Wednesday

Lens v Como Tips

Latest tips for Lens v Como from Andy Robson and his team of experts.

Football

Rob's Champions League Best Bet 🇪🇺 @ 2.50

Rob Elder

Paz has drawn six fouls in three Champions League games, 2.07 per 90

Nico Paz is one of the most exciting talents in the world right now and if you haven’t watched him yet, I urge you to.

The Argentine already has five G/A in Como’s three Champions League matches.

He is absolutely vital to Cesc Fabregas’ fluid attacking set-up, which gets the absolute best out of technicians like Paz.

He’s a brilliant dribbler, he creates chances and he scores goals and for sides to beat Como, they have to try and stop him.

That’s been the approach to Paz in the Champions League so far, as he has drawn six fouls in his three Champions League matches.

He’s been fouled twice or more in two of those, including drawing 3 against United, working out at an average of 2.07 times per 90 minutes. 

He’s drawn 1.11 fouls per 90 domestically, which could be higher when you see the amount of times people try to take him down, or an advantage is played.

One of his direct opponents is Mikael Cuiscance.

Cuiscance has committed two or more fouls in three of his last four games. He’s averaged 1.50 per 90 in the Champions League and 1.64 domestically.

His midfield partner, Amadou Haidara, has also fouled in three of his last four matches.

Although primarily a creator, Paz does find himself very high and often acts as a second striker alongside Douvikas.

So, it’s also worth noting that Lens’ back-line do commit a few fouls. Ruben Aguilar has averaged 1.67 per 90 across all competitions.

Udol has averaged 0.80 and Jean Clair-Todibo, who came on at half-time in their last Champions League match, is athas averaged 1.47.

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Football

Wednesday's Champions League Fouls Accumulator 🟨 @ 3.01

Andy Robson

Nkunku has seven fouls in three CL games, more than any Leipzig player

There's always a lot of focus on players like Paz and Baturina when people talk about Como, but 32 year old Luis Milla may just be the most important player in this side - and they got him for free from Getafe over the summer.

Milla registered 10 assists in LaLiga for Getafe last season, which is his standout attribute, but he does have to get through quite a lot of work in the middle of the park as well as being a creative presence on the side.

Milla has committed a foul in all three of his Champions League matches this season, committing multiple fouls in Como's 4-1 win over Leipzig on Matchday 1.

Archie Brown is really strong when it comes to winning fouls, drawing the joint most fouls of any player on the pitch here across all competitions (13 -1.95 per 90).

This is the perfect matchup too, against a Liverpool side who have become way more aggressive under Andoni Iraola - committing more fouls than any other Premier League side (14.22 per game), and committing at least 11 fouls in every game.

Brown has been fouled in all three of his Champions League matches in the league phase, and also won at least one foul in the four qualifying games before that in two legged ties against Lyon and Sturm Graz.

Nkunku is probably not the first player that would come to mind for fouls, but he's got a really consistent record in the Champions League this term and he's been playing just behind the central striker - setting up a battle against Elliot Anderson and Enzo Fernandez.

Nkunku has committed seven fouls across his three appearances in the Champions League this term (2.76 per 90) - more than any other Leipzig player. His role just behind Romulo as the main striker suits Nkunku, I've never seen him as a number nine but this role inevitably leads to Nkunku contesting quite a few duels.

No player on the pitch has won more fouls than Elliot Anderson across all competitions this season (32 - 3.18 per 90). It's an incredibly strong part of his game, and he should be able to tempt Nkunku to commit at least one foul with the two having a direct matchup.

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Football

Wednesday's BTTS Treble ⚽ @ 2.88

Andy Robson

Como have scored ten goals in three Champions League games

Lens haven't kept a clean sheet in either Ligue 1 or the Champions League this season, conceding seven goals in their first three European games.

Como look really dangerous right now, having scored ten goals in three Champions League games, including two 4-1 wins over Leipzig and Manchester United.

Nico Paz has five goals and six assists this season, while Douvikas has already scored eight times.

Lens have been doing pretty well going forward, though, averaging 1.8 goals and more than six shots on target per home game.

Even in their defeat to Sporting, they managed 21 shots and put plenty of pressure on their opponents.

The good news for the home side is that Como have conceded in every away game this season, averaging 1.54 xGA per match.

Both teams have also scored in all three of Como's Champions League games, including their 3-2 defeat to Feyenoord.

Manchester City are going through their worst defensive spell of the season, having conceded in each of their last six games across all competitions.

That's good news for Leipzig, who've won every home game this season, averaging 3.8 goals and more than 19 shots per match.

Antonio Nusa has been their standout player, with four goals and six assists in eight league games.

