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Brazil come into this game likely needing a victory to stand a shot of top spot in the group, and it’s a win they should secure.

The individual talents of their wingers Vinicius Junior and whoever is chosen to replace the injured Raphinha – Rayan looks the likely candidate – should provide the Selecao with a reliable route to goal against a team whose weakness lies in its backline.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side have won four of their last five, and against a Scotland team that has never really shown up in any of its recent eight major tournament matches, they should have enough to get over the line.

Backing Scotland to rack up a sizeable foul looks a strong bet given that Steve Clarke’s side will want to disrupt Brazil at every opportunity they get.

While Scotland averaged 12.67 fouls in qualifying, that has ramped up to 16.0 in the finals. Even with a referee willing to let the game flow against Morocco, they still gave away 11 fouls. Brazil, meanwhile, have averaged 13.5 fouls won across their two matches.

With players willing to take their opponents on, they have the personnel to win a high free-kick count against a rival who will do everything to prolong their World Cup hopes.

Brazil picking up at least one card per match has been reliable during Carlo Ancelotti’s reign at the head of the Selecao.

They have earned 1+ card in 22 of their last 24 matches, even contriving to pick up a booking against Haiti in their last game when cruising at 3-0 up. With yellow cards being wiped at the end of the qualifying stage, it leaves only full-back Douglas Santos and Casemiro as starters, having to watch their step in this match.

Scotland, meanwhile, have troublesome players who will seek to draw fouls from their opponents and have the capacity to be irritating and therefore cause errors of judgement.

Brazil will be the team in the ascendancy in this game, dominating territory and bossing possession against an opponent likely to be content to sit deep and defend, probably even more than Haiti, against whom they took their foot off the gas at half-time after cruising into a 3-0 lead.

This is likelier to be a tougher challenge and will, ironically, result in greater domination. Ancelotti’s side averaged 5.17 corners per match during the qualifying phase and have picked up an average of 4.5 corners across their matches thus far. Scotland conceded four corners against Haiti and five against Morocco.

Committing fouls is standard for Bruno Guimaraes, who rarely plays a game without winning at least two fouls.

He extended his streak of picking up 2+ fouls in a match to 10 games with club and country by doing so against Haiti. Scotland’s central midfielders, meanwhile, will be expected to be physical, but they are also likely to fatigue in the Miami heat.

On top of this, at the time of writing, Scott McTominay and Lewis Ferguson had covered more ground than any other player at the World Cup, and this cumulative tiredness could well lead to errors, opponents getting away from them, and cheap fouls as a consequence.

Scotland will be holding nothing back in this match, and that will mean walking a fine line in a disciplinary fashion.

That promises to be difficult to do against a Brazil side whose opponents have picked up 3+ cards in three of their last six matches. Clarke’s side are not known for a soft-touch approach and have already picked up three cards against Haiti. Unlike some teams who will be able to manage their discipline, the Scots have to put everything on the line.

Mexican referee Cesar Ramos has been subject to a complaint from Brazil, which will put more pressure on him and could see him take a heavier hand towards their opponents. He is already a card-happy official, with 5.15 cards per match, his average this season.

Scotland’s weak point in defence is the right full-back area, where there are doubts over the fitness of Aaron Hickey.

With Everton’s Nathan Patterson set to step in, he is a notable downgrade, and the prospect of going up against Vinicius Junior is a real worry for the Scots. After scoring a brilliant solo effort against Morocco, Vini netted against Haiti and led the way with a team-high three shots, two of which were on target.

With Brazil primarily reliant on the type of individualism he thrives on to score their goals, he will be heavily involved and has the potential to really torment the Scots.

Ferguson has been outstanding for Scotland in the heart of the midfield, providing an excellent defensive base for his side.

One of the most notable aspects of his play has been his ability to win free kicks. He has picked up nine in total, which at the time of writing was the 3rd highest figure in the whole competition. The Bologna midfielder is intelligent with his body placement to win fouls, and this will be a target of his against Brazil in order to relieve pressure from the defence.

Likely head-to-head opponents include Lucas Paqueta (2.14 fouls per 90) and Bruno Guimaraes (1.11 fouls per 90).

As Scotland’s outlet, there’s a lot expected of Che Adams, who will be tasked with putting himself about up front and disrupting the Brazil defence.

He is a physical player with a track record of committing 2+ fouls in a game. He has done this in four of Scotland’s last seven competitive matches. While he will not last 90 minutes, his likely replacement is Lyndon Dykes, who has committed two fouls in just 36 minutes at the World Cup so far.

With Gabriel, a player who has made buying free kicks an art form this season, there is strong value to be found here.