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Friendly fixtures can be tricky to read, but Japan look well placed to avoid defeat at Hampden on Saturday evening. Scotland exceeded expectations by topping their World Cup qualifying group, though it would be fair to say there was more than a hint of good fortune in some of their victories.

Steve Clarke’s side laboured to wins over Belarus both home and away, and found themselves 3-0 down in Greece on matchday five. What’s more, a red card proved pivotal in the Scots’ favour when overcoming Denmark on matchday six.

Japan, by contrast, navigated their path to this year’s World Cup with far greater authority, sweeping aside most of the opposition in front of them and doing so while scoring goals by the bucket load. In fact, Hajime Moriyasu’s side lost just one of their 10 matches during qualification - a narrow 1-0 defeat away at Australia - so they will arrive at Hampden in high spirits. The Samurai Blue also won each of their final three friendly fixtures at the tail end of 2025, including a memorable 3-2 victory over Brazil.

With both sides able to approach this friendly fixture with a relaxed mindset, I think a strong case can be made for both teams to get on the scoresheet. Unsurprisingly for a Scotland side under Steve Clarke’s stewardship, there was no shortage of goal-heavy encounters during their World Cup qualifying campaign. In fact, both teams found the net in each of Scotland’s final four qualifiers, with all four contests also clearing the over 2.5 goals line.

It was a similar story in the Scots’ most recent Nations League campaign, where four of their six matches saw both sides contribute to the scoring. While Japan were a well-oiled machine during World Cup qualifying and kept clean sheets in several of their victories, recent friendlies suggest they are not entirely watertight at the back.

The Samurai Blue drew 2-2 with Paraguay in September, before coming from 2-0 down to beat Brazil 3–2 the following month. With all that in mind, goals at both ends look well worth backing at Hampden on Saturday evening.

It’s hard to look past Scott McTominay in the shots on target market for Scotland on Saturday evening. The 29-year-old has been a talismanic presence for the Tartan Army for several years, and the most recent qualifying campaign was no exception. McTominay - who scored crucial goals in Scotland’s home fixtures against Belarus and Denmark - averaged 1.84 shots per game, with 1.01 of those hitting the target.

A closer look shows he tested the opposition goalkeeper in five of his six appearances during World Cup qualifying, including multiple on-target efforts in the home clash with Belarus. The argument is bolstered by his club form, too, with McTominay averaging 1.13 shots per 90 for Napoli in Serie A this season.

Further encouragement comes from the fact that Japan have conceded multiple goals in two of their last four friendlies, making McTominay well placed to register at least one shot on target at Hampden on Saturday evening.

I think Grant Hanley looks worth backing to commit at least one foul against Japan on Saturday. The veteran defender’s inclusion in the latest Scotland squad has split opinion among the Tartan Army, but it is no real surprise given he remains one of the players Steve Clarke has shown consistent loyalty to throughout his tenure.

Across his four appearances during the World Cup qualifying campaign, Hanley committed a foul in two of those outings, while the same was also true in both legs of Scotland’s Nations League play-off tie with Greece last March.

It is also worth noting that Hanley has been committing his fair share of fouls in the Scottish top-flight with Hibernian this term, averaging 0.73 per game and overstepping the mark a combined total of four times across his last five appearances.

With his game time limited at club level in recent weeks, Hanley could well be in line for a run-out here. As such, the 34-year-old may be a little rusty when coming up against a Japan side likely to be full of energy and flair in forward areas, which only adds to the appeal of backing the Scotland centre half to commit 1+ foul.