. Andrew's after defeat to Blackburn on Good Friday, and that loss of faith from the stands is indicative of the general malaise that they are seeing from the team on the pitch.
To me it seems like Birmingham are potentially great opponents for Ipswich at this stage. The match between these two at the beginning of the season seemed to show that Birmingham were ready for the step up, but it proved a red herring. Ipswich are not used to teams that come to Portman Road trying to dominate the ball, and I think they will relish the opportunity to have a little more chance to play on transition.
Ipswich have been highly dominant at home all season, with a +1.37 xG differential average across all Championship home games. They average 2.2 xG on their own turf, and only failed to score twice all season.
Meanwhile, Birmingham have been poor away all season. A -0.24 xG differential, but more importantly, only five wins, 12 defeats, and three defeats in a row on the road without scoring leading into this match.
