
League One
England
Luton
Tomorrow
Peterborough
ABC Tips
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Bradford have been a little complacent over recent weeks, but should be able to return to form here against a struggling Northampton side. Bradford sit fourth in League One, and currently have a five point buffer to the chasing pack - which isn’t a massive gap in the lower divisions.
Bradford boast the second strongest home record in League One this term, only the league leaders in Lincoln have won more games at home (15) than Bradford (14) this season. Bradford have only lost two of these matches, only Lincoln and Bolton have lost fewer games in front of their own supporters this term.
It’s hard to see how Northampton will get any joy here when looking over their away record. They’ve only won three of their 20 away matches in League One, conceding 35 goals across these games. Only Rotherham (11) have picked up fewer points on the road than Northampton (13) in League One this term.
Northampton’s recent form is another reason to back Bradford for all three points here, the away side enter this contest having lost each of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently crumbling to a 4-1 defeat to Mansfield on the road.
MK Dons ran out 2-0 winners over Barrow when the sides met earlier in the season, and I can see another routine victory for the home side here as they look to secure an automatic promotion spot.
MK Dons were comfortable in victory on that occasion, racking up an xG of 1.50 from 12 shots overall. They also limited Barrow to zero shots on target, suggesting that Barrow may struggle to land any real serious blows on MK Dons here.
MK Dons have saved their best displays for their away games, but their home form is still strong with Paul Warne’s side avoiding defeat in 16 of their 20 home matches, winning 11 of these games.
Barrow did manage to earn a surprise 2-1 win over Bromley last time out, but this was almost certainly an anomaly when looking at their record throughout the season. Prior to that victory, Barrow had gone eight games without a win - losing six of these games.
A similar pattern emerges when looking at their last victory before that triumph against Bromley, which was a 1-0 win over Colchester - a victory that came following six straight defeats. Barrow have only won four of their 20 away games in League Two this term, conceding 38 goals in the process.
The initial league meeting between these sides produced five goals as West Brom earned a 3-2 win over Wrexham. That game saw a combined xG of 4.38, and although the fortunes of both sides have changed quite dramatically since that game - we should still see a clash with at least two goals.
Wrexham have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions. Wrexham’s 19 away games in the Championship have seen 45 goals, working out to an average of 2.36 goals per game. They should have plenty of motivation as well here, they’re only outside of the playoff spots on goal difference which can help to spur them on to contribute to the goal count.
West Brom are fighting at the other end of the table, with only four points keeping them from the drop zone. They’ve seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, and have seen 46 goals across their 19 home games (2.42 per game).
These sides are very closely matched, only one spot and five points separates them in League One and Peterborough still have a game in hand to close that gap to just two points.
Both sides will still feel as though they have an outside chance of making the playoffs - a win for Luton could move them to within three points of the playoff spots if other results go their way so this is a massive game for both sides.
Luton have been an entertaining side to watch under Jack Wilshere, they’ve seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions. This actually stretches to Luton’s last nine games, so goals at both ends have been a regular occurrence for Luton of late.
Peterborough have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of a 5-0 hammering of a struggling Rotherham side. Peterborough have seen 52 goals across their 20 away matches in League One this term (2.6 per game), notably only drawing two of these games.
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This is a massive game at both ends of the table in the Championship with Wrexham knocking on the door of the playoffs and West Brom seeking to avoid dropping down to League One for the first time in their modern history.
This selection landed when the sides met earlier in the season, with West Brom coming away 3-2 winners on that occasion. Both sides registered an xG in excess of 2.0 in that game (2.01-2.37) with the game seeing seven big chances.
This selection has landed in four of Wrexham’s last five matches in the Championship, suggesting that they regularly see end to end games. Their 19 away games in the Championship have produced 45 goals (2.36 per game) and a draw does very little for their playoff hopes with Wrexham being in direct contention with Southampton and Derby for a playoff spot.
Luton have seen BTTS in each of their last nine matches across all competitions, with this specific selection landing in five of these games. They’ve taken on quite a positive approach under the tutelage of Jack Wilshere, with their home games being particularly entertaining (2.6 goals per game).
These sides are really well matched, Luton sit just one spot above Peterborough in League One and the away side could cut the gap between the sides to just two points with victory here, while also holding a game in hand on Luton.
Peterborough have only drawn two of their 20 away games in League One this season, with these games also producing 52 goals - once again showing just how closely matched these sides are. They’ve lost 11 of these games, which should offer encouragement for Luton - but the 22 goals that Peterborough have scored on the road this season indicates that they’ll still be able to carry an attacking threat here.
Barnsley have been pretty woeful defensively all season, and this is reflected in their clean sheet numbers. Barnsley have only kept two clean sheets in League One all season, five fewer than the next lowest tally, a spot filled by Wimbledon.
Barnsley have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, they have drawn three of these games, but this isn’t too common when Barnsley take to the road with only six draws from their 17 away assignments this term. Barnsley have seen 54 goals across these games (3.17 per game).
Burton find themselves in a precarious situation a bit further down the table with only three points keeping them from safety. They aren’t too much better at keeping clean sheets than Barnsley, with only six sides keeping fewer shut outs in League One this term.
The initial league meeting between these sides saw this selection land as Barnsley came away 3-2 winners over Burton at home. That game saw these sides combine to generate an xG of 4.51 (2.55-1.96) setting the stage for another end to end game that produces a winner.
This selection has landed in each of the last two head to head meetings between these sides, with Salford winning both of those games by 2-1 and 3-1 scorelines.
These sides are in direct competition with each other to finish in a playoff spot, with Notts County looking to cling onto their automatic promotion spot. Notts County have seen this selection land in two of their last five matches across all competitions, they are quite strong defensively but notably have only drawn four of their 20 away matches in League Two this season.
This lines up really well with Salford’s home record, they’ve only drawn three of their 20 home matches in League Two this term - and all a draw does for these teams is provide more encouragement to the others battling for the automatic promotion spots, with the race looking tighter every passing week.


