
UEFA Champions League
International Clubs
Real Madrid
Tomorrow
Bayern Munich
ABC Tips
Andy's Tuesday UCL Cross-Match Bet Builder @ 4.00
Viktor Gyokeres has improved as the season has unfolded, netting 17 goals in his 43 appearances across all competitions with 10 of these goals coming since the turn of the year.
He’s playing with plenty of confidence right now having scored in both games for Sweden over the international break which helped them to secure a spot at the World Cup in the summer. He also marked his return to domestic duties with a goal against Southampton as Arsenal exited the FA Cup.
Gyokeres has scored four goals across his seven starts in the Champions League this season, managing 22 shots across these games (3.57 per 90), with 11 of these efforts finding the target (1.78 per 90). He should be motivated to extend this decent record when he lines up against his former club.
These metrics are an improvement on his domestic stats, which suggests that Gyokeres prefers playing in the Champions League compared to the Premier League - probably because of the extra time and space he gets in Europe given the slightly slower pace of games.
I think Zubimendi has been brilliant for Arsenal over the course of the season. He’s attracted some criticism recently, but I think you could extend that to the entirety of the Arsenal squad with Mikel Arteta’s side exiting two cup competitions across their last two matches.
Zubimendi only played 11 minutes against Southampton, so should be fit enough to start here, he committed a foul in the cup final just before the international break and has committed 27 fouls across his 30 starts in the Premier League this season (0.93 per 90).
Zubimendi has also committed a crazy 17 fouls across his eight starts in the Champions League this season (2.25 per 90) - a massive increase on his numbers in the Premier League which I found quite interesting as you’d expect his numbers in the more intense competition to be more inflated.
This is a good sign for our selection though, and possibly even warrants testing higher lines for Zubimendi fouls. His direct opponent here is likely to be Trincao who has won seven fouls across his nine starts in the Champions League this season (0.81 per 90).
Kylian Mbappe cut a bit of a frustrated figure over the weekend as Real Madrid lost ground in the title race with a 2-1 defeat to Mallorca on the road. Mbappe was very lively in that game, and should have really scored, with six shots overall - seeing three of these attempts find the target.
Mbappe walked away with a personal xG tally of 0.59, accounting for a large chunk of the 1.28 xG that Real Madrid generated in the game overall. He’s been brilliant in the Champions League this season, netting 13 goals across eight starts from a crazy 46 shots (5.66 per 90). 24 of these efforts have found the target (2.95 per 90) - giving Mbappe really healthy underlying metrics for our selection.
Unsurprisingly, Mbappe is the top scorer in the Champions League this season which remains the case if you look at his open play goals (10). He’s also pitched in with three penalties, which can act as a route to goal for Mbappe if he doesn’t quite get the opportunities to find the target at least twice from open play.
This looks like it’s going to be a really fun tie. Real Madrid lost more ground in the LaLiga title race over the weekend as they lost 2-1 to Mallorca while Barcelona registered a 2-1 win over Atletico Madrid. This is important because it leaves the Champions League as the most achievable trophy for Real Madrid, a success which is expected at a club the size of Real Madrid despite the turbulence which has hit the club throughout the season.
Real Madrid have seen BTTS in each of their last four matches across all competitions. This includes victories over the likes of Atletico Madrid and Manchester City, so Real Madrid aren’t struggling massively at the moment but it is clear that their defensive solidity is lacking right now. This has been the case all season with injuries and poor recruitment contributing to a backline which is constantly changing and vulnerable to the attacking talent of Bayern Munich.
Bayern Munich have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, I’d also say they are a bit of a top heavy side in that their attacking talent far exceeds the quality of their backline. With both sides clearly having incredible attacking quality, it’s hard to see how both sides don’t end up on the scoresheet in the first leg of this quarter final clash.