The problem is that Leipzig have really struggled against stronger opponents in the Champions League, conceding four goals against Como and another four against Real Madrid.

Manchester City have the second-best attack in the Premier League, with 20 goals in nine games, and they're averaging around 2 xG per match.

Both teams have scored in two of City's three Champions League games, and while they might concede again, they should have plenty of chances to score against a Leipzig side that let in six against Bayern in October.

This could be a really exciting game between two inform sides, especially Club Brugge who have won each of their last eight matches - netting 25 goals in the process (3.1 per game).

PSV have conceded an xG of 1.0 or higher in all three of their Champions League matches, seeing BTTS on Matchday 1 as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Shakthar at home.

They put seven goals past Wilhelm at the weekend, which is a snapshot of the scoring power that PSV can possess at home when they are fully firing.

Club Brugge have seen BTTS in two of their three Champions League matches, competing well against Aston Villa and Inter Milan and even winning 4-3 against the latter as the away side.

They've seen BTTS in each of their last two league games ahead of this clash, which is one that both sides will see as pivotal to their chances of progressing from the league phase with more challenging assignments to come.

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Football

Wednesday's Champions League Shots Accumulator 🎯 @ 7.46

Andy Robson

Mbappe has had 2+ shots on target in all three of his CL games this term

Douvikas is developing really well, as are the majority of the players in this Como side, and has scored eight goals across his 13 appearances in all competitions this term.

He's scored three goals across his two starts in the Champions League, taking six shots in the process (2.92 per 90). Four of these have found the target (1.95 per 90), which is an impressive conversion rate.

These trends continue when you look at his domestic numbers. He's scored five goals across just nine starts in Serie A from 28 shots (3.29 per 90), seeing 13 of them find the target (1.53 per 90).

Lens are really vulnerable at the moment, they've failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 12 matches and have conceded at least twice in all three of their Champions League games.

Unsurprisingly, Kylian Mbappe has had more shots on target in the Champions League than any other player on the pitch here (10 - 3.37 per 90).

He's had at least two shots on target in all three of his Champions League matches this term, managing 4+ shots on target in two of these games.

His domestic record is just as appealing, he's had at least one shot on target in 10 of his 11 appearances in LaLiga, having multiple shots on target in eight of these games.

AEK conceded five goals and seven shots on target in their last Champions League game against Man City, Real Madrid should be able to produce similar numbers against a side that has lost four of their last five matches across all competitions.

It's impossible to underestimate the importance of Scott McTominay to this Napoli side. They really lack a threat in the final third and general box presence when McTominay isn't in the side.

McTominay is utilised as a second striker now, there used to be a bit of a debate as to his best role - but he's certainly at his best when arriving as the second runner in the box to get on the end of crosses with Hojlund not being the best with his movement.

McTominay has taken nine shots across his two starts in the Champions League this term (5.40 per 90). He's also taken 17 shots across his six starts in Serie A this term, working out to an average of 2.86 shots per 90.

I've been waiting for Antonio Nusa to have a proper breakout season, and it finally looks like it's come for the winger who has registered 12 goal contributions across his 13 appearances in all competitions.

He's always had this level of talent, but has previously lacked the confidence or clinical edge to add the numbers to his game to be a top winger.

A strong World Cup campaign seems to have given him that confidence, and he comes into this clash having registered a goal contribution in each of his last three appearances.

No Leipzig player has had more shots on target across all competitions than Antonio Nusa (12 - 1.23 per 90), with Nusa having an effort on target against Como and PSV in the Champions League so far.

City are far from settled at the back, and the pace of Nusa could be perfect for the home side as City's high line has been exposed quite regularly over recent weeks.

I'd expect Mikel Arteta to rotate here, and Merino should be part of those changes - either in midfield or as a number nine.

Despite Havertz and Gyokeres being the two main striker options that Arteta has rotated between over the last year, I still think Merino is the best finisher at the club.

He scored twice when Arsenal travelled to Slavia Prague in the league phase last season, which is a good example of the threat he can pose.

He's incredibly good in the air, which could be useful for Arsenal here against a Slavia Prague side who will most definitely sit quite deep.

Merino scored four goals across 10 starts in the Premier League last season, averaging 0.70 shots on target per 90 across those games. If you look at the games where he played as a number nine, that number jumps to 1.30 shots on target per 90.

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Tips Feed

Anastasios Douvikas - To Have 1+ Shots On Target

11h ago

Luis Milla - To Commit 1 Or More Fouls

10h ago

Yes - Both Teams to Score

6h ago

Nico Paz - To Be Fouled 2 Or More Times

3h ago