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I still really like Darwin Nunez. He falls into that bracket of player for me where he probably won’t ever truly be elite, but his presence and shot volume make him such a handful for defenders that I think he’s worth having in a side with more efficient attacking talent around him.

He’s Uruguay’s best forward option at the moment and enjoyed a pretty decent season in Saudi Arabia, registering 10 goal contributions across just 14 starts. He's still very willing to take on shots, averaging 3.09 per 90 across the season as a whole, with 23 of these efforts finding the target (1.65 per 90).

He’s scored 13 goals across 38 caps for Uruguay, and I think he’ll be a real threat here to a pretty vulnerable Saudi Arabia backline. He scored five goals for Uruguay during qualifying, maintaining an average of 1.20 shots on target per 90.

Uruguay’s shot line is set around 14/15 shots here depending on where you look, and I think Valverde can contribute to that tally with a few attempts.

He’s easily the best player in this Uruguay side and is usually given quite a bit of freedom by Marcelo Bielsa to get forward. Valverde scored two goals for Uruguay during qualifying, averaging 1.89 shots per 90 across his 14 starts.

He enjoyed his second-ever best scoring season for Madrid during the 25/26 campaign (11), and I think he will continue to build on that confidence in front of goal with a few efforts here.

Saudi Arabia showed plenty of aggression during qualifying, collecting 28 cautions across their 12 matches (2.33 per game).

They averaged 9.20 fouls committed per game, which is a rate that is bound to rise at the World Cup given that they are now lining up against vastly superior sides to those they faced during qualifying.

Saudi Arabia’s best chance here is to slow the game down as much as possible. I see them engaging with Uruguay in central areas frequently in an attempt to stifle their rhythm - which should lead to at least two cards for the underdogs.

Sergio Rochet lined up in goal for Uruguay during qualifying and was called into action 37 times across his 14 appearances (2.64 per 90), maintaining a save percentage of 82.2%.

Fernando Muslera is expected to replace him in the starting lineup for this opening game. He’s got a lot of experience at this level and is still a decent shot stopper, having kept six clean sheets across 12 starts during the 25/26 season with a save average of 1.91 stops per 90.

I think Saudi Arabia can cause a few issues for the South American side in transition. The line for Uruguay to make a single save here is as short as 1.17; I don’t think the gap between that and the second save is as big as the odds are suggesting.

Uruguay averaged 4.39 corners per game during qualifying, winning 4+ corners in 50% of their matches.

Saudi Arabia only conceded 3.67 corners per game, but this is another metric that will definitely increase during the World Cup, with Saudi Arabia taking on a higher level of opponent.

Uruguay racked up six corners in their final warm-up game for the tournament against Algeria and should be able to cover this corner line as the dominant side.