Leicester haven’t earned the right to take this game lightly.
This bet wins if they win by three or more goals.
They’re still three points off the play-offs and seven back from automatic promotion - which would’ve been the aim pre-season.
They, and Russell Martin, have a lot to lose heading into this game, it’s only just over five years since they won the whole competition, and now they’re at Oxford City in the first round.
There’s 64 places between these two in the pyramid - 10th in League One to 2nd in National League North - yet the bookies are pricing it up like they’re of a similar level.
Last Saturday, Middlesbrough went off 1.15 to beat Charlton and Stockport went off 1.25 to beat AFC Wimbledon.
Arsenal went off 1.18 to beat Coventry earlier in the season.
This weekend Leicester are 1.33 to win at Oxford City, over double the odds of Boro last weekend to beat Charlton, and Leicester aren’t in a position to rest and rotate, they need to play a strong team to ensure they avoid embarrassment.
A reason for this price is that they’re playing away from home (it’s a relatively short journey of under two hours), and Oxford City play on an artificial pitch.
While Oxford City’s experience on this surface helps, I don’t think it’ll concern Leicester as much as it would other sides.
Russell Martin likes to keep the ball on the ground and the consistent surface will aid that, and lots of their players have recently made the step up from youth football where these surfaces are more commonly used.
Will Alves, 21, Louis Page, 18, Sammy Braybrooke, 22, and Kamari Doyle, 21, all started their 2-2 draw with Stevenage last weekend.
Leicester need to build confidence and faith in this project, and playing against a side who’ve already lost to Buxton, Telford and South Shields this season should help them in doing that.
A ladder bet appeals on this game, splitting, not increasing, the stake across the -1 @ 1.95, -2 @ 3.30, -3 @ 6.50 and -4 @ 13.0 is an option to capitalise if Leicester do run away with it.
Leicester have scored twice or more in four of five in League One; they're capable of doing so again and building on that against this level of opposition.
